6:5 games; a blessing in disguise

[meteomonk]

I've been playing an east coast casino with pitiful blackjack games. It is almost entirely continious shuffle machines and single deck with a 6:5 payout.. Due to the nature of this area, casinos are very sparse, and before by bankroll allows flights or long hotel stays i must make due.
however i inadvertantly have created quite the niche. I believe the casino has created a safe blackjack situation for themselves, and lost any concern for counters. Partly due to the low stakes play, and partly their confidence in their rules, the pit bosses seem to stare into space, talk about rediculous things and joke around, not keen at all. The dealers seem to know what i'm up to, but some well placed tip bets at high counts/bets and their quite happy. I've been told that the eye in the sky folks are probably laughing at me for struggling an edge on this awful game however, I've had several months of between 1-20 and 1-40 bet spreads.
Now, i understand the large setback due to 6:5 payouts, but i've read that you only need a 1-16 spread to return to normal single deck 1-5 spread advantage percentage. So question #1. do i have an uncommonly large advantage right now? and #2. I understand this is far to risky, but i havn't yet researched formulas and software for risk analysis, so can anyone help me with risk of ruin spreading 5-200 with a $2,000 bankroll with these rules (single deck, 1-40 spread, 6:5 payout, resplit aces). anyone else have similar experiences? lets get them using their own countemeasures:whip:!!!! happy ap'ing you all!:cool2:

 

[callipygian]

question #1. do i have an uncommonly large advantage right now?

I'm not convinced you have an advantage at all. One of the reasons that 6:5 blackjack is poor for counting is not just the large house edge at zero count, but also because of the reduced payout, the effect of card removal is lower. You can't just shift the normal counts down by -4 and play a TC of +5 as +1.

I'd recommend making sure you have an advantage before you plunk any more money down.

 

[Kasi]

, I've had several months of between 1-20 and 1-40 bet spreads...

How you been doing with this uncommonly good advantage

Now you're wondering what to expect?

Whatever, it all depends on everything you haven't mentioned.

Just bet $5 when you have the advantage and nothing when you don't and it's a +EV game for you. lol

 

[Sonny]

With a 1-40 spread you could conceivably get a 1.5% edge if you know how to bet properly. However, with only 10 max bets your RoR is over 90%. If you play this game with $2k you should expect to go broke, and probably very quickly. For a 5% RoR you would need closer to $78k. That’s a lot of capital for a $7.50/hour return.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm not convinced you have an advantage at all. One of the reasons that 6:5 blackjack is poor for counting is not just the large house edge at zero count, but also because of the reduced payout, the effect of card removal is lower. You can't just shift the normal counts down by -4 and play a TC of +5 as +1.

I'd recommend making sure you have an advantage before you plunk any more money down.

The EoR are different, but not that different. The 9 and the A are worth about the same, which is half what the 10 is worth. So Mentor would be a good choice, as would Zen or UBZ. It's still playable with High-Low.

 

[moo321]

The EoR are different, but not that different. The 9 and the A are worth about the same, which is half what the 10 is worth. So Mentor would be a good choice, as would Zen or UBZ. It's still playable with High-Low.

Good idea. You'll need to switch counts. Add lots of index plays as well.

Some of the numbers I'm hearing being thrown around for advantage don't sound right. If the pen is decent, you should be able to get a decent return for a 1-20 spread, and 1-40 you might be able to slaughter it. Just make sure you're betting properly. And expect to get caught eventually.

I also agree with Sonny, however, that this game isn't good for your bankroll. Your best bet is probably a real job until you get a few more thousand, but if you don't want to do that, you should be back-counting shoes.

 

[ihate17]

40-1 spread, $7.50 per hour=why bother!

The variance is enourmous. To have a half way decent ROR you need a 50,000 or more bankroll behind you to make a minisule profit in the long run. That is if you ever get there.

