7 7 vs 8

KewlJ said:
Please stop with the "imbecile" reference. Let's just try to have a respectful sharing of ideas, for a change.

I don't subscribe to the idea of a 'cookie cutter', pre-set bet spread. Every player situation and circumstances are different and there are a number of factors that should go into it. Now a optimal bet spread for game being played based on bankroll, easily figured by computer is a starting point, or more accurately for me, a comparison point for what I ultimately come up with for each different game and circumstance I encounter.

I will give you some examples based on my situation as a full time player with a top priority of longevity. So lets take a generic 6 deck game, standard rules (h17, Das, DoA). First thing I look at is what max bet amount will be well tolerated for that casinos and even that time of day and day of week, because it is different for different time. Let me define tolerated for my need. I am talking about, I play until the shuffle after hitting max bet (a relatively short session). So let's say I have won about 4 max bets in that short span. That is not expectation by any means. Expectation is far below that number. I am just looking for a situation where I can gage that hitting max pen and registering a small win ($1600), is not going to cause anyone to think twice, meaning I will be welcome back to play again, even as early as tomorrow if I wanted.

So let's say I decide that max bet number is $400 for that session at that time of day. And my bankroll supports that. So the next factor is spread. What spread will be well tolerated and not cause anyone to think twice for that session. 1-12 spread is considered reasonable for a 6 deck game. So do I go $25-$400 (1-16)? or do I go $50-$400 (1-8)? I have sort of adopted an inbetweener strategy of spreading both ways, betting $50 off the top and dropping to $25 during negative counts until exit trigger. This generally makes the spread look 1-8, unless that shoe first goes negative and then positive all the way to max bet. THAT is the only scenario that I show full spread within one shoe, and it really is fairly rare.

So that is my spread for that game at that situation. Next I move to a casino down the street, same basic rules, but I have determined through experience, that $400 max bet is a little too rich for their blood. I set max bet to $300 and refigure the whole situation. And later I come back to that first casino, but it is a busier evening or weekend shift and I have determined that I can go above that $400 max bet and break through the $500 threshold that is often a key threshold, maybe bet $600 or $800 max bet, so I have a whole new spread and max bet for that same game. And none of them measure up to what a computer is telling me is optimal spread. Of course the computer optimal number is completely void of "heat" concerns and comfort levels for each casino and situation, where as that is a major, THE major consideration for me.

So I would steer clear of that concept of "pre-set" bet spread. Try to figure out, through experience what YOU can play for each situation. That will be YOUR optimal spread and it will differ from what a computer tells you is optimal spread. It also will increase what I "loosely" call variance", more accurately normal swings. So a player with concerns over that and not willing to trade that off, probably should dismiss everything I say and go back to the cookie cutter approach. :cool:
Would you ever play 2 hands but same or lower max bet each so let's say 2x25 - 2x200? Doing this might generate less heat don't you think?