Risk of ruin for a ploppie?

A

AnIrishmannot2brite

Well-Known Member
Wanted to get some feedback on this subject.

Question:

Is the risk of ruin for a ploppie about the same or within a mild variance regardless of the game rule variations? Even if he plays B/S?

Like the best game might perhaps be a single deck with double any card, natural pays 3:2.

Worst? CSM, natural pays even money and double only ten or eleven with no double after split.

Reason i ask is that if the risk of ruin for the non advantage player is nearly equal across the board then there would be no particular advantage for the casino to change rules. All they would do is back off overly successful players.
 
If you just say "risk of ruin", that means rick of ruin over an infinite amount of time.

So, the risk of ruin playing a losing game is 100%.

You can compute risks of ruins over shorter periods of time. That's sometimes useful in online bonus-hustling situations where you need to complete a wagering requirement playing a fair blackjack game. both wizardofodds and qfit's site have some info on this.

And over a short period of time, risk of ruin is going to be pretty similar for a civilian and an AP. It depends way more on bet size and bankroll rather than advantage.
 
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
Reason i ask is that if the risk of ruin for the non advantage player is nearly equal across the board then there would be no particular advantage for the casino to change rules.
Click to expand...

The casinos aren’t thinking about risk of ruin, they’re thinking about profit. The ploppies are going to lose their money either way, but the bad games make them lose it faster. That way the house gets their money sooner. In some cases it can cause an out of control player to lose much more money than he was planning. With bad games the casino will get more money and they will get it sooner.

-Sonny-
 
I'm just trying to figure the reasoning behind the greed heads running casinos. The question is: If they're still going to profit from CSM's and lousy rules then why have any hand shuffled decks at all?

The answer has to be twofold:

1. Competition from other casinos that offer shuffled game. My guess is that even ploppies prefer to see the traditional hand shuffle.

2. That they're just making so much money they don't care.

The answer will provide a glimpse into the future of blackjack. If the game has bottomed out and may improve, stay the same or get worse.
 
The greedy want it all

AnIrishmannot2brite said:
I'm just trying to figure the reasoning behind the greed heads running casinos. The question is: If they're still going to profit from CSM's and lousy rules then why have any hand shuffled decks at all?

The answer has to be twofold:

1. Competition from other casinos that offer shuffled game. My guess is that even ploppies prefer to see the traditional hand shuffle.

2. That they're just making so much money they don't care.

The answer will provide a glimpse into the future of blackjack. If the game has bottomed out and may improve, stay the same or get worse.
Click to expand...

Competition is a real key here. In Vegas, where if you do not like the game in one casino all you must do is go next door and get a slightly different game and most, not all casinos work this by offering some good games mixed in with bad games. The better games are also generally on higher limit tables.

A great lesson for casinos is the world class blunder by the Vegas Hilton. Once the home of some of the best blackjack in the town, loaded with pretty high rolling players who were not advantage players, they got too greedy. They did not think about their competition, they did not think about the superstitions of their players and they did not think about the fact that their own property really offered their customers nothing special if they did not offer good games.
They went and purchased Mindplay 21 systems and in a short period of time nearly all of those losing big players were customers of other casinos. These people did not know anything about Mindplay but they knew that an all knowing machine built into their table made them uncomfortable and that they could get a game at another casino without this device.
The same goes for CSM's, bad rules, etc. There are people, non AP's, who will not play these games and a big percentage of them are people who bet $25 or higher.
So the casinos in Vegas still have games with CSM's and poor games but those games dominate the lower limit tables where the casinos have also learned that these players tend to not care what kind of game they throw their money away on.
It also makes financial sense. At lower limits the house wants a higher edge to try to make similar money to what they will make at higher limits with a lower edge.
It is like a plan to get it all. Fleece the low roller as quickly as possible (cuts overhead) and still have games that appeal to the bigger player and compare to your competition.

ihate17
 
ihate17 said:
Competition is a real key here. In Vegas, where if you do not like the game in one casino all you must do is go next door and get a slightly different game and most, not all casinos work this by offering some good games mixed in with bad games. The better games are also generally on higher limit tables.

