Score VS Win Rate?
- Thread starter shinyam
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Sonny
Well-Known Member
You can double your win rate just by doubling your bet sizes, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea. The win rate alone doesn't give you enough information to know which game is better. The purpose of SCORE is to standardize the bankroll size, game speed and risk tolerance. The SCORE is a win rate (in dollars) based on certain assumptions, which makes it much easier to compare games.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
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x2. SCORE is a standardized win rate. Read chapter 9 "Blackjack attack III" by Don Schlesinger.
If you play a lousy game with a low score, but bet big enough to have a high win rate, then the risk is greater because there will be a higher Standard Deviation, right?
Suppose you were forced to play between one of the two games, and could not make any further adjustements (you couldn't ramp up the bets for the first game to make a higher win rate), which would you choose?
Suppose you were forced to play between one of the two games, and could not make any further adjustements (you couldn't ramp up the bets for the first game to make a higher win rate), which would you choose?
I would play the game with the higher SCORE.
But in the long run, wouldn't the one with the lower score be better, if you had a large enough bankroll?
My BR is small. Game selection is my most important consideration. I am always amazed by the guys that want to throw a huge spread at a crap game. Next thing you know they are crying about their huge swings of negative variance.
Game #1. If you're betting exactly the same stakes Game #2 with SCORE $25 has to have half the win rate of Game #1. By definition the only way Game 2 can have a 60% higher win rate with 50% lower SCORE is for you to use completely different unit sizes and/or maximum bets. (i.e., you'd have to bet 120% bigger units)
In otherwords, the premise of your question is dumb. Now if you want to know if you should play a game with a SCORE of $50 where the casino is sweaty and will back you off and fax your photo everywhere if you try to play more than an hour a day versus playing a game with a SCORE of $25 that the casino lets you play 10 hours a day 7 days a week with no heat table hopping as much as you want...you should play the $25 SCORE game. Remember 2hrs with a SCORE of $25 is exactly the same as 1hr with a SCORE of $50.
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The game with the higher score has a lower limit, and the max bet I can get down allows only for a 50 dollar win rate. The other place is sweatier, and I only want to play one hand at all times to prevent detection as a card counter. It has worse pen as well, which lowers the SCORE further, but I can get a higher win rate since I can get more money down. The betting schedules are very different also due to other constraints.
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SleightOfHand
Well-Known Member
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N0 (pronounced N-Zero) is the number of rounds you have to play before your accumulated expectation (expected win) exceeds one standard deviation of accumulated variance.
DI Desirability Index is based on Sharpe Ratio. Divide the Win Rate for a given game by it's Standard Deviation and multiply by 100. It was developed by Don Schlesinger. It's use has fallen out of favor as players now prefer SCORE to describe game quality. SCORE, as it happens, is the same thing as DI^2 (DI squared). DI of 7.07 = SCORE of $50.00 = N0 of 20,000 rounds
CE - Certainty Equivalent is the a mathematical way of comparing an expected return that carries a set amount of risk and with a risk free guaranteed payoff. For even-money wagers like blackjack when bets are properly sized it turns out that CE is generally about 50% of expectation.