12 is an automatic winner.

shadroch · Aug 1, 2009

I got a mailing that included this unusual coupon. You can bet up to $100, but I don't think I should jump my bet to that as getting a 12 is not something that happens every couple of hands. To sweeten the deal, it also included 2 buy $40, get $50 and 2 $25 MPs( one per day).
Should I increase my $10-$25 normal bets for this or just play normal?

DownUnderWonder · Aug 1, 2009

shadroch said:

I am not very familiar with coupons like this. How does it work, you play it before the hand, or after you get a 12? The MP coupons sound really great!

Cardcounter · Aug 1, 2009

is this in blackjack 12 is an automatic winner? First of all 12 is usually a losing hand so having it be a winner will give you a nice edge. Second if you don't get 12 you can still get a pat hand and win. You can get a 12 with 10,2
9,3 8,4 7,5 6,6. 4,4,4 8,3,A 5,5,2 and that is just some of the ways you can get 12!

shadroch · Aug 1, 2009

I believe it is only on your first two cards but it would be great if they allowed you to use it when you doubled down on 11 and drew an Ace:cool2:

This coupon, you let the dealer know you have it when you sit down. The PB checks to make sure you have not already used one and then you play normally until you get the 12.

DownUnderWonder · Aug 2, 2009

So you use the coupon and you just keep playing until you get a 12? Interesting coupon. I would probably pull it out in a high count if you can, you are more likely to be facing a high dealer upcard and have a larger bet out. It sounds like when to play the coupon is somewhat out of your control though.

stophon · Aug 2, 2009

Well if your dealt a 12 your at about a -30% percent advantage. Your dealt a twelve 9.47% of the time (assuming pair of aces counts as a 12).

So your advantage when your not dealt a 12 is
.0947*-.3 + (1-.0947)*x = -.005
X = 2.59%

So your adv is
(1-.0947)*.0259 + .0947*1 = 11.8%

With an 11% adv you should prlly be betting as much as they'll let you. I'd probably bet around 5% of my BR if i was able to. The fact that it caries over is awesome too, I would guess its value is pretty high if it carries over.

NDN21 · Aug 3, 2009

I doubt if they let you sit there with the coupon in play on all hands until you get a 12. It's probably play it once and whether you draw 12 or not it's gone.

It would be great if it were a coupon-is-in-play-until-you-get-a-12.

kewljason · Aug 3, 2009

NDN21 said:

He said, you show the coupon when you sit down and then play normally until you get a twelve. I take that to mean the couon is not just for one hand. It's good until your first 12.

shadroch · Aug 3, 2009

NDN21 said:

Nope. It's just like a BJ pays double coupon. It's good until you use it.

Automatic Monkey · Aug 3, 2009

shadroch said:

No, it happens on 8.31% of hands (not counting AA) and I'd flat bet $100. If the count gets really bad, take a leak to maximize you efficiency.

Kasi · Aug 4, 2009

Automatic Monkey said:

Well, Stophon did say he was including A,A. I'm guessing you also may not be including 6,6 but that Stophon also did include that.

No matter, it sounds like a good enough thing to bet the $100 to me as you say.

I have no idea how a 2-card 12 may be effected by TC's. Maybe more likely in -TC's?

Would you say an initial player 2-card 12 is more or less likely in a neg TC? Only asking because I think you can actually figure this silly stuff out lol.

What would you say the value of this coupon is worth, more or less? Is Stophon in the ballpark?

I just get so suspicious of stuff that, when I figure it out, it seemingly gives such a wild advantage to the player, I can only assume I'm doing something wrong lol.

stophon · Aug 4, 2009

Ok, I'll perform some sims.
All sims are done on SD H17 nDAS. The numbers will probably differ slightly for multideck games and rule variations but I assume your betting quite a bit under kelly anyway so it shouldn't matter.

Automatic Monkey I assume your number is for a multideck game. It would also appear you aren't counting AA or 66. I'm going to be leaving out AA for this sim (different from my other calculation) but I will include 66.

All sims done with 10,000,000 hands
Advantage when 12 is automatic winner: 8.92%
Advantage when not dealt a 12: 2.93%
Prob of 12 in SD game: 8.88%

Bet: $100

Do all the math for yourself, I compute the coupon as being worth a little over $130.