A great lesson for casinos is the world class blunder by the Vegas Hilton. Once the home of some of the best blackjack in the town, loaded with pretty high rolling players who were not advantage players, they got too greedy. They did not think about their competition, they did not think about the superstitions of their players and they did not think about the fact that their own property really offered their customers nothing special if they did not offer good games.
They went and purchased Mindplay 21 systems and in a short period of time nearly all of those losing big players were customers of other casinos. These people did not know anything about Mindplay but they knew that an all knowing machine built into their table made them uncomfortable and that they could get a game at another casino without this device.
The same goes for CSM's, bad rules, etc. There are people, non AP's, who will not play these games and a big percentage of them are people who bet $25 or higher.
So the casinos in Vegas still have games with CSM's and poor games but those games dominate the lower limit tables where the casinos have also learned that these players tend to not care what kind of game they throw their money away on.
It also makes financial sense. At lower limits the house wants a higher edge to try to make similar money to what they will make at higher limits with a lower edge.
It is like a plan to get it all. Fleece the low roller as quickly as possible (cuts overhead) and still have games that appeal to the bigger player and compare to your competition.

ihate17
Click to expand...

That brings up another question. A little background first;

I just came back from the local Indian joint. A twenty five mile ride from here. I have avoided this place even though i kinda soaked 'em good in months past. Reason? High min bet and only 50% penetration.

However that was on the weekend. I got a very high TC that Saturday night after the second deck and made out like a bandit. So i declared my success partially due to an unusually good set of cards left in the shoe. An incidence not likely to happen very often. That and to just plain luck. Until today I avoided the joint.

Well I was in the area today on business and decided to test my skills again. Guess what? During M thru F they have $10 min tables and 65% penetration... Better odds than weekends.

My luck wasn't great today and nearly lost my last chip but came back up to five hundred, cashed out. Upon walking across the room to enter a sweepstakes prize award I noticed a mere $10.00 min table. Almost soaked them good on a plus 5 TC count. Dealer kept matching my 21's. Even on the doubles. Five in a row in fact.

But I learned a good lesson: Take nothing for granted and always scope a place out well first.

Weekdays may be the best time to play.
 
Weekday and early AM

AnIrishmannot2brite said:
That brings up another question. A little background first;

I just came back from the local Indian joint. A twenty five mile ride from here. I have avoided this place even though i kinda soaked 'em good in months past. Reason? High min bet and only 50% penetration.

However that was on the weekend. I got a very high TC that Saturday night after the second deck and made out like a bandit. So i declared my success partially due to an unusually good set of cards left in the shoe. An incidence not likely to happen very often. That and to just plain luck. Until today I avoided the joint.

Well I was in the area today on business and decided to test my skills again. Guess what? During M thru F they have $10 min tables and 65% penetration... Better odds than weekends.

My luck wasn't great today and nearly lost my last chip but came back up to five hundred, cashed out. Upon walking across the room to enter a sweepstakes prize award I noticed a mere $10.00 min table. Almost soaked them good on a plus 5 TC count. Dealer kept matching my 21's. Even on the doubles. Five in a row in fact.

But I learned a good lesson: Take nothing for granted and always scope a place out well first.

Weekdays may be the best time to play.
Click to expand...

In the best of worlds, I would only play weekdays between 2AM-10AM or so.
You may or may not find better pen. That depends on the dealers and their supervisors, but you find empty tables and both easy opportunities to search tables for better pen and wonging opportunities.
The down side is that in an empty casino it can be very hard to get lost in the crowd and easy to be one of the biggest players in the place.

