“Linear” Progessions?

Dummy

Well-Known Member
#21
Stephen said:
After years of play and study, one thing that I continue to struggle with how to capitalize on the TONS of hand that are won during less than favorable TCs.
There are ways. A counter bets based on the composition of the unseen cards. But you get advantage on rounds by whether the count goes up or down on that given round. You can't predict this in advance so capitalizing on it is not obvious. I won't spell it out but think about a few things. Moving your bet around a lot is a dead giveaway that you are a counter. Winning streaks are most likely when the count is dropping regardless of the count when you you place your bets. If you raise your bets too frequently on a rising count that can be a red flag. Often, especially with a level 1 count, the difference between your waiting bet and your first advantage bet is a big jump or at least should be. That makes a possible need for an over bet when an advantage bet is likely to be made on the next round. So you make that over bet and there things can happen. The count falls and you made a more appropriate bet for the advantage round you played. The count rises and you need to make an advantage bet but don't have to more than double your bet to make it. Or the count goes unchanged and you played a neutral round. You can have some big winning runs as the count continues to fall. If you lose you leave. Sometimes the count recovers before you lose a hand.

By thinking about how to use this knowledge to find solutions to multiple problems you face in a casino you can increase longevity while making more money even though you are giving up EV. Thinking about how your bet moves look to the casino can produce opportunities to make more money while looking stupid. I have played 5 decks into a shoe without losing a bet pair. When I finally lost, the count was massively negative after playing such a high percentage of advantage rounds and I took my $1K profit and left. I have also had the count drop way below my wong out point when playing lots of advantage rounds where I expected big disadvantage rounds based on the count only to have the count recover without losing a round and make a lot of money while expecting disadvantage rounds but playing advantage rounds while waiting for the opportunity that materialized and a lot when I expected advantage rounds. If I am losing my disadvantage bets I am gone at the wong out point. Hopefully some of the more imaginative can figure out how to win more while creating great cover. two things happen at the table for the counter. There is the count expected before the hand is bet, and the count played determined by the cards that are played that round. Your expected win is based on the former, but your actual win tends to follow the latter. Try to make your cover use the actual, to win money while giving up EV.
 
#22
Stevel96a1 said:
if your like me and work for everything you have and have bills you may want to consider Stephen,
Really? Listen to Stephen and play with a negative expectation?? Is that what people with bills and limited resources should do? Really?
 
#23
xengrifter said:
Really? Listen to Stephen and play with a negative expectation?? Is that what people with bills and limited resources should do? Really?
consider Stephen, if you live in las vegas you win 10$ an hour playing video poker atleast you won't lose 3 grand on 30min there

i implied he should try positive video poker games thats what he should RECONSIDER his gambling path...

why did you cherry pick what you wanted to read or not tell the whole thing? is that what modern apes do these days?
 
#24
Stevel96a1 said:
why did you cherry pick what you wanted to read or not tell the whole thing? is that what modern apes do these days?
Not intentionally...
...your message was not clear to me; I thought you were stumping for his method.
I apologize.
 
Last edited:

Talmadge

Well-Known Member
#25
Dummy said:
There are ways. A counter bets based on the composition of the unseen cards. But you get advantage on rounds by whether the count goes up or down on that given round. You can't predict this in advance so capitalizing on it is not obvious. I won't spell it out but think about a few things. Moving your bet around a lot is a dead giveaway that you are a counter. Winning streaks are most likely when the count is dropping regardless of the count when you you place your bets. If you raise your bets too frequently on a rising count that can be a red flag. Often, especially with a level 1 count, the difference between your waiting bet and your first advantage bet is a big jump or at least should be. That makes a possible need for an over bet when an advantage bet is likely to be made on the next round. So you make that over bet and there things can happen. The count falls and you made a more appropriate bet for the advantage round you played. The count rises and you need to make an advantage bet but don't have to more than double your bet to make it. Or the count goes unchanged and you played a neutral round. You can have some big winning runs as the count continues to fall. If you lose you leave. Sometimes the count recovers before you lose a hand.

By thinking about how to use this knowledge to find solutions to multiple problems you face in a casino you can increase longevity while making more money even though you are giving up EV. Thinking about how your bet moves look to the casino can produce opportunities to make more money while looking stupid. I have played 5 decks into a shoe without losing a bet pair. When I finally lost, the count was massively negative after playing such a high percentage of advantage rounds and I took my $1K profit and left. I have also had the count drop way below my wong out point when playing lots of advantage rounds where I expected big disadvantage rounds based on the count only to have the count recover without losing a round and make a lot of money while expecting disadvantage rounds but playing advantage rounds while waiting for the opportunity that materialized and a lot when I expected advantage rounds. If I am losing my disadvantage bets I am gone at the wong out point. Hopefully some of the more imaginative can figure out how to win more while creating great cover. two things happen at the table for the counter. There is the count expected before the hand is bet, and the count played determined by the cards that are played that round. Your expected win is based on the former, but your actual win tends to follow the latter. Try to make your cover use the actual, to win money while giving up EV.
I think that i can gather what you are talking about.
Say for example that my bankroll can now support $300 max bets and i am playing at a $20 table.
Would i be right in assuming that that scenario doesnt give me enough room to move using what you were talking about?
 

Dummy

Well-Known Member
#26
It all depends on your risk tolerance. You don't give enough info to make the assessment but even if you did it is a matter of personal preference for risk tolerance versus deflecting heat.
 

Dummy

Well-Known Member
#28
Reply sent. PMs are made with confidentiality assumed. What I chose not to post on the open forum should never be posted on the open forum. Sharing privately should be done with great discretion or better yet not at all.
 
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