£5000 Bankroll, 1/4 kelly betting

B

BJLover

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
hi there,

I only have a handfull of games available in the uk, the rules are basically the same in most of them(6 deck shoes), S17, DAS, DD 9,10,11, no hole card, 80% penetration.

I worked out my starting advantage is -0.70%

I am using the advanced red7 count with the true edge conversion.

I have based my total/fixed bankroll at £5000, but am only planning to take £400 each month for a year to the casino(12 trips).(playing 30hours each mth,60 hands an hour,=1800) Per annum = (21600 hands)

I have made up a betting strategy using 1/4 kelly betting, here goes;
Minimum bet a tables are £3

min flat bet @ R/C <0; 1 unit (£3)

@ pivot 1/2% adv 2 units (£6)

@ 1% adv 4 units (£12)

@1 1/2% adv 6 units (£18)

@ 2% adv 8 units (£24) round to £25

@ 2 1/2% adv 10 units (£30)

@ 3% adv 12 units(£35)

@ 3 1/2% adv 14 units (£40)

@ 4% adv 16 units (£48) round to £50


I know the bet spread seems excessive but i am pretty sure i can get away with it, already done a few practice runs(not counting,never had it nailed down) and no one batted an eye lid, saying that i was spreading from 1-3 hands to get the money out there.

I was going to re-adjust my total bankroll after every trip i made according to my win/loss for each month.

Also with only taking £400 each mth (130 units,approx), if i so happen,which i fully expect, to be wiped out and lose my monthly bankroll i would simply just wait till next month and go again,


IS this a valid and worthwhile system????

would like your views on this please,

any other advice about systems and other betting stratigies plus Team play, would all help, i am toying with the idea of training a couple friends to try and increase profits also,

Thank you.
BJLover
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
That plan sounds pretty solid to me! :D My only advice is to not think about team play yet. It will be quite a while until you are ready to play on a team and much longer before you're ready to manage one. Good players might take 6 months or more to train from scratch. Some teams require a minimum of two years casino experience, and it's for a good reason. For the time being just focus on getting as much practice and experience as you can. The teams will be waiting for you when you are ready. :)

-Sonny-
 
B

BJLover

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Sonny said:
That plan sounds pretty solid to me! :D My only advice is to not think about team play yet. It will be quite a while until you are ready to play on a team and much longer before you're ready to manage one. Good players might take 6 months or more to train from scratch. Some teams require a minimum of two years casino experience, and it's for a good reason. For the time being just focus on getting as much practice and experience as you can. The teams will be waiting for you when you are ready. :)

-Sonny-
Click to expand...
Thank you, much apprieciated advice and views.
 
C

Cass

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
BJLover said:
hi there,

I only have a handfull of games available in the uk, the rules are basically the same in most of them(6 deck shoes), S17, DAS, DD 9,10,11, no hole card, 80% penetration.

I worked out my starting advantage is -0.70%

I am using the advanced red7 count with the true edge conversion.

I have based my total/fixed bankroll at £5000, but am only planning to take £400 each month for a year to the casino(12 trips).(playing 30hours each mth,60 hands an hour,=1800) Per annum = (21600 hands)

I have made up a betting strategy using 1/4 kelly betting, here goes;
Minimum bet a tables are £3

min flat bet @ R/C <0; 1 unit (£3)

@ pivot 1/2% adv 2 units (£6)

@ 1% adv 4 units (£12)

@1 1/2% adv 6 units (£18)

@ 2% adv 8 units (£24) round to £25

@ 2 1/2% adv 10 units (£30)

@ 3% adv 12 units(£35)

@ 3 1/2% adv 14 units (£40)

@ 4% adv 16 units (£48) round to £50


I know the bet spread seems excessive but i am pretty sure i can get away with it, already done a few practice runs(not counting,never had it nailed down) and no one batted an eye lid, saying that i was spreading from 1-3 hands to get the money out there.

I was going to re-adjust my total bankroll after every trip i made according to my win/loss for each month.

Also with only taking £400 each mth (130 units,approx), if i so happen,which i fully expect, to be wiped out and lose my monthly bankroll i would simply just wait till next month and go again,


IS this a valid and worthwhile system????

would like your views on this please,

any other advice about systems and other betting stratigies plus Team play, would all help, i am toying with the idea of training a couple friends to try and increase profits also,

Thank you.
BJLover
Click to expand...
You need to bring more than 130 units for 30 hrs of play. you don't even have enough to cover 10 max bets. I would suggest bringing at least 200 units per playing session. It is my opinion that the player who goes bust every so often makes no money over the long run. I wont step foot in the casino unless I have at least enough money to cover 20 max bets.
 
B

BJLover

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Cass said:
You need to bring more than 130 units for 30 hrs of play. you don't even have enough to cover 10 max bets. I would suggest bringing at least 200 units per playing session. It is my opinion that the player who goes bust every so often makes no money over the long run. I wont step foot in the casino unless I have at least enough money to cover 20 max bets.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the reply, would i be better off just having 6 trips over the 12 months and taking £600 each time???
the reason i was only taking £300 was bacause playing in a 6 deck game, not being able to wong in and out much, only 3 tables in casino i was thinking i would hardly be laying down many big bets???

it does make more sense just half the trips with double bankroll for weekend,what do you think???
 
C

Cass

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
BJLover said:
Thanks for the reply, would i be better off just having 6 trips over the 12 months and taking £600 each time???
the reason i was only taking £300 was bacause playing in a 6 deck game, not being able to wong in and out much, only 3 tables in casino i was thinking i would hardly be laying down many big bets???

it does make more sense just half the trips with double bankroll for weekend,what do you think???
Click to expand...

I wouldnt suggest playing half as much. Wait until you at least have 20 top bets before stepping foot into the casino. if you need to wait a month or so before you can play, so be it. You might be suprised about not laying down many big bets. In a shoe game I have had the count stay very positive for 10+ hands in a row.

-Cass
 
B

BJLover

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Cass said:
I wouldnt suggest playing half as much. Wait until you at least have 20 top bets before stepping foot into the casino. if you need to wait a month or so before you can play, so be it. You might be suprised about not laying down many big bets. In a shoe game I have had the count stay very positive for 10+ hands in a row.

-Cass
Click to expand...
cheers for the advice, sounds good.would be very annoying tappping out with a high count, wouldnt be able to sleep that night.
 
C

Cass

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
BJLover said:
cheers for the advice, sounds good.would be very annoying tappping out with a high count, wouldnt be able to sleep that night.
Click to expand...
I have a theory that the player that goes bust once in awhile is a break even player over the long run even if he has an advantage.
 
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