8th outing - Lessons learned

[EasyRhino]

I don't know how much, but EV would get a kick if you could spread to two hands when playing with the one other patsy only during positive counts.

I have to get over this stupid notion that maybe I will get lucky even if it's an unacceptable count,

Yes you do. It also helps if you get out of the notion that you might get lucky in a positive count, as it will help gird you for the high-count beatdowns.

 

[aslan]

I don't know how much, but EV would get a kick if you could spread to two hands when playing with the one other patsy only during positive counts.


Yes you do. It also helps if you get out of the notion that you might get lucky in a positive count, as it will help gird you for the high-count beatdowns.

I've had one of those "high-count beatdowns" and it's taken a while to get back to betting the full 10X spread in shoe games. Every time the count gets high I remember all those blackjacks and twenties the deal got, and all the 14, 15, and 16's I got, betting two hands at $100 a hand. I used to think RoR calculations were a bit conservative; now I see that they are "right on!"

 

[zengrifter]

Because I play so poorly?

Prayer? Not at all, I just figured that you included it, as I would include meditation.
Afterall, my interview is the only pro-story-source that actually considers the power of prayer,
meditation, and going with your 6th sense, on BJ.

And thank you for the kind words. z(Da Bum)g

 

[aslan]

Prayer? Not at all, I just figured that you included it, as I would include meditation.
Afterall, my interview is the only pro-story-source that actually considers the power of prayer,
meditation, and going with your 6th sense, on BJ.

And thank you for the kind words. z(Da Bum)g

Not quite the same.

But there are types of Christian prayer that result in a spiritual detachment that may be similar to that derived from Eastern meditation.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Also, I'll always remember this trip, since I didn't play a single slot machine for the first time ever in over twenty years!

you must be down a lot of money lifetime

Even a 10x spread is highly marginal in play-all vs 6d... you've got to be wonging also for 10x to work.

thats highly false.. if you only play at positive counts, you dont even need to spread to have the advantage, and if you only play at positive counts and spread 1-10, your probably looking at a 1%+ advantage

... the additional time it takes to get to a good count in 8D is made up for by the fact a good count will on the average last longer.

if thats true, then that would mean there would be no difference between 8 and 6 decks, except for the small house edge difference of .02%

one question though, what kind of advantage (if any) would you get if you play all say w/ 1 other player on the table going 1-10 at 8D 75% pen AC rules? i personally rraaarrreely play all, but i'd like to know

you would have a decent advantage i would think, but it would be best to wong out at at least -2, and if you wong out at 0, then your advantage would be large (over 1% i think)

I don't have the book with me, but if my memory is correct, it's very low, like 0.044%, or something like that. If you're one on one, you can't wong in and out; you either keep playing or quit. However, I didn't have to play heads up for an entire shoe.

that sounds very low

To be honest ive never even tangled with an 8D game. I do know those 6D games are extremely tough beat, especially in a play-all enviroment. As a matter of fact, unless you employ some serious wongin, with some big spreads or team play. I really dont see these games being that profitable.

not sure what you consider serious wonging, but you can have an advantage w/ out spreading if you play in only positive counts, but thats obvious.. i would like to know how huge your advantage would be with 1-10, play only at positive counts.. i would imagine it would be larger than most sd/dd with play all with like a 1-8 spread

 

[sagefr0g]

.... Then you will find 6D vs. 8D makes very little difference, because the additional time it takes to get to a good count in 8D is made up for by the fact a good count will on the average last longer. .....

i've read that the rate of change for a count is more 'sluggish' for eight deck than six deck. i believe Renzey mentions this in regards to multi deck games in Blackjack Bluebook II.
the thing i wonder about regarding this is that such sluggishness (ie. a good count lasting longer) may not be such a good thing. since it is when the count falls that we actually realize our advantage. when the count stays high we don't realize the advantage unless i suppose when the count just falls a little while still staying realitively positive.

 

[aslan]

i've read that the rate of change for a count is more 'sluggish' for eight deck than six deck. i believe Renzey mentions this in regards to multi deck games in Blackjack Bluebook II.
the thing i wonder about regarding this is that such sluggishness (ie. a good count lasting longer) may not be such a good thing. since it is when the count falls that we actually realize our advantage. when the count stays high we don't realize the advantage unless i suppose when the count just falls a little while still staying realitively positive.

