lessthanjed
New Member
I'm new here, but I've been testing some new theories I have, and I want to get an idea of what people think about them...
I'm trying to develop some strategies for what I normally play live, which is 5 dollar minimum 500 max, single deck, dealer hits on soft 17, insurance is offered on Ace only, you can double on any two cards, but you can't double after split, and you can only split same cards...
My counting strategy that I use works this way (note this is only to keep an idea of my ratio of big to little cards): I keep a count of every card that's been played, I.E. if there are 4 players, I automatically know there will initially be 10 cards in play, and it's easy to count when people start taking cards... I then keep a count of every 10 or higher card played, and keep the ratio of small to large cards in my mind so I can adjust my basic strategy. For example, if 20 cards are played and only 5 face cards come out, it reduces the ratio of non-facecards to facecards from 1.5:1 to almost 1:1. I then will adjust my basic strategy accordingly...
My betting strategy is as follows: I bet 5 on my first hand then 15 regardless of whether I win or lose. If I win on 15 I move to 25, and then back to 5 after another win. If I lose on my 15 dollar bet, I play a variance on the martingale system in which I double my bet, but then add 10 on the first loss, and double that 10 on every subsequent loss. I do the same thing on my 25 dollar bet... This would mean the negative progression for each would be as follows: 15, 40, 100, 240, 500; 25, 60, 140, 320, 500. Even if my table max is higher I will never bet above 500. It isn't extremely common to go on losing streaks of longer than 5 in my experience...
In all the simulations I've been running I have NEVER lost money. My simulation bankroll is only 1,000, but I think live a 5,000 dollar bankroll would be ideal, so in order for this to REALLY kill you on a 5,000 bankroll, you would need to go on a losing streak of at least 15 for it to take a bite of 3,000 dollars... Simulate 10,000 hands and tell me how many times you'll go on that streak. Almost never, especially if you're adjusting strategy based on count.
I'm also thinking about tracking the 8s/9s so when I have a decent ratio of small to large cards, and I know that there are 6 of the 8s and 9s gone from the deck, it can give me some insight on how I should play a 14...
I'm just curious if people would do some simulating as well and tell me if they start getting the same results...
If you don't want to try the counting method at least try using the betting strategy and let me know what you think.
I'm trying to develop some strategies for what I normally play live, which is 5 dollar minimum 500 max, single deck, dealer hits on soft 17, insurance is offered on Ace only, you can double on any two cards, but you can't double after split, and you can only split same cards...
My counting strategy that I use works this way (note this is only to keep an idea of my ratio of big to little cards): I keep a count of every card that's been played, I.E. if there are 4 players, I automatically know there will initially be 10 cards in play, and it's easy to count when people start taking cards... I then keep a count of every 10 or higher card played, and keep the ratio of small to large cards in my mind so I can adjust my basic strategy. For example, if 20 cards are played and only 5 face cards come out, it reduces the ratio of non-facecards to facecards from 1.5:1 to almost 1:1. I then will adjust my basic strategy accordingly...
My betting strategy is as follows: I bet 5 on my first hand then 15 regardless of whether I win or lose. If I win on 15 I move to 25, and then back to 5 after another win. If I lose on my 15 dollar bet, I play a variance on the martingale system in which I double my bet, but then add 10 on the first loss, and double that 10 on every subsequent loss. I do the same thing on my 25 dollar bet... This would mean the negative progression for each would be as follows: 15, 40, 100, 240, 500; 25, 60, 140, 320, 500. Even if my table max is higher I will never bet above 500. It isn't extremely common to go on losing streaks of longer than 5 in my experience...
In all the simulations I've been running I have NEVER lost money. My simulation bankroll is only 1,000, but I think live a 5,000 dollar bankroll would be ideal, so in order for this to REALLY kill you on a 5,000 bankroll, you would need to go on a losing streak of at least 15 for it to take a bite of 3,000 dollars... Simulate 10,000 hands and tell me how many times you'll go on that streak. Almost never, especially if you're adjusting strategy based on count.
I'm also thinking about tracking the 8s/9s so when I have a decent ratio of small to large cards, and I know that there are 6 of the 8s and 9s gone from the deck, it can give me some insight on how I should play a 14...
I'm just curious if people would do some simulating as well and tell me if they start getting the same results...
If you don't want to try the counting method at least try using the betting strategy and let me know what you think.
