Recent content by sagefr0g

  1. sagefr0g

    SplitFaceDisaster question answered

    @ Dummy, since you seem to be the only one having an interest dealing with variance and goals (with respect to expenses of life other than AP costs. did you not see this post? https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/the-straw-that-broke-the-camels-back.56070/post-498379 just curious, as...
  2. sagefr0g

    The Straw That Broke the Camels Back

    if i may digress a bit regarding some games other than blackjack. no argument sir. but asking for your opinion far as the scenario below: the other night, i was about spot on far as EV for my typical daily session. i was happy with that. i’m about to leave for the day, when a play presented on a...
  3. sagefr0g

    Speaking at the Museum of Mathematics

    curious as to how the event went.
  4. sagefr0g

    Certainty equivilance

    my take on CE . Certainty Equivalent: the decision point at which someone might take a gamble with a given expectation over a certain guaranteed payoff. example: slickster offers you two choices, you pay some amount Z to partake in either choice 1 or choice 2, choice 1 you take a guaranteed...
  5. sagefr0g

    Record keeping

    probably the issues you addressed in your original post, rather than address them, he just suggested using excel. with respect to an issue in your original post, "...,Keeping a side tally of money spent on expenditures, like the 10 dollars for the bus ride, $X dollars for the flat tire, I went...
  6. sagefr0g

    Testing and Protection of New Card Counting Strategy

    in this link: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/frequency-distribution-of-number-of-cards-dealt-heads-up.55891/#post-496328 Peter writes as if the speed count is proprietary. anyway, after Gronbog simulates it, I hope Peter lets us know some of the results, sorta thing.
  7. sagefr0g

    Testing and Protection of New Card Counting Strategy

    just curious, have you read Taleb's books? if so, what were your greatest take away s? I've read three of them. greatest take away s for me, was the general of idea of the existence of 'black swans' (good & bad), the general idea of antifragility (especially how the concept relates to ev...
  8. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    just want to say, that I believe I have indeed solved the real problem of which was the motive behind all of my convoluted questions and misdirected (because of my own misunderstanding) attempts to use factors such as f*, CE and the like. I didn't even divulge the real problem that I was trying...
  9. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    I added an edit to the text in which I posited the erroneous belief that f* could be negative even when ev is positive in order to warn readers in the future. https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/ce-certainty-equivalent-what-exactly-is-its-use.16357/page-2#post-496380 as a further...
  10. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    as simply as I can put it. you've wised me up. back to the drawing board. thank you London
  11. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    shall reply to these matters, I believe you have awakened me to some aspects of the assumption far as ignoring the other payoffs that I didn't take into consideration. working on it as and when I can. unfortunately, dealing with a few other issues currently. but i'll reply again, good, bad or...
  12. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    shall reply to the ........ out portion after some study. thank you for being frank, sir, that's the ticket, far as i'm concerned. and worrying, nothing wrong with that (up to a point) since it denotes concern and genuine caring (similar to how Gronbog expressed that he wouldn't jokingly advise...
  13. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    with all due respect sir (and truly there is a hell of a lot of respect due! imho), i'd prefer not to describe the payoffs on an open forum. that said, I pretty much understand your reticence with respect to my judgment to eliminate the others (payoffs) and the possible ramifications as you have...
  14. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    edit: the hypothesis below is erroneous, negative f* doesn't happen when ev is positive. so don't bother reading further if you like end edit maybe, the final question, maybe, lol: your statements (Don & London) further de-foggify my mind, with respect to f*, lol. permit me to digress a bit...
  15. sagefr0g

    CE - Certainty Equivalent, what exactly is it's use?

    bare with me please, lol. when you say, "....or win b units". uhmm, b units could be a fraction, correct?
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