350 hours later

[fwb]

Hi all,
I thought I'd share the results of my first 350 hours as a regular AP. I've kept very detailed logs.

EV represents $/hr as reported by CVData plotted as a function of hours played with the conditions and strategy I was playing with at the time. You can consider $0 as the top of my bankroll - anything above that is profit.

Some thoughts:

-My first ~125 hours I look at as my novice card counter stage. I had only read a book or two and was just using Hi Lo with no indicies except for insurance. My betting ramp was simply just multiplying my base unit by the true count. I was thoroughly over-betting my bankroll at the time and happened to win just about all of my max bets due to sheer luck. At this point I was wondering if my huge success was due to dumb luck or actually good strategy, so I decided to invest in CVData and CVX with the extra cash. CVData confirmed my success was mostly due to positive variance.

-The 125 hour mark is where I consider myself going from the novice level to the expert level. Now that I had CVData and CVX, I started to really get in depth with the statistics, and maximizing profitability became almost an obsession to me. I have hundreds of simulations archived exploring literally every little aspect of the game. The jump in EV slope represents me changing strategies to Hi Opt II, ace side count, 25 indicies (and growing), with a c-SCORE optimized betting ramp. I also made the switch from shoe games to double deck.

-I think these results are a great illustration of the concept that no matter how good or bad your strategy is, and no matter how good the playing conditions are, standard deviation will always dominate the short term. I happened to have much better results during my first 125 hours, but as you know that doesn't necessarily mean my strategy or conditions were any good, in fact they were mediocre at best.

-If the beginning of my venture happened to represent the 250 hour mark and beyond, I would have probably given up card counting long ago. I imagine about half of new card counters start on that negative trend and don't have the bankroll to support it, so they give it up forever. The initial positive variance is what got me hooked. I'm willing to bet all of the now seasoned APs here had a similar start to mine (correct me if I'm wrong). I just don't see a player trying to count for the first time sticking out a negative run like that and continuing on...it's not how the human brain works. I've witnessed this with a bunch of my friends who have tried to join me.

-I won't bother griping about how harsh my last 100 hours were because I know a lot of you have been there, and I'd just be preaching to the choir with my sob stories, but I can say that my tolerance to bankroll pain has increased substantially. The statistics tell me I have a lot to look forward to in the long run, and it will sure feel great after a bad start. As long as I can confirm in CVBJ that I'm making zero mistakes even in the most challenging conditions, I'm happy. My last trip was particularly painful - I started with a great +$4500 streak, then lost all of it plus $3000 more I had with me. But I still really don't care, I remember my first time losing $500 was more depressing before I had a true appreciation for standard deviation.

-I'm still up $815 overall, enough to pay for gas and such, and I've acquired about $500 in food and room comps plus close to $1000 worth of free drinks. It's been fun, I've learned a lot and am continuously improving, and I plan to keep at it.

 

[creeping panther]

Fwb

Hi all,
I thought I'd share the results of my first 350 hours as a regular AP. I've kept very detailed logs.

EV represents $/hr as reported by CVData plotted as a function of hours played with the conditions and strategy I was playing with at the time. You can consider $0 as the top of my bankroll - anything above that is profit.

Some thoughts:

-My first ~125 hours I look at as my novice card counter stage. I had only read a book or two and was just using Hi Lo with no indicies except for insurance. My betting ramp was simply just multiplying my base unit by the true count. I was thoroughly over-betting my bankroll at the time and happened to win just about all of my max bets due to sheer luck. At this point I was wondering if my huge success was due to dumb luck or actually good strategy, so I decided to invest in CVData and CVX with the extra cash. CVData confirmed my success was mostly due to positive variance.

-The 125 hour mark is where I consider myself going from the novice level to the expert level. Now that I had CVData and CVX, I started to really get in depth with the statistics, and maximizing profitability became almost an obsession to me. I have hundreds of simulations archived exploring literally every little aspect of the game. The jump in EV slope represents me changing strategies to Hi Opt II, ace side count, 25 indicies (and growing), with a c-SCORE optimized betting ramp. I also made the switch from shoe games to double deck.

-I think these results are a great illustration of the concept that no matter how good or bad your strategy is, and no matter how good the playing conditions are, standard deviation will always dominate the short term. I happened to have much better results during my first 125 hours, but as you know that doesn't necessarily mean my strategy or conditions were any good, in fact they were mediocre at best.

