Please Help Need Some Advice

[EasyRhino]

Well, playing more hands would reduce the win percentage to something more reasonable. 750 wins out of 2000-2400 hands is more normal. But it would have also increased the risk of a ten-string of losses (which I can't compute).

Maybe I just got lucky.

If you did that well with a Martingale and a no-bust strategy, your money probably would have been better used buying lotto tickets that weekend.

... so, did you get any heat from the casino?

 

[Sonny]

And for the table limit, check for yourself: Horseshoe Casino * Council Bluffs, IA * 712-329-6000

$5 Min / $5000 Max

As of last June the limits were $5-$1,000 and $25-$10,000. They must have raised the limits for some reason.

I understand that at some point you would eventually take an approx $5000 loss and lose ten in a row, but wouldn't it be well less than the profits I am going to make weekly?

Nope. You will lose $5,000 more often than you earn $5,000 so you will always be playing a losing game. The house is always more likely to win the next hand. You are always the underdog. It doesn't matter how many hands you lose in a row, you are still most likely going to lose the next one. Raising your bets will only make you lose more money.

And what if your first series is that 10-hand loss? Then you’ll be spending the rest of your blackjack career trying to dig yourself out of debt only to hit more losing streaks before you ever see a profit.

You can’t realistically expect to beat blackjack when you don’t even know how to play properly or bet your money properly. If beating blackjack was that easy then everyone would be doing it. Be honest with yourself here. You’ve experienced some beginner’s luck and now you think you’re luckier than everyone else. That is simply not true. You have not invented a magic system that will bring you guaranteed wealth.

Maybe I just got lucky.

Maybe not. You managed to win some money by playing atrociously. Just imagine how much you could have won if you were playing properly! In a way, even though you got lucky you still lost money. You could have had much more if you knew what you were doing.


-Sonny-

 

[ScottH]

The house is always more likely to win the next hand.

Ehh...

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
The house is always more likely to win the next hand.

Ehh...

i was thinking about that statement also. while i don't believe it's 100% accurate well it might as well be.
it's certainly a good psychological position from which to view the game and a good point upon which to base your expectations even when you do realize some small advantage. we are after all still gambling even when playing with that advantage when you consider ROR.

 

[Sonny]

i was thinking about that statement also. while i don't believe it's 100% accurate well it might as well be.

Alright, you caught me! It's not 100% accurate, maybe only 95% accurate for good players. I think that at a TC of +7 (a little fuzzy on the exact number) the odds slowly drift in favor of the player in terms of win/loss ratios. In any case, you are likely to lose the next hand about 95% of the time. In Mmmmkk's case, because of his terrible playing strategy, he was probably never the favorite.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

Alright, you caught me! It's not 100% accurate, maybe only 95% accurate for good players. I think that at a TC of +7 (a little fuzzy on the exact number) the odds slowly drift in favor of the player in terms of win/loss ratios. In any case, you are likely to lose the next hand about 95% of the time. In Mmmmkk's case, because of his terrible playing strategy, he was probably never the favorite.

-Sonny-

good grief, i never realized the player win/loss ratio was that severe even at positive true counts .
makes one wonder at how we ever come out ahead.

 

[Sonny]

good grief, i never realized the player win/loss ratio was that severe even at positive true counts .
makes one wonder at how we ever come out ahead.

Yeah it can be a bit overwhelming, especially with those big bets out. High counts do not mean that we will win more often, only that we will win more money on the hands that we do manage to win. That means things like blackjacks, doubles, splits and dealer busts make those hands more valuable to us. It is similar to the insurance bet. Even though you lose the bet most of the time (well over 50%) it is still +EV because you are winning more than 1 unit when you win.

-Sonny-

 

[Cardcounter]

Odds of dealer not busting in 10 hands in a row!

Before you see the dealers upcard the dealer will bust on average 30% of the time giving him an overall percentage of making a hand at 70%.
.7^10= .02825% of not busting at all in 10 consective hands so it is about a 35.4 to 1 shot that he won't bust in 10 hands. Your risk factor is just to big to make $5 you are risking over $5,000 to make $5 sure most of the time you will succed in making the $5 but the one time you don't succed you will have lost more than all the times you succed making $5! Plus you throw in the fact that your program won't allow you to double or split with a large bet being able to double or split is very important. Your stragedy might be useful for tournaments when you are trying to get to a certain number of chips but don't play it for real money.

 

[person1125]

Come on guys this seems pretty simple. Progressive systems with no bust strategy WILL NOT WORK IN THE LONG RUN. Maybe in the short run (a day a weekend?), but not over a long time. Oh the casino does exist I grew up in that area and know it's there.

 

[captdbldown]

The Horseshoe Council Bluffs does indeed have $5-5000 limits for anyone who is questioning that part of this story.

6 deck shoe, H17, DOA, DAS, split up to 4 hands, no surrender, no resplit of aces. A few hand shuffled games in the main gaming area, everything else is machine shuffled.

High limit room is $25 or $50-10,000 with same rules except for S17 and 100% of the games are hand shuffled.

 

[mdlbj]

mmmk,

I would if I were you take your winnings and save them until you are playing with an advantage. Continue to learn how to count and forget about a martingale system. Its easy to justify your method with a win like you have had yet, you will loose that and more in time.

 

[Kasi]

Before you see the dealers upcard the dealer will bust on average 30% of the time giving him an overall percentage of making a hand at 70%.
.7^10= .02825% of not busting at all in 10 consective hands so it is about a 35.4 to 1 shot that he won't bust in 10 hands. .

Well, while perhaps true, I'm assuming even our original poster would hit his 8, 9 & 10 totals allowing for the dealer to "make a hand" but still lose. And in head-to-head games the deler bust % of total hands played would go way down because he won't playout his hand when the player busts. I would think.

Anyway, using the classic W 0.4331, lose 0.4789 and tie 0.088 percentages. the odds of the delaer winning 10 in a row, ignoring ties, would be 0.5251096^10 or 0.001594.

So if the chances of something happening is p, then the chances of it happening at least once in n tries is 1-(1-p)^n. So I get the chances of the deler not winning 10 in a row at least once in 2000-2400 tries in the 95-98+% range.

And that's with perfect BS. So count ur blessings Mmmmmkk!