The only time that I consider a 6/5 game a blessing is when the dealer is real weak. Then the idea that the pit and eye do not watch the game closely may help you. On the other hand, even with the horrid rules on 6/5, it seems most casinos still watch it carefully as if they do not understand just how bad of a game they are dealing.

ihate17

 

[moo321]

The variance is enourmous. To have a half way decent ROR you need a 50,000 or more bankroll behind you to make a minisule profit in the long run. That is if you ever get there.

The only time that I consider a 6/5 game a blessing is when the dealer is real weak. Then the idea that the pit and eye do not watch the game closely may help you. On the other hand, even with the horrid rules on 6/5, it seems most casinos still watch it carefully as if they do not understand just how bad of a game they are dealing.

ihate17

I'm not sure I agree with the $7.50 an hour part of it.

Although perhaps the point is moot, because back-counting is probably better than even a 1-40 spread.

 

[FLASH1296]

Automatic Monkey stated: "The EoR are different, but not that different. The 9 and the A are worth about the same, which is half what the 10 is worth. So Mentor would be a good choice, as would Zen or UBZ. It's still playable with High-Low."

In normal BJ the E.O.R. for a 9 is about 1/3 that of a Ten and an Ace is a little higher than a Ten.

In this game the Ace probably should NOT be reckoned.
As such, my favorite count, ZEN, I would NOT use.
Hi-Opt II or Advanced Omega II would be my choices, with the edge going to the latter as it includes 9's.

The other BIG advantage to using these powerhouse Level Two counts, besides being able to completely ignore the Aces, is that these counts have the best playing correlations at .67 or so.
For shoe games memorizing a full matrix of idices is harly worth the effort, but in a Single Deck Game it is of paramount importance.

 

[zengrifter]

With a 1-40 spread you could conceivably get a 1.5% edge if you know how to bet properly. However, with only 10 max bets your RoR is over 90%. If you play this game with $2k you should expect to go broke, and probably very quickly. For a 5% RoR you would need closer to $78k. That’s a lot of capital for a $7.50/hour return.

I think that for a game like this he shouldn't need 78k - did you actually sim it? I would guess that 20k would suffice?? zg

 

[Sonny]

I think that for a game like this he shouldn't need 78k - did you actually sim it?

Yeah, that was from CVData. I had to make a few assumptions, but I used the following settings:

SD, H17, DA2, nDAS, nSurr, RSA, RO6, 6:5 BJs
HiLo, Ill18, full-deck resolution, half-deck estimation, truncated TCs

It gave an EV of around 1.5 units per 100 hands with a SD of about 125 units per 100 hands.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Automatic Monkey stated: "The EoR are different, but not that different. The 9 and the A are worth about the same, which is half what the 10 is worth. So Mentor would be a good choice, as would Zen or UBZ. It's still playable with High-Low."

In normal BJ the E.O.R. for a 9 is about 1/3 that of a Ten and an Ace is a little higher than a Ten.

In this game the Ace probably should NOT be reckoned.
As such, my favorite count, ZEN, I would NOT use.
Hi-Opt II or Advanced Omega II would be my choices, with the edge going to the latter as it includes 9's.

But if you're going to count the 9's, why not count the aces too? It can't hurt you as long as you count them as what they are worth.

The other BIG advantage to using these powerhouse Level Two counts, besides being able to completely ignore the Aces, is that these counts have the best playing correlations at .67 or so.
For shoe games memorizing a full matrix of idices is harly worth the effort, but in a Single Deck Game it is of paramount importance.

I don't agree. The Illustrious 18 is the Illustrious 18. Yes there are benefits to additional index numbers, sometimes, and when I was using HO2 I was using 33 index numbers. Still I can't call more than 18 indices "paramount."

 

[Ferretnparrot]

Im not disagreeing that you need a lot of money to play this game, but i think that simming it with half deck estimation is going to have a huge negetive effect when compared to what is going to happen in reality, if you cant gauge a single deck game with better accuracy than half a deck, you shouldnt be conting cards, surely 1/6th or 1/8 is more realistic