-If the beginning of my venture happened to represent the 250 hour mark and beyond, I would have probably given up card counting long ago. I imagine about half of new card counters start on that negative trend and don't have the bankroll to support it, so they give it up forever. The initial positive variance is what got me hooked. I'm willing to bet all of the now seasoned APs here had a similar start to mine (correct me if I'm wrong). I just don't see a player trying to count for the first time sticking out a negative run like that and continuing on...it's not how the human brain works. I've witnessed this with a bunch of my friends who have tried to join me.

-I won't bother griping about how harsh my last 100 hours were because I know a lot of you have been there, and I'd just be preaching to the choir with my sob stories, but I can say that my tolerance to bankroll pain has increased substantially. The statistics tell me I have a lot to look forward to in the long run, and it will sure feel great after a bad start. As long as I can confirm in CVBJ that I'm making zero mistakes even in the most challenging conditions, I'm happy. My last trip was particularly painful - I started with a great +$4500 streak, then lost all of it plus $3000 more I had with me. But I still really don't care, I remember my first time losing $500 was more depressing before I had a true appreciation for standard deviation.

-I'm still up $815 overall, enough to pay for gas and such, and I've acquired about $500 in food and room comps plus close to $1000 worth of free drinks. It's been fun, I've learned a lot and am continuously improving, and I plan to keep at it.

FWB,

Congrats, you are a winner, have had fun playing, (you were paid to have fun), received free rooms, food and drinks.

Being an AP is a great challenge even with the finest of games, comps can make a big difference, playing the comp system can be most rewarding.

Comps can make the difference in beating or being beaten by the casino.

My main suggestion is take care not to allow a $7,500 loss in one trip unless you are playing with a very large bank, and take care not to use SD as an excuse for large losses,,,far to convenient, look inward.

CP

 

[SleightOfHand]

So... you were overbetting before the 125 hour mark, yet your EV went from $16 to $100 per hour after it? Even improving your game and count system, thats a pretty big jump.

 

[Deathclutch]

I imagine about half of new card counters start on that negative trend and don't have the bankroll to support it, so they give it up forever. The initial positive variance is what got me hooked. I'm willing to bet all of the now seasoned APs here had a similar start to mine (correct me if I'm wrong).

I think there is a lot of truth to this statement. I started off the same with a huge swing on the positive side and same with you, that's what got me hooked.

 

[shiznites]

Cp

My main suggestion is take care not to allow a $7,500 loss in one trip unless you are playing with a very large bank, and take care not to use SD as an excuse for large losses,,,far to convenient, look inward.

CP

I'm not sure what you mean by this? Even with a $7k+ loss shouldn't you continue playing no matter what (given good playing conditions and you have the proper mindset)? More hours = better chance of being up, even if its all in the same trip.

And when you say "take care not to use SD as an excuse... look inward" do you mean just to make sure you're not making mistakes? Or is there something more specific I'm missing?

Thanks.
- shiz

 

[SleightOfHand]

I think there is a lot of truth to this statement. I started off the same with a huge swing on the positive side and same with you, that's what got me hooked.

I started with a loss that did not recover until 125 hours of play. I had a strong "faith" in the statistics and believed that as long as i kept playing, it would come back, which it did

I'm not sure what you mean by this? Even with a $7k+ loss shouldn't you continue playing no matter what (given good playing conditions and you have the proper mindset)? More hours = better chance of being up, even if its all in the same trip.

And when you say "take care not to use SD as an excuse... look inward" do you mean just to make sure you're not making mistakes? Or is there something more specific I'm missing?

Thanks.
- shiz

CP does not accept losses no matter how small they are. If he had a losing session, he would re-evaluate and improve his game. Which is why he is the panther of the midwest When you are in a negative swing, it is possible that you are making mistakes. However, even if you aren't, does that make it ok? A loss of 7k (depending on bankroll size) is too big to be ok with. Get a stronger game, improve your edge, and don't lose again. If the loss does occur, make it even better.

 

[UK-21]

What were the two EV figures, %age wise?

My modest positive result is sitting at over 3 Std Devs from my calculated EV - which is somewhat worrying maths wise but which I think has been skewed by:

Wonging out of neg counts where I could (not taken into account when calculating the EV) - a much greater benefit than I had previously thought,

Dealer payouts in my favour - had four over three sessions not so long ago, and the total of them amounted to around 10% of my winnings.

