A. P. Rating System

[Stealth Bomber]

I have often wondered how I personally rate on some form of rating system in terms of all around ability in the business of pro bj.

Does anyone else ever try to rate their overall abilities as an A P and where they are on a scale from 1 - 10 or such as novice, intermediate, expert and world class?

Also, how does a player know where he/she actually is on this would-be scale? I think this is important to know so we don't end up with either a false sense of security or otherwise just the opposite. I think sometimes many of us need some reassurance of where we really stand. How do we gauge it? Sometimes I think I'm a novice and sometimes an expert. I've only met one other cc in all my playing days. I'm not sure how good he really is. It's just hard to be certain when you're out there all by you're little lonesome self. It would be nice to just really know how close or far we really are from being great.

Comments encouraged please.

Stealth

 

[learning to count]

LTC's rating system:

A$$hole tourist: Drunk, ignorant and bets five dollars to impress the hooker he just picked up. (No Ploppy jimmy I did not mean you!)

Ploppy: "I've been gambling for twenty years and no one ever splits tens! $h!T you won!" or "Who told you to ever hit 16 against 17 after the dealer has won seven times in a row" or "after you lose a bet double your next bet and cross your toes and hope for the positive flow".

Basic Strategy player/ploppy: "Hell yesterday I won six times in a row and I used the same progression. So why did I lose today?"

Beginning counter: "plus one,plus two,plus three, okay 3 divided into six decks or is it six decks divided by 3, aw forget it...what do you do at plus three true count when the dealers shows an ace....ugh?????????

Average counter: "Sir would you like a players card or how about a buffet comp to our five star buffet????"

Pro Counter: Sir you can play any other game in the casino but not Black Jack.

Advantage Player: Sir you have the right to remain silent, anything you say...........................................

 

[AlexD30]

Keep records of your play like: hours, hands, min/max bet or average bet

I would say this:
Keep records of your play like: hours, hands, min/max bet or average bet and results. Create a spreadsheet file with all this data and analyze it for at least 600 hours of play. That would be about 60,000 hands. After so many hands you should be able to overcome the house edge and show a profit if you are a accomplished player.

Why is that? .., because after so many hands if you play with a 1.25% edge your expectation is 60,000*1.25% = 750 average bets. Now, one standard deviation for 60,000 hands is 1.1*sqrt(60,000) = 245 and two standard deviations for the same number of hands is double of that or 2*245 = 490 average bets and the ultimate three standard deviations is 3*245 = 725. So, you can see that your expectation surpasses a two standard deviation that covers about 97% of your playing time and even surpasses a three standard deviations that is about 99.7% of all your playing time.

If your financial results are into the positive territory after 600 hours of quality blackjack then you can be certain that you are a world class player. If you cannot accomplish that then you need to take a serious look in what you are doing. If you play part time BJ and if you have access to Vegas games for weekends then you can have 600 hours in about a year.

I, for myself, can play in Vegas on every weekend starting from Friday night till Sunday evening for about 20 hours.
Four hours on Friday night from 8:00PM till 12:00AM. Another 8 hours on Saturday from 10:AM - 2:00PM and 6:00PM-10:00PM and the same for Sunday. So, I can play about 20 hours for weekend. I also fly over from LA into Vegas on Tuesday evening and play 5 hours, go to sleep there and fly back into LA on Wednesday early in the morning. This way I can put 100 hours a month and get into the long run in about 6 months or so, but I live 3 hours of driving from Vegas.

The bottom line is that you should be able to get into the long run in 600 hours and have a substantial profit from BJ.

AlexD30

 

[Rob McGarvey]

Nice break down LTC. BJ is the first level of Heaven, which can take you to around a 2% pos EV. There are two more levels so I have heard. ;> Tracking and Ace traking, HOLE CARD READING (for the recently deaf LVHCM), can take you into the 6% 10% levels. And beyond the quasars? I'm just Hubbling around! ;>

 

[SammyBoy]

I Feel Your Pain Bro!