Kasi · Aug 5, 2009

stophon said:

Thanks for your effort Stophon.

Obviously AM was not including 6.6 or A,A.

Then there is the wrinkle I came across of like, say, splitting, 9,9 vs, say 3, and getting a 9,3 on one of the split hands and whether that would qualify for the bonus.

Whatever, just having fun, but thanks again for corroborating my sanity lol.

It's really a crazy-good coupon isn't it?

Even a guy like me, scared of his own shadow, might suck it up and dig deep and bet the $100 until it hit.

Maybe even try to buy the same coupon of other's who may have it or back-bet them.

It's so crazy-good, does it make one wonder whether some guy in the promo dept got an approval from some guy in the "common sense" dept?

Can you imagine the effect of mailing out 10,000 or 100,000 of these coupons to people who may realize what it means?

Then again, I never uinderstood how internet casinos gave the bonuses they did, except maybe as a marketing cost, but they did.

This is like internet-bonus stuff except it's "real-life" and yet so much better.

I can't figure out where the "catch" is lol.

Doesn't it seem the casino would be absolutely, inevitably, creamed from here to Honolulu and back?

Whatever lol.

stophon · Aug 5, 2009

Ah, my analysis assumed the 12 was obtained by the first two dealt cards.

Automatic Monkey · Aug 5, 2009

stophon said:

That's a good assumption, most promotions only pay on natural hands.

If it did pay on split hands, always splitting 2's would be a nice move.

suicyco maniac · Aug 5, 2009

If you can pass on your first 12 it may be worth waiting to gain EV. Obviously a coupon that turns a 12 into an auto winner is worth more against a dealers BJ then against a dealers 6, etc. You could look up the EV's and frequencies of the various hands to determine if the benefit of waiting for a higher EV play is overcome by the -EV cost of the waiting bets.

stophon · Aug 6, 2009

The coupon is worth alot because it effectively acts as insurance against getting a bad hand. Even if you don't get the 12 you have an advantage.

Kasi · Aug 6, 2009

suicyco maniac said:

If you can pass on your first 12 it may be worth waiting to gain EV. Obviously a coupon that turns a 12 into an auto winner is worth more against a dealers BJ then against a dealers 6, etc. /QUOTE]

I don't know - I can't see when waiting would be worth more than just collecting the auto-winner.

I think Stophon already took all that freq and EV stuff into account and came up with the avg adv a FB BS would have.

I think some casino somewhere has simply maybe lost its mind lol.

Or, maybe, hasn't, and is happy to entice far-away gamblers for a $100+ incentive gambling they will win that coupon back and those marketing $'s back, and then some.

Hope the OP, if he uses it, let's us know what happened doing whatever he chose to do or whether the understanding we all have of that coupon's use in some way changed.

suicyco maniac · Aug 6, 2009

Kasi said:

Our 12 vs the dealers 6 without any coupons or special rules is a negative EV hand. If we look it up on the WOO's S17 chart it is -.1537

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix5.html

This means everytime we get a 12 vs 6 with a $100 bet we are losing $15. Using a coupon we go from losing 15 to winning 100 (+$115)

Our 12 vs a dealers Ace is -.3505 so we gain about $20 by playing the coupon against an ace instead of the 6 but we continue to lose money at the normal house edge while waiting for this hand to appear (assuming BS play. If we are counting the HE is not really a factor anymore but our wasted time may be). If we are just playing BS against a .5% HE we would have to see the 12 vs ace pop up in the next 40 hands or we were better off using it against the 6.

If we can convince them to let us use the coupon after the dealer has already turned over their blackjack we just turned a -100 hand into a +100 hand for a gain of $200 (best case scenario assuming first two cards only and not after a DD)

If you figure out all the EV's and frequencies you can determine if its worth waiting to play the coupon or if its better to play it at the first opportunity.

Kasi · Aug 6, 2009

suicyco maniac said:

Can we?

Just sounded like to me one must redeem the first 2-card 12 dealt after informing casino that you have the coupon.

I guess it might be a different story if you could use the coupon whenever you chose to after the fact of knowing the dealer's total for his 2 cards.

I don't know the exact rules of the coupon.

12 is an automatic winner.

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