Recent content by godeem23

How did the girl and the dealer react?

Anyone who's done any research into this game has been repeatedly warned of the vicious standard deviation you will experience as a player. We know the rule of thumb that your max bet should be no more than 1% of your BR, in order to survive extreme variance. The topic of RoR is always on our...

In the example you mentioned, your EV ranges from .174 to .178 depending on what your 11 is composed of, assuming 6 decks, H17, and no DAS. This infomation and much more can be found in appendix E of Wong's Professional Blackjack.

Which count?

I think this needs to be reworded. The question can be interpreted in the following ways: 1. A person was chosen randomly and identified as a counter. What is the probability that they are actually a counter? 2. A person was random chosen and tested by the software package. What is the...

Actually, that's the precise reason why it's NOT 50/50. If the host were to open a RANDOM door, which happened to contain a goat, then out of the remaining two it would be 50/50. To better understand this, consider a more extreme example. I tell you I'm thinking of a number between 1 and...

You don't need to win more hands than you lose, and you're not going to. Your advantage comes from winning the bigger bets, and taking advantage of profitable double downs, etc.

Nope. When the host opens a goat-door, it's the same as the host saying "hey, if the car isn't behind YOUR door, it's behind this door." Since there's a 2/3 probability of the car not being behing your door, there's a 2/3 probability of the car being behind THE ONLY REMAIN DOOR. Really, just...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

Since you're not using indices, you're only using your count to vary bet size. If that's the case, you'll be following exact BS and therefore win/lose/push the exact same percentage of hands as you would have if you weren't counting. The only difference will be the size of your bets. Since...

Practice, practice, practice!! Anyway, it's difficult to determine your advantage (or disadvantage) unless your using an exact system. We can't tell a computer "raise the bet if you see some small cards." It needs to be more accurate. I guess I'll let one of the pros like Sonny or Rhino decide...

Are you opposed to actually counting?

Yes.

Are you sure? What if it's an "honest mistake"?

Yeah! I noticed that too. Every single table was "hot." And just like you said, they won every hand except when Ben stopped following the system. Totally unrealistic; but remember, it's only a movie.