A "cash" comp I picked up along the way which was worth in the region of 3%of my winnings.

Not pressing an advantage due to lack of funds at the table one time - which turned out to work in my favour as I lost four hands on the trot at TC+4 (so losses were 16 units less than they should have been).

I really should stop playing . . . . .

 

[Katweezel]

What were the two EV figures, %age wise?

My modest positive result is sitting at over 3 Std Devs from my calculated EV - which is somewhat worrying maths wise but which I think has been skewed by:

Wonging out of neg counts where I could (not taken into account when calculating the EV) - a much greater benefit than I had previously thought,

Dealer payouts in my favour - had four over three sessions not so long ago, and the total of them amounted to around 10% of my winnings.

A "cash" comp I picked up along the way which was worth in the region of 3%of my winnings.

Not pressing an advantage due to lack of funds at the table one time - which turned out to work in my favour as I lost four hands on the trot at TC+4 (so losses were 16 units less than they should have been).

I really should stop playing . . . . .

But of course UK, you won't... After all, what could be more fun when you're winning? Those UK casinos are trembling with fear of your presence. :grin:

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deathclutch View Post
I think there is a lot of truth to this statement. I started off the same with a huge swing on the positive side and same with you, that's what got me hooked.

I started with a loss that did not recover until 125 hours of play. I had a strong "faith" in the statistics and believed that as long as i kept playing, it would come back, which it did

i started with wins that made it virtually unlikely i'd ever lose it all back and i had a strong "faith" in the statistics as well.
then i got slammed big time, lol.
made it time to go back to the drawing board and some introspection. i actually tried to apply some of that statistics to just what it was i had really done.
man it was surprising to realize i couldn't even apply the stats since the truth of the matter was i'd in practice done so much 'off the wall' sort of stuff. all the while thinking i'd been a pretty good truly disciplined counter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shiznites View Post
I'm not sure what you mean by this? Even with a $7k+ loss shouldn't you continue playing no matter what (given good playing conditions and you have the proper mindset)? More hours = better chance of being up, even if its all in the same trip.

And when you say "take care not to use SD as an excuse... look inward" do you mean just to make sure you're not making mistakes? Or is there something more specific I'm missing?

Thanks.
- shiz

CP does not accept losses no matter how small they are. If he had a losing session, he would re-evaluate and improve his game. Which is why he is the panther of the midwest When you are in a negative swing, it is possible that you are making mistakes. However, even if you aren't, does that make it ok? A loss of 7k (depending on bankroll size) is too big to be ok with. Get a stronger game, improve your edge, and don't lose again. If the loss does occur, make it even better.

heh, heh, i'm not sure what initial bank the OP had but 7k, that's a heap any way you look at it in my book. lmao, heck the loss that sent me back to the drawing board in the story i described above was $700, which was at the time around one seventh of my bank roll.
like i had just gotten my roll to the point where i thought i could widen my spread and bam, i got hit and ended up lowering it back down.
but yeah, isn't it a part of the idea of that Kelly stuff, that at some point one might want to start thinking about changing up how one structures their bets?
like ok, cvcx just i believe kind of shows ror constant for some bankroll betting some spread for some game sort of thing. that ror is described as the chance you'll lose that bankroll. still but ok, like to me, heck say i lose a big chunk of that bankroll, well then i just don't see my risk of ruin as being the same anymore, lol.
but ok, the original poster shows his results are always above where he started, loot-wise so i'd think his risk of ruin was still ok, as long as it was ok in the first place, lmao.
thing is once i win some money, not always but enough of the time i start thinking of that as my money, not just some loan from the casino, lmao.
point being maybe adjust the risk of ruin for all that money, so as to make it a bit more secure, especially maybe if things start going south on you, maybe.
so what ever a bit of caution can't hurt, like i don't have any doubt that even a pro who lives with large swings and roller coaster rides all over the place is gonna take a pretty darn close look at things if they don't follow EV up to some point or another.

 

[kewljason]

As long as I can confirm in CVBJ that I'm making zero mistakes even in the most challenging conditions, I'm happy.

A couple thoughts if I may.

1.) I don't know what this statement means? How can CVBJ confirm that you are not making mistakes when you play at the casino?