For instance, I know an Indian place with a certain dealer, if he is on double deck, that only cuts about 20 cards, giving you about 80% pen, and you find him there early AM. When playing a game like this, cover plays become much more important to me than when playing a game with several other players, some of which might be playing larger than I. Right now, I will not go back to that place at those hours for fear that I will get backed off upon sitting down (played unrated) because after having a great 40 minutes with 80% pen, his relief dealer came in and I could read her hole card about 75% of the time. Played both of them for about 2 hours, had a win that required a CTR, and hope they forget my name and face before I come back. I know I more than stood out at 4AM.

ihate17
 
AnIrishmannot2brite said:
Like the best game might perhaps be a single deck with double any card, natural pays 3:2.

Worst? CSM, natural pays even money and double only ten or eleven with no double after split.
Click to expand...
I believe an 8 deck game is slightly worse then a CSM to a BS player. Provided the CSM uses fewer then 8 decks. I'm not sure about hands per hour, I think the CSM would be faster. The only way to stop casinos from making games continually worse is pure competition. The mega-corporations controlling more and more casinos is not a healthy trend for AP's.
BW
 
ihate17 said:
Competition is a real key here. In Vegas, where if you do not like the game in one casino all you must do is go next door and get a slightly different game and most, not all casinos work this by offering some good games mixed in with bad games. The better games are also generally on higher limit tables.

A great lesson for casinos is the world class blunder by the Vegas Hilton. Once the home of some of the best blackjack in the town, loaded with pretty high rolling players who were not advantage players, they got too greedy. They did not think about their competition, they did not think about the superstitions of their players and they did not think about the fact that their own property really offered their customers nothing special if they did not offer good games.
They went and purchased Mindplay 21 systems and in a short period of time nearly all of those losing big players were customers of other casinos. These people did not know anything about Mindplay but they knew that an all knowing machine built into their table made them uncomfortable and that they could get a game at another casino without this device.
The same goes for CSM's, bad rules, etc. There are people, non AP's, who will not play these games and a big percentage of them are people who bet $25 or higher.
So the casinos in Vegas still have games with CSM's and poor games but those games dominate the lower limit tables where the casinos have also learned that these players tend to not care what kind of game they throw their money away on.
It also makes financial sense. At lower limits the house wants a higher edge to try to make similar money to what they will make at higher limits with a lower edge.
It is like a plan to get it all. Fleece the low roller as quickly as possible (cuts overhead) and still have games that appeal to the bigger player and compare to your competition.

ihate17
Click to expand...

Yes. You said a mouthful when you said their own property offered nothing special if they didn't offer good games. That is why clubs like Hard Rock can get away with all CSMs, because their clientele come for other reasons and would likely play anything you set in front of them absent a sign stating, "These games have been scientifically tested and can not be beat."
 
Risk of Ruin for a ploppy

Since the risk of ruin is over an infinite number of hands lets look at really large number that is a lot less than infinite. Lets look at the play of 1 trillion hands, I know you will not live long enough to play 1 trillion hands.

Lets analaze a couple of players one is lucky bill who has $100 billion dollar bank roll and is lucky enough to finish more than 9 standard deviations ahead he still $169 billion behind betting $100 a hand for a trillion hands. Bill plays perfect basic stragedy and picks an excellent game with rules that gives the house a .17% advantage.

# hands played Expected Value Amount wagered SD
1 trillion -170 billion $100 trillion $110 million

In this analsis lucky bill who was 9 standard deviations still lost $169 billion after playing 1 trillion hands at a $100 a hand. So even with a $100 billion bank roll he was not able to cover his loses and went broke after his marathon.

No lets analaze Unlucky Daves results who can get a small edge playing blackjack. He plays the same game that bill plays that is supposed to give the house a .17% advantage but Dave has figured out a way to get a .01% advantage over the house after tipping and other leakage! He finishes 9 standard deviations lower than expected.

# hands played Expected Value Amount wagered SD
1 trillion $10 billion $100 trillion $110 million

Amount Made $10,000,000,000-990,000,000= $9,010,000,000
This goes to show you the huge difference between playing with a small disadvantage to just a tiny advantage when you play a huge number of hands.
 
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