$6,850 Ahead in 13 Months ... Decent or No

[leatherguyray]

I am pretty new to card counting, but I have played bj for years. I have learned the Red Sevens count and to true count it. I use the simple 6 indices Arnold recommneds in the first half of the shoe and the advanced indices through the second half of the shoe. That is where I am today.

The question I hope to get answered with some degree of professional, actual experience play behind the answer will involve showing you a little concerning where I have been the past 13 months. Though I have played the same way for a long time I only began keeping actual records last year and on through January of this year for a total of 13 months hard record.

The simple question I ask is: Is the 13 month record I present to you below a decent result based upon the number of sessions, the bankroll used and the betting unit used? In addition, is the 13 month actual record long enough to give any reasonable indication of some sort of longer term positive expectation. Remember, I have played a long time with very similar results, but I only have the 13 months of "pen to paper" record keeping.

I am not asking for math here. I am asking for opinion based upon what is presented and your actual experiences playing the game. Nothing more.

I averaged 5 sessions per week x 56 weeks = 280 sessions played

Session durations ranged from 1 to 12 hours each ... probably averaged 3-6

I won 4 out each 7 times at the table = 120 losses and 160 winning sessions

My losses for 120 of the sessions was $24,600.00 (That is $200.00 per losing session plus $600.00 in doubles, splits, etc on the last hand before quitting)

My wins for the other 160 sessions was $31,450.00

My winnings, in pocket, are $6,850.00 for that period

13 Months = $526.92 per month

For 56 weeks that averages = $122.32 won per week

That averages $42.81 actual winnings per winning session

The way I have managed my play is:

I buy into a session with $200.00 and never invest more than that in any single session. Losing the $200.00 buy is my loss limit with the occasional exception of needing to double or split, etc on the last hand before exiting.

I never leave the casino a loser if I have, at any time, been ahead by as much as one half of my buy.

I begin a session with a $5.00 base bet unit

Zero is my loss limit

If my table bankroll increases to $300.00, I set $50.00 aside along with my original $200.00 buy in to establish a stop loss at $250.00

If my table bankroll then continues to increase to $400.00 I add $50.00 to my stop loss and increase my base bet unit to $10.00

From there I continue adding $50.00 of each $100.00 increase to my stop loss until, when and if, my total table bankroll reaches $500.00 I increase my base bet unit to $15.00

Then I continue play adding as above to my stop loss and bet increases until such time as that stop loss is realized, or in a few cases, where I just decided to quit.

My winning sessions look like this:

Number of sessions X Dollars Won = Total Dollars for that number sessions

64 At less than $100.00 = $600.00
36 x $100.00 = $3,600.00
18 x $125.00 = $2,250.00
12 x $150.00 = $1,800.00
20 x $200.00 = $4,000.00
19 x $300.00 = $5,700.00
9 x $400.00 = $3,600.00
7 x $500.00 = $3,500.00
1 x $600.00 = $600.00
1 x $700.00 = $700.00
1 x $2,800.00 = $2,800.00
1 x $1,100.00 = $1,100.00
1 x $1,200.00 = $1,200.00

Total wins = $31,450.00 minus $24,600.00 Losses = $6,850.00 in pocket

Again, my question(s) is: From your experience is this 13 month record decent in terms of what you might hope to expect from the sessions played , the bankroll and the base bet sizes? And, is this 13 month record (in your opinion) any indication of what future expectation may be?

I'll hope to pose a follow-up question after I have received some solid answers to the question(s) already asked. Thanks

 

[Sharky]

congrats on being ahead, but you are only earning about $5/hr not counting expenses so I hope you are doing it for enjoyment purposes only.

That $5 is less than one unit/hr., which is low. I suspect your spread is too narrow, however if you are quitting at $200 you cannot spread much.

Instead of 5x/wk @ $200, play just once w/ $1000 and spread 10-12 units and wong amap. Heck, play once every 2 weeks with $2k.

You should win more $$$ in less time - which you are wasting now at $5/hr.

