7/8 Penetration Advantage?

#1
Recently Foxwoods changed the penetration of the shoe to 7/8. It is my first time playing such a deep shoe. When a positive TC has appeared near the end of a shoe, I have increased my bet and ultimately get killed. This has happened a few times. Now I wonder what validity a positive count trully has at this point in the shoe. If for example you have a true count of +2/3 and there are only 1.5 decks left, do you really still have an advantage? Isn't the count at this point useless since most of the (high) cards have already passed? Do you have false advantage in this situation with so few cards left?

I have looked around on BJinfo for some information and have read some posts which have touched upon this subject. I would love to read any other thoughts or opinions on this topic. I also would love to hear from any other players' experiences at Foxwoods since the rules changed. I barely ever see positive counts! Thanks.
 
#3
Your advantage increases at the same TC as the number of cards to be played decreases. You have it back words. It's just bad variance.
 

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#4
halbruno said:
Recently Foxwoods changed the penetration of the shoe to 7/8. It is my first time playing such a deep shoe. When a positive TC has appeared near the end of a shoe, I have increased my bet and ultimately get killed. This has happened a few times. Now I wonder what validity a positive count trully has at this point in the shoe. If for example you have a true count of +2/3 and there are only 1.5 decks left, do you really still have an advantage? Isn't the count at this point useless since most of the (high) cards have already passed? Do you have false advantage in this situation with so few cards left?

I have looked around on BJinfo for some information and have read some posts which have touched upon this subject. I would love to read any other thoughts or opinions on this topic. I also would love to hear from any other players' experiences at Foxwoods since the rules changed. I barely ever see positive counts! Thanks.
TC at 7/8 and TC at 1/8 are the same. There is a slight gain in your last deck of a few tenths of a percent due to floating advantage so you could say that each TC is worth another 1/2 of a count on your last couple of rounds. (i.e., +3 is +3 early in the shoe but you can bet it like +3.5 on the last few rounds).

When all of your marbles for the profit or loss of a given shoe come down to one round at the end of course you're gonna get beat pretty often. You're overestimating how big a 3% advantage is at the end of a big shoe...it's still not all that big. (Think about how many people still manage to win at 3 Card Poker despite a 3%+ disadvantage on EVERY hand).

Blackjack counting is about grinding out profits with small edge over thousands of hands. If you want a bigger edge then you need to add other things like cutting, tracking, hole carding, steering, etc to your arsenal.
 

jaygruden

Well-Known Member
#5
halbruno said:
Recently Foxwoods changed the penetration of the shoe to 7/8. It is my first time playing such a deep shoe. When a positive TC has appeared near the end of a shoe, I have increased my bet and ultimately get killed. This has happened a few times. Now I wonder what validity a positive count trully has at this point in the shoe. If for example you have a true count of +2/3 and there are only 1.5 decks left, do you really still have an advantage? Isn't the count at this point useless since most of the (high) cards have already passed? Do you have false advantage in this situation with so few cards left?

I have looked around on BJinfo for some information and have read some posts which have touched upon this subject. I would love to read any other thoughts or opinions on this topic. I also would love to hear from any other players' experiences at Foxwoods since the rules changed. I barely ever see positive counts! Thanks.
I have come across several rookie dealers at the newer casinos who have only cut out 1 deck or less out of 8 and thought the same thing that you are describing. There have been times when that deep penetration and monster count at the end of the shoe have felt more like a curse than a blessing as I got taken to the wood shed. You need to trust the math and keep plugging away. I've had many of my biggest wins in these situations as well. You will always have big swings in these situations simply because you have your max bet out there several times at the end of great penetration shoes. Your advantage is small but that's why you count...to get as much out there as you can get away with when you have the best advantage you will get. It will even itself out so keep playing the game if the rules are favorable.
 

shinyam

Well-Known Member
#6
jaygruden said:
i have come across several rookie dealers at the newer casinos who have only cut out 1 deck or less out of 8 and thought the same thing that you are describing. There have been times when that deep penetration and monster count at the end of the shoe have felt more like a curse than a blessing as i got taken to the wood shed. You need to trust the math and keep plugging away. I've had many of my biggest wins in these situations as well. You will always have big swings in these situations simply because you have your max bet out there several times at the end of great penetration shoes. Your advantage is small but that's why you count...to get as much out there as you can get away with when you have the best advantage you will get. It will even itself out so keep playing the game if the rules are favorable.
+1
 
#8
Gamblor said:
I don't think a slightly worse pen is that bad.
With decent rules like LS 1.5 decks cut off is reasonable. I can usually find a dealer cutting skinnier in stores with 1.5 though, close to 1 deck.
 
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