90% chance of winning in a given session

[DSCH]

I understand that regardless of the advantage that you may have in a given blackjack game, you are never guaranteed to come out ahead in a given session. You may win in 10 sessions and lose in 8 sessions, or even win in 8 sessions and lose in 10 sessions still coming out ahead, or even win in 10 sessions and lose in 8 sessions and come out behind.

Would you say that a good counter with a 2% advantage has a 90% or greater chance of coming out ahead in the "long term"?

If so, given a large enough bankroll to handle the possibly huge up/down swings, how long would a session need to be to give you a 90% chance of coming out ahead in that session? In other words, how long would a session need to be to be considered a long enough term to get such odds of coming out ahead? If you could play 36 hours straight, for example, would that do it?

 

[john]

nothing is guaranteed in gambling

Hey. Your questions are answered in Blackjack Attack but I won't make you buy it to find some answers since I didn't write the book.

Your question has a complicated mathematical answer. It depends on a huge number of factors.

There is something called NO . I don't know what it stands for but I'm sure someone else does.

For a good game, like 75 % pen, 6 deck, DAS, DOA, aces 1, no surrender, I have found out that on CVCX, it says my NO is 37,600 or around that. NO also takes into consideration your bet spread and wonging in/out.

I think what that 37,600 says is that after 37,600 rounds of blackjack, I can expect to be ahead because I am now in the "long run" . Someone correct me if I am wrong because I haven't studied NO that much and am still reading Blackjack Attack 3rd edition.

I know what you mean. It would be nice to put together a quick $100,000 bankroll and play 36 hours and walk away with $10,000 dollars. You can't expect to be ahead after only 36 hours of play. I lost $1000 dollars today. I wasn't playing black chips. It hurts a little. I am an advantage player but I lost today. If I was playing blackchips, I would have lost around $4000 dollars. Actually, $1000 dollars isn't very much to me. I lost $3000 dollars last week. You just never know what is going to happen. That is why I think it is ridiculous that card counters are treated so poorly.

 

[Syph]

One correction..

Hi John,

One correction I`d like to make. A NO of 37,600 rounds is a TERRIBLE game. Absolutely hideous.

If you wish to build your bankroll by getting into the long run, stick to games that are 10,000 rounds or less.

(Incidentally, NO is calculated by squaring the SD and dividing by the Win rate. This will give you a Full Kelly bankroll. Divide this by your win rate, again, to determine how many hours it will take to overcome the fluctuations so as to be reasonably sure you are ahead. Multiply this number by 100 to get your rounds. This will be the outcome about 70% of the time, to attain 95% certainty that you will be ahead, multiply the NO by 4x)

(While I`m on the topic, simply double your Full Kelly bankroll to reduce your ROR from 13.5% to <2%. However this will also double your NO. And so you might want to consult that post of Clarke`s...and read Blackjack Therapy as well. Honest!)

Best,
Syph

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Hey Syph....

Shoot me an e-mail @ [email protected]. I sold my house and am leaving Reno Thursday. I'll be in Texas working cattle for a while (a friend's 89yo father needs some help). Then I'll probably retire to a small town in New Mexico. I'm finished with cities, noise, traffic, casinos, cold weather, a**holes, and idiots. I'm in the Walden's Pond phase of life.

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Old Car Counters Never Die

they just fade into the sunset! ;>

Happy Trails AM. It has been a pleasure. Punch a few doggies fur me will ya?

Rob

 

[zengrifter]

sounds like he's ready to...

... teach english in a rice village! zg

 

[Alexander Mundy]

Thanks Rob...

Unless I get trampled to death in a stampede, I'll be back. Just feel like "dropping out" for a while. No phone, no TV, no internet. Than I'll build a small Santa Fe-style pueblo in New Mexico and go gently into the night. You always seemed to maintain a good balance between faith, family, work, gambling, and unregistered securities. Keep it up.
AM

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Will Do

Sante Fe architecture has always been a fave of mine. Simple and classic. Sante Fe quisine is also another fave of mine. Don't drop right out of existance, let the world come to you. Make your villa big enough and open a bed and breakfast. Grab a few out of this world recipes and before too long you'll be well known again. You see, you can't keep a good man down Alex, and that is why the world just won't leave you alone! ;>

Best,
Rob

 

[john]

I'm afraid I can't

do better than 37,000 rounds where I am from.

There are no surrender games around here.

If the games are so bad, why am I doing so well ? Am I just on a streak ?

I don't play all by the way. I'm putting my reeboks on and doing some walking and some wonging.