My actual experience through well over a hundred hours (I know it's not that much) of mixed play (8d and 6d) is that the 8d actually has fewer, meaningful positive counts, as they usually come very late (one round) or come and go, whereas the 6d gets to the positive counts quicker, and while they are usually short-lived, sometimes they do last several rounds, even at a full table. I don't know why; I'm just reporting what I have experienced. Also, I like 6d because if I do wong out, a short trip to the bathroom is all I need to return to a new shuffle, whereas in 8d the shoe drags out and I seem to be wasting precious time. Also, the positive counts in 6d seem to favor the player more than the positive counts in 8d. Again, I don't know why, but it could be that in 6d the positive counts are closer to the mid-shoe point. Does anyone know?

BTW, someone said I might get backed off next trip since the last time I played 6d I was given only 60% pen. The particular casino had never offered me room comps before (I have played there 6-8 partial days), but now they have offered me two days a week including Saturday and Sunday. It doesn't sound like they are much worried about my petty <$1,000 wins, nor my cessation of slot play.

 

[21forme]

I find playing 8D shoes borders on painful. 6D shoes go positive much more often.


Good for you on the room comps, Aslan. I have a premium card there, and I've never been offered weekend rooms.

Marketing and gaming must not talk to each other. Despite the fact I now get backed off there as soon as someone recognizes me, I still get (weekday) room offers.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...if thats true, then that would mean there would be no difference between 8 and 6 decks, except for the small house edge difference of .02%...

No, not fully. It depends on how you are playing them. If you are playing all, you are in trouble at 6D but even bigger trouble at 8D. If you are sitting down at the shuffle and Wonging out, you will play more hands at the beginning of the shoe without an advantage and this decreases EV. If you are backcounting, you're going to be entering 6D and 8D shoes at random points and the only loss associated with 8D is a slight time loss. In the real world there is also an extra time loss with 6D because they spend more time shuffling and screwing around between shoes.

 

[aslan]

No, not fully. It depends on how you are playing them. If you are playing all, you are in trouble at 6D but even bigger trouble at 8D. If you are sitting down at the shuffle and Wonging out, you will play more hands at the beginning of the shoe without an advantage and this decreases EV. If you are backcounting, you're going to be entering 6D and 8D shoes at random points and the only loss associated with 8D is a slight time loss. In the real world there is also an extra time loss with 6D because they spend more time shuffling and screwing around between shoes.

Actually, when ASM's are used for 6d (as was sometimes the case), 6d is much faster than 8d with manual shuffling. Also, 6d manual shuffling is a bit faster than 8d manual shuffling, but as you say, they do it more often, so I guess it evens out.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

BTW, someone said I might get backed off next trip since the last time I played 6d I was given only 60% pen. The particular casino had never offered me room comps before (I have played there 6-8 partial days), but now they have offered me two days a week including Saturday and Sunday. It doesn't sound like they are much worried about my petty <$1,000 wins, nor my cessation of slot play.

im pretty sure your comps have nothing to do with getting backed off.. you could receive tons of comps in the mail and still be on their "list" of counters (if there is such a list)

 

[flyingwind]

The last thing I'd like to mention is that one ploppy in the game told my friend who sat next to her that I always seemed to know when to bet, I must be counting. It happened right after some swings from $10 to $100 bets in which I won all or nearly all. He said the dealer overheard and gave her a knowing look. Another time, a young ploppy said as I left the game, "You always know when to bet high." In this session I was down almost $300, then suddenly in a positive count I reversed it and came out $22 winner. If ploppys can see it, no doubt the house is completely aware. I wonder why they don't do something, although at one table the yellow card cut out a good two and a half decks and I suddenly had to leave for dinner. lol

(There is way too much to read on this board.)

I was reading your trip report from years ago, and I can identify with this paragraph. More recently, I've been hearing these comments from dealers, other players at the table, other players at the buffet, and players standing behind me. Umm.... does this mean I'm not playing enough cover? Or what? Is it that obvious that I know when to bet? In the earlier part of your report, you said that you would bet less than the 10X spread because you were trying to protect some winnings but decided not to since you have the advantage. I've tried to vary the high bets from 5X to 10X at good counts just to try to play some cover, but I think as you said - "if ploppys can see it, no doubt the house is aware."

I'm curious - years later now, are you barred from the place you played at where they cut the shoe by two decks on you? Or can you still play there? And if you do, do you get the regular cut, or a worse cut?