Get a Mathematical Advantage in Blackjack!
- Thread starter vincebreezy
- Start date
Yes, but we are not talking about flipping coins here.
zengrifter said:
It depends on # hands played. If you play enough hands there will be no edge even with a 90% loss rebate, I promise.
The best thing to do would be to find out what the maximum loss rebate is and bet that amount on one hand. If there is no limit on the rebate you might be able to play more than one hand, and sort of play it like a sticky bonus. Each extra hand played would decrease your EV, but it would also decrease your variance. I don't know how to find the proper balance of risk vs reward, it would have to be simmed.
So basically, for a loss rebate to be plus EV, you need to have variance. If there was no variance, you are only decreasing the house edge since you would always be losing. Or another way to have no variance (or very little) is to play several million hands. You will be down, and you'll just get 10% back. That's what I'm trying to get across to zg...
zengrifter
Banned
So you're saying that if we flip coins and at the end of every 1000 flips, if you are down and I rebate you 10% of what you are down, it won't create a +EV overall? zg
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Are you being a neophyte again?
Let's flip it around, look at a game like baccarat (banker bet) or Pai Gow, where the casino charges a vigorish on winnings of about 5%, but it's only applied on wins, not ties or losses. When evaluated on a per-hand basis, this is how the house gets their edge.
The key with any kind of loss rebate is to try to make the total amount of gambling as close to one single hand as possible. Although really, with a low edge game like blackjack, playing even, oh, 10 hands or so isn't usually a big deal.
I understand that loss rebates are a common feature of deals for whales. However, the scale and duration of their action pretty much ensures that the loss rebate won't be a money-loser for the casino.
NDN21
Well-Known Member
Get a math advantage....
That is the way I understood it.
If you bet $5000 and lost $400 but were rebated 10% or $40 that would still leave you with a $360 loss.
They could give you back 90% of your losses but you would still be behind by 10%.
If the casino doesn't give you back 100% of your losses then you are still losing, you still have SOME loss?
Yes that seems to be the case as far as I understand it.
1000 hands at $1 a hand to the winner. You win 520 hands, I win 480 hands for a net loss for me of $40. You give me a rebate of 10% ON MY LOSSES ONLY which is $4. So now I only have a $36 loss. It's still a loss and that is still a -EV isn't it?
That is the way I understood it.
If you bet $5000 and lost $400 but were rebated 10% or $40 that would still leave you with a $360 loss.
They could give you back 90% of your losses but you would still be behind by 10%.
If the casino doesn't give you back 100% of your losses then you are still losing, you still have SOME loss?
Yes that seems to be the case as far as I understand it.
1000 hands at $1 a hand to the winner. You win 520 hands, I win 480 hands for a net loss for me of $40. You give me a rebate of 10% ON MY LOSSES ONLY which is $4. So now I only have a $36 loss. It's still a loss and that is still a -EV isn't it?
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Thanks Ken!
It would be a +EV situation, but that's only because this game has no house edge. And again, the only way for this to be +EV is to have variance. If there was no variance we would always be tied and the loss rebate would never come into effect.
However, blackjack has a house edge, so after 10M hands you are almost certain to be losing. So therefore you will get your loss rebate, but you wont make any money.
I'm not saying this can't be +EV, it just doesn't make the game itself plus EV, it depends on how you play it. There are 2 extremes. A) play one hand and you are essentially betting .9 units to win 1 unit. Nice little deal there, that's +EV. The opposite end of the spectrum you could play an infinite number of hands. There is no variance there, so you WILL be down money. Then you get your 10% refund, but you're still down, that's not +EV. Get it?
So whether or not this promo is +EV, depends on how many hands you play. If you play too many you won't have an advantage anymore. I just don't know how many hands you should ideally play.
The only way for this to work if you play several million hands, is if they rebate the loss after every hand. But... they don't. So if they rebate the loss every single hand, then the game itself becomes +EV and you would play it to your hearts content.
zengrifter
Banned
While you're at it, answer our question, please. Would a 10% rebate on losses, at a std-rules BJ, skew the edge in favor of the player? zg
A 10% rebate on losses, cuts your losses to 90%. Say you lost $100. With the rebate, you've lost $90. You're still in the negative column. Am I missing something?
I'm quite confident I have this nailed. It starts out +EV, but the more hands you play the more the EV goes down, and eventually it goes negative. As your hands played increases, the edge goes from positive, and approaches 90% of the actual HA in the normal game.
Cardcounter
Well-Known Member
How the 10% loss rebate works.
You play a for the whole month and you win $5,000 playing blackjack and lose $5,100 for a net lose of a $100 you get $10 back. If you got the 10% back after every losing hand you would get $510 back and I gurantee you they are not doing that.
You play a for the whole month and you win $5,000 playing blackjack and lose $5,100 for a net lose of a $100 you get $10 back. If you got the 10% back after every losing hand you would get $510 back and I gurantee you they are not doing that.
Oh I just mean, as others have alluded to, set a high winning goal and a relatively low losing goal. In other words play it like a sticky bonus. Basically you'd have to play willing to lose entire bankroll.
Not sure what the spread would have to be in an 8% HA game. Who ever heard of that anyway?
Certainly it would work in a coin-toss game.
But, just because it may be +EV, doesn't mean I'd play it.
Because I probably wouldn't.
zengrifter
Banned
OK, IF a rebate on longterm losses for BS player was afforded, how big would the rebate need to be to equal a card-counter's +EV? zg