2.) I know I am wondering, as it seems are others about that sharp rise in expectation at the 125 hour mark. You state an upgrade to level 2 count (which should only improve EV mildly) and playing better games at this point, which also would improve EV, but this seems like a dramatic upturn. I think we are all wondering if there was a change in betting pattern at this point as well? like a much larger unit?

For my game and abilities, losses happen, and happen frequently. They are indeed part of the cycle for me. I am not a believer that you should not accept any loss, as Mr Panther is. However, I am not sure you should accept these results in stride, saying it is all routine. While 350 hours is indeed still short term, There is quite a difference in your EV for this point $24,000 and your winnings $815. With out knowing more details about your betting and bankroll, there is no way for me to tell how far off you are (how many SD's), but I can tell you I have never experienced anywhere near what you are talking about in 6 years and over 8000 hours of fulltime counting. Not trying to be discouraging here, but I would take this opportunity to re-examine everything about your game.

 

[kewljason]

but I can tell you I have never experienced anywhere near what you are talking about in 6 years and over 8000 hours of fulltime counting. Not trying to be discouraging here, but I would take this opportunity to re-examine everything about your game.

To correct my own post, my worse 300 hour period last summer, was indeed on a par with your results coming in $26,000 below expectation. (lost $8000 while expectation was win roughly $18,000). My mistake. However, I would still take this opportunity to re-examine everything.

Also wanted to congratulate you on very accurate record keeping and your use of software to know what your expectation is. It shows that you are serious about making money and allows you to examine and re-evalute your results more closely.

 

[Elhombre]

fwb that' the best example I ever read about avantageplay.

I do only sequenzing with an advantage of 3- 8%, with simular
experiances.
At the beginning I won more than the expected EV, after 4 month of daily
BJ play I fall into a little hole, not so bad as you and the last 4 weeks I am
struggling no more winnings, an even game , from what shall I buy bread,
support my family ? lol
Usually someone could get big doubts of his kind of game.

I will continue ever with no mercy.

Many thanks for your posting.

El Hombre :devil:

 

[assume_R]

but yeah, isn't it a part of the idea of that Kelly stuff, that at some point one might want to start thinking about changing up how one structures their bets?

like ok, cvcx just i believe kind of shows ror constant for some bankroll betting some spread for some game sort of thing. that ror is described as the chance you'll lose that bankroll. still but ok, like to me, heck say i lose a big chunk of that bankroll, well then i just don't see my risk of ruin as being the same anymore, lol.

I remember reading a few threads recently, perhaps in the theory and math section, in which some people talked about this. You probably already know this, but in its truest form of Kelly betting, you would simply calculate your advantage, and if it's 1%, bet 1% of whatever your bankroll happens to be at the time. Which will change what CVCX actually says your RoR is. Lots of other stuff to consider though as I'm sure you're aware... and I feel like I'm getting off topic.

Back on topic, to the OP: with a bit more information about how you calculated your EV I feel like some people here might have helpful advice for you.

 

[Billy C1]

fwb that' the best example I ever read about avantageplay.

I do only sequenzing with an advantage of 3- 8%, with simular
experiances.
At the beginning I won more than the expected EV, after 4 month of daily
BJ play I fall into a little hole, not so bad as you and the last 4 weeks I am
struggling no more winnings, an even game , from what shall I buy bread,
support my family ? lol
Usually someone could get big doubts of his kind of game.

I will continue ever with no mercy.

Many thanks for your posting.

El Hombre :devil:

You're kidding, right? If not, you shouldn't be playing 21 no matter how good of an AP you are!
Take care of your family before even considering playing BJ.

BillyC1

 

[blazin22]

Excellent post, thanks fwb, I'd like to see more posts along these lines from some of the more seasoned players.

 

[Elhombre]

You're kidding, right? If not, you shouldn't be playing 21 no matter how good of an AP you are!
Take care of your family before even considering playing BJ.

BillyC1

Sure Billy, I am kidding !! Sorry.

El Hombre

 

[matt21]

hi fwb, following along with kewljason's comments:

i would be very interested to see how many standard deviations your actual result is from your EV for those last 225 hours. The danger is that you are possibly overstating your EV.

good work though on clocking up 350 hours. Yes I also started with an upswing when i first did counting. Agree with your statements there.