Also log your hours per session so you have a better handle on this figure and stay away from 12 hr sessions as that is just too long.

 

[leatherguyray]

Thank for your thoughts. Yes, I have been pretty much a recreational player, but even so I have worked hard to not be a losing recreational player. I'd play, because I enjoy playing, even if it were a break even deal. Don't get me wrong. To make a little more and be a little more certain with future play is why I now have begun to count.

As you said, I can do a lot better doing several things differently and I am working toward doing that. But the record I presented was my former play and for some considerations in mind I just wanted opinion on whether the megar yield was decent for the small amount invested ... and more important, is the 13 month record I listed with this play any reasonably good indicator of future expectation were I to continue in the same way?

 

[Karna]

I think it's great that you're ahead, especially after risking so little. Money is money.

I agree with Sharky's comments. I would also suggest not raising your minimum bet beyond $5, even if you are ahead. If anything should be increased, it would be the spread.

 

[Meistro]

You have done very well, congrats.

 

[EmeraldCityBJ]

Congratulations on your wins to date.

Again, my question(s) is: From your experience is this 13 month record decent in terms of what you might hope to expect from the sessions played , the bankroll and the base bet sizes?

Unfortunately, there is not enough information provided in your post to know whether or not your results are consistent with your expectation. To determine your expectation, we'd need more information on the game you're playing and on your bet spread. You mention that you're playing a shoe game, but fail to comment on number of decks, penetration, game rules, or typical game speed. You mention that you use a $5 betting unit (which sometimes increases to $10 or to $15 if you're having a winning session), but you fail to comment on how much you're betting at each individual count. Instead, you provide a whole bunch of statistics around individual session results. While these results may be interesting and fun to look at, they are meaningless in terms of determining how your actual results compare to your theoretical results.

And, is this 13 month record (in your opinion) any indication of what future expectation may be?

The results themselves are not an indicator of future results, but based on the information you chose to provide in your post, I think it's clear that there are some concepts you should revisit if you want to maximize your profits while minimizing your risk in the future.

Rather than focusing on short term individual sessions, the focus should be on the long term. Your bet sizing should be based on your total bankroll size and your risk tolerance. Your current system of starting sessions with $5 bets, and then increasing to $10 or $15 if you win likely means you're underbetting when playing $5, you're overbetting when playing $15, or perhaps both. It's very unlikely that your total bankroll will fluctuate enough within a single session to warrant significant changes in your bet sizing.

The next factor which is going to inhibit your results in the future is your stop-win and stop-loss rules. If I were to offer you 3:2 odds on a coin flip, would you quit playing the game if you lost $200 after a few bad flips of the coin? What would be the right reasons to stop playing any game which offers you an advantage?

There are a few reasons to implement a stop-win or a stop-loss. Your stop-loss should usually be dictated by how much of your bankroll you bring to the casino. To avoid having to leave a +EV opportunity, it's usually best to bring as much of your bankroll as you're comfortable carrying with you. Some pros also need to set a stop-loss at around $10,000 since they cannot afford to give up their identity if they CTR. If you care about longevity at the casino at all, it would be wise to set a stop-win which is below the casino's pain threshhold. For example, if you know a tape review is triggered for any win of $3k or more, you may want to set a stop-win at some amount below this figure.

At your current betting levels, all of the reasons I state for setting a stop-win or stop-loss likely are not going to apply to you. There is no reason for you to keep yourself from getting your EV just because of your own self-inflicted stop-win and stop-loss rules.

 

[leatherguyray]

Thanks, Emeraldcitybj, Very sound advice that will absolutely be followed. The record I provided was accomplished without counting and I had originally intended to pose a follow up question regarding that PAST betting style combined with counting. I don't need to do that now. I have set aside the old way entirely and will be counting using the red sevens I selected and according to the way Arnold lays it out. I may change or update or improve later, but for now it will be counting in chosen games, according to bankroll and with an established and proper bet ramp and ROR.

Thanks for your reply. It was well put, straightforward and easily understood. It is probably more help than you realize.