Recent content by Nynefingers

If you think there will be a difference in casino response, that would sway the decision on how to play it. Some people may stick to one spot for that reason. If spreading to 2 spots gets you heat, though, your time is probably limited anyway. In some cases, spreading to 2 spots will get you...

KJ, you are, of course, correct that betting mathematically optimally is not always the only consideration. For someone in your circumstances in particular, your betting is not primarily constrained by your bankroll. In that situation, of course you will do things a bit differently, and rightly...

Without CVCX, you’re unlikely to end up with an optimum bet spread. One of two things is likely to happen. Either you overbet and risk losing your bankroll, or you underbet and leave money on the table. Let’s assume the best and say you underbet slightly. Let’s assume that by underbetting, you...

The idea behind not spreading to 2 hands heads up is that, while you get 1.5x the money out (betting 2 hands of .75x your single hand max), you also use up 1.5x the cards, netting you about the same money out of that shoe. Therefore, the story goes, why bother? Personally, I’m perfectly happy to...

I’m not at my computer, but if you initially size your bets to 2/3 Kelly, then don’t resize with wins and losses, your risk or ruin is roughly 5%. It’s been a while since I’ve looked at the math, but that’s the number that sticks in my head. Any serious player should absolutely, without doubt...

$10/hr? How bad is the game you are playing? If you can find a game with a SCORE of 50, you’d earn $25/hr even playing at half Kelly. If your bankroll is replenishable at all, even 2/3 Kelly is not unreasonable, which would be $33/hr. I would suggest just playing to your current bankroll (no...

If you arbitrarily raise your bets towards the lower end of your betting ramp and not at the higher end, you aren’t betting proportional to your advantage. If you aren’t betting proportional to your advantage, you aren’t betting as efficiently as you could be. You might still have an advantage...

So...40:1 and 100:1 spreads? :confused: I guess what I'm getting at is the implication is you were using a $25 unit...Was that really your min bet for these sessions?

I played a game recently where I knew I was leaving town the next day and wouldn't be back for some time, so I was willing to play more aggressively than I otherwise would. In particular, I knew I had stayed longer than I should. But, I wasn't getting any noticeable heat either. I split tens...

Related question that I faced recently... I'm playing heads up in a DD game, on a players card, when all other DD games have about 3 players per table. A regular (or at least a known player) comes in and starts betting at or near the table limit, which is several times more than my max bet...

For a large, but not infinite bankroll, I still think we maximize CE. By its definition, CE is the amount you would accept with no variance in exchange for not taking the risky bet. If someone with an infinite bank were around and willing to buy out all of our bets at exactly our CE and take...

You win, thankfully*...my record is -$12k in one shoe, which was somewhere around -2.5 to -3SD. *Of course, truthfully, I wish my biggest loss was that big, as it would imply that my BR was bigger and I was playing stronger games. But you know what I meant...

I would think we'd just want to maximize CE. For an bankroll approaching infinity, CE approaches EV, so we'd just maximize EV. N0 may be huge, but since our bets are insignificant relative to the bankroll, we can handle that large N0 and it won't be that big of a deal.

We're still talking about this?? :laugh: You're overthinking this...the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the...

That was as we were headed towards our most recent potential government shutdown (debt ceiling stuff). And it wasn't total assets, it was more cash on hand. I saw that story too, but I never tried to fact-check it. If we were that close to shutting down, it was probably accurate, moreso...