I often wonder the same thing. I have not met a single counter and am petty much attacking this on my own. I have realized that I am not as good as I thought I was since learning AOII. I have been using Sage software and it will keep a running count as you play. I've noticed that I am making mistakes in addition or subtraction that I had no idea I was making. Now granted I am using a tougher count now than when I used Hi-Lo, but I'm sure I made some mistakes back then too. I have been practicing everyday for about 2 hours or more for nearly 2 weeks and I can really see the progress. The card values are now second nature to me and I'm able to do canceling of cards which really helps. I am always tough on myself when doing a self-evaluation, but right now I would have to rate myself a 6 on a scale of 1 to 10. I don't know if I have the mental ability to ever become a 10 (in my mind a ten would be someone that can memorize indices of 10 to -10 and carry on conversations and his act while keeping perfect count) but I can definitely make it to 8.5 or 9.

I really hope to play with you guys some day, that would be awesome!

 

[The Mayor]

Who says what?

There are many opportunities that arise that are > 10%. The simplest one to mention is coupons. But there are many, many more.

I think that the card-counting community is a bit myopic in this sense, but that is a good thing too. If all the card counters suddenly realized how easy and obvious these other opportunities are, they would surely be compromised. My recent podiums and polls have been an attempt to get people to think in these terms, but clearly I can't say more that this, and there are many who have asked me to not say even as much as I do.

--Mayor

 

[Rob McGarvey]

We said He

Coupies, yes. Greed can make people try to protect an advantage. I doubt anyone has a gun to your head mayor, and you just want to sit on the golden eggs yourself ;>

 

[SammyBoy]

Alex, Thanks for the Advice

I do keep a log as you mentioned. The one thing I regret not tracking when I started is dealer tokes. I have played 262.5 hours over the last year and am behind by $521.50. I have tipped dealers entirely too much, probably close to the amount I am behind by if not double that. About 6 months ago it became aparent that I was giving away my edge to the dealer and I have really cut the tokes down to almost nil. Also exactly 130 of those hours are at one particular casino where I have lost $2073. I'm not sure why I am such a big loser there, the rules are great and I play mostly SD (bj pays 3:2) with a 1 to 5 spread. Beginning with my next trip I will attempt to track dealer tokes.

 

[LV Bear]

Stop giving your money away to dealers

Beginning with my next trip I will attempt to track dealer tokes.

Better yet, STOP TOKING. Completely Entirely. Immediately. <u>Not one more cent.</u>

Unless it's an irreplaceable part of your act, the likelihood is you're throwing that money in the trash. Better to set aside any money that you're thinking of giving to dealers and donate it to charity instead.

 

[SammyBoy]

Great Point!

 

[learning to count]

Re: Stop giving your money away to dealers

Toking a dealer is like toking the devil every time you sin. You just shorten the time of your demise.

 

[Victoria]

a minor disagreement

Toking a little is something I do. I feel it is part cover for me and I like to get smiles from the dealers. I know it has nothing to do with the cards we get but I do think the profile says we do not toke. At $2 per hour by your calculations, you are far from a huge toker. I watch guys with one black in the circle and a green for the dealer all the time and wonder if they ever tried to add up those pure losses.
I might have 2 blacks out and two silver for the dealer sometimes, no big deal to me. I am not a pro, I like to win but I am also having fun.
Just my 2 silvers worth.

 

[learning to count]

Re: a minor disagreement

Ahhhh a lady! Vicky you do what ever you think is right. You are breath of fresh air to this site! We never toke due to the loss of earnings it can cost us. I guess we are greedy. The other reason is that dealers are not doing a service for us but rather for the Casinos. They may smile but believe me they will cut your throat if they had the chance. I dont personally buy into the gambling is entertainment and the dealer is the entertainer thing. Gambling is about taking a chance to win money. Card counting is about being able to win consistantly. When gamblers lose they fall back on "hey it was fun thats the cost of entertainment". You know what your doing Vicky and you understand the consequences. SO who am I to argue with a Lady! LTC JMHO

 

[AlexD30]

Tokes = ZERO - Do not toke!

