golfnut101
Well-Known Member
Is this one worth counting ? 8d, S17, DAS, DOA, NS, dealer peeks.
Some say yes, some no.
Some say yes, some no.
8d with .47 house edge
- Thread starter golfnut101
- Start date
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
You'd really need to backcount the game and do some serious wonging. Messing with 8D in a play-all environment is absolutely horrible to both your EV and your variance.
8D games are really a study in wasting time. You're either wasting time backcounting, waiting for the count to finally shift somewhere good, or, even worse, you're wasting your time playing in negative counts, waiting for the count to move somewhere good.
8D games are really a study in wasting time. You're either wasting time backcounting, waiting for the count to finally shift somewhere good, or, even worse, you're wasting your time playing in negative counts, waiting for the count to move somewhere good.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Can't agree totally- 6D is only marginally better than 8D. True, it takes longer to get to a good count, but the good count lasts longer. You really want to be Wonging out of any shoe game, and backcounting when practical. You unbalanced count guys though, you have to be careful with big shoes, easy to trip yourself up!
The game described is a typical Atlantic City game. All you are really looking for is good penetration, then go beat on it with a big spread. And by all means get the heck out of bad counts!
golfnut101
Well-Known Member
What do you mean Monkey ?
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Well, besides the obvious danger of "pulling a Rhino" and not even noticing the correct number of decks in the shoe in the first place, the other downside of wonging into shoes with an unbalance count is that the wong-in point is "mushy", and the ideal running count at which to wong in will vary at different levels of penetration.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
I mean if you are using KO or another unbalanced count, your count is only truly accurate at the middle of the shoe or some other point determined by your IRC. E.g. if your RC in KO is -8 after 1 deck dealt out in an 8D game, you have a significant advantage, but if it's -8 after 6 decks you have no advantage, in fact you have a neutral shoe. So if you find a deeply dealt game you can be raising your bet into a negative EV situation, and I have actually seen this happen at the table. The effect on playing indices is even stronger. And it's worse still if you are not using a spread and index set specifically calibrated for 8D games. Sure, you are still playing with an advantage and in the long run it will usually balance out, but I once got hammered by variance using a level 3 unbalanced count on big shoes and since sworn that kind of system off, opting instead for a balanced count in shoe games.
Mimosine
Well-Known Member
then why does KO perform slightly better than hi/lo?
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Wait a minute, they are not stupid. They're very powerful. Just not always the best choice for 6D and 8D games. If I was playing nothing over 2 decks I'd be using nothing but unbalanced counts.
Note however, that "half-rank-unbalanced-counts" such as Red 7 or KISS don't have this problem. With KISS for example, in a six deck game using its IRC of "9" and its key count of "20", that "20" running count will be equal to between +1.8 true and +1.3 true whether one deck has been dealt, or 4.5 decks. (Notice also that the +1.3 true count comes with only 1.5 decks left which blends harmoneously with the floating advantage).
Continued
For this reason, wonging in with Red 7 or KISS works excellently -- even if you walk up to a table where a half deck has already been dealt.
Wonging out however, is a bit stickier if you want to do it at various shoe depths. The book simply recommends wonging out at the 1.5 dealt deck mark if the R/C is "4" or lower (-1.75 true).
For this reason, wonging in with Red 7 or KISS works excellently -- even if you walk up to a table where a half deck has already been dealt.
Wonging out however, is a bit stickier if you want to do it at various shoe depths. The book simply recommends wonging out at the 1.5 dealt deck mark if the R/C is "4" or lower (-1.75 true).
golfnut101
Well-Known Member
question for Mr. Renzey
Thanks for weighing in on this. For a 1-10 spread playing nickels, how much accuracy are we talking about using KO-P vs KISS III or Red 7 for example ?
Thanks for weighing in on this. For a 1-10 spread playing nickels, how much accuracy are we talking about using KO-P vs KISS III or Red 7 for example ?
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Yes, that is one nice feature of them, they can track the floating advantage. I used to use BRH-1 which is level 3 and it did a great job of that. Still, there is a little bit of a discrepancy at the extremes of a 8D shoe. The indices are also a problem, especially the most important one which is 16 vs. 10. There's really no way to compensate for that one without deck estimation.
golfnut101
Well-Known Member
KO RC-TC Chart
Does the chart created by KORob eleviate some of the late shoe inadequacies
that are spoken of relating to shoe games ?
Does the chart created by KORob eleviate some of the late shoe inadequacies
that are spoken of relating to shoe games ?
No is my short answer lol.
But that's because that's what other people convinced me of.
You don't mention penetration or bankroll. I don't think u can spread 1-10 if u backcount.
But, hey, get a plan and do it if u want.
golfnut101
Well-Known Member
pen/br
pen is min 75%; br is 5000 playing nickels.
pen is min 75%; br is 5000 playing nickels.
For sure. Adjust your wong-in and out points based on the # of decks played, per the chart.
But isn't there a tradeoff here?
Half-ranked counts have a pivot at TC +2, which provides a better correlation between the key count and TC +1 throughout the shoe, as compared to a count like KO.
However, KO has the benefit of accurately identifying TC +4. This is important because
A) It's typically where you have a max bet out
B) There are many key index plays at TC +4 (15vT, 10vT, 10vA, TTv6)
Just as KO has you underbetting early shoe and overbetting late shoe around the key count, don't half-ranked counts have you overbetting early and misapplying index plays at the estimated TC +4 point, and conversely underbetting at that same point late in the shoe?
The amount half-ranked counts are off when they're off is less than the amount KO is off when it's off. I believe making extreme index plays a little too early or a little too late is less costly than ramping up the bets too early or too late.