Do not toke at all!
You do not have to toke any dealer whatsoever. Why are you wasting your EV on tokes? - I stop giving tips 20 years ago because I figure that is a waste and a drain to my income.

AlexD30

 

[Count Luckula]

Re: a minor disagreement

I have mixed feelings about tipping and do it differently under different situations. What do you all think?

If I'm in hit-and-run mode, I usually won't tip much, if at all. Maybe a little at the very end when I get up to leave, if I think the dealer is friendly and did a good job. One caveat though, is if I win a reasonably large amount, I will not tip over giving some marginal amount. How cheap and unploppy-like does it look if you are betting decent money, color up a nice profit, and then tip some silver or red?

However, if I'm at a place that I like and tend to spend more time in, I will be more liberal, especially if the dealer is friendly and/or recognizes me. I will generally try to tip small amounts regularly in winning sessions.

Note: This really only applies to medium green play and up. If we're talking red, you should not sacrifice any EV and should fly under the radar at all times. You need to build up the bankroll so you can move on to the fun stuff.

I generally disagree with viewing the casino personnel as the "enemy" and I think there is a lot to be gained by being at least being friendly. Now if they do not reciprocate (Chumash Mayor?), I agree that you should take them for everything that they're worth. On the otherhand, I've found that a dealer who likes you may tend to deal deeper in a hand-held game, or might even give you a hint when they peek under that ace, or make payout mistakes. All sorts of things can happen. True the eye can track your play, but in many casinos, this is usually done at the request of the floor. If you're looking for comps, the floor also does the rating. The bottom-line is you're friendly, they're friendly, and everybody has a good time. On the otherhand, you should never let down your guard and always assume that somebody upstairs is watching you!

I guess my viewpoint is different than a lot of people's here. I think making money is important, but so are longevity and having fun. Let me add that if you haven't read Burning the Tables, it's worth the time and the cost. Granted it is geared towards those w/ huge bankrolls (which I definitely don't have yet), it might give you a fresh perspective on AP.

Just my very long-winded 2 cents.

 

[Victoria]

Re: a minor disagreement

Just thought of something. I will toke silver or maybe one red and my bets are generally black. So if I were betting red and used the same kind of percentage, I would be putting out a little dime or worse, so playing red and toking just can not work unless perhaps you put a silver out there at $50 on a rare occassion. Just working the percentages through my mind here. A small toke and a big better does not give too much up, but the same toke to the smaller player is a mistake. Anyway, it is a personal thing if you understand what you are doing.

 

[learning to count]

....a major disagreement

This is interesting. When I was a beggining player I used to have the same sentiments. After playing with others who's talents are far above most players abilities. I had the realization about what we are facing out there. Card counting is tough. You have to play at a level that is mind boggling at times. When you hit the zen level of your talents then you will see why certain things are the way they are for this level of play. If you play as deadly as I have experienced and have seen from those who are in the know you will understand why they continually say DONT TIP. My only thought at this time is that those who still debate why you should tip are not playing at a this level. I have been there and its incredible. I have watched play unlike what you are experiencing. I have seen the "Beyond Couunting" in advantage play. Counters like Las Vegas Bear are far above 90% of the people who are on this site and he is probably in the ten percent of world advantage players out there who are wizards. I have been there and many of you have not. The Mayor and LVBear are experts. Thier abilities are incredible. This banter about tipping is just that; Useless ploppy nonsense. If you want to tip have at at it. If you want to excell and be a CARD COUNTER then listen to these men they are at the top of their game and believe me I have been there to see the Casino's demise.

 

[Radar]

Re: a minor disagreement

Have to agree, Victoria...a small toke ONCE IN AWHILE is good cover and may swing a small advantage your way from the dealer...putting out a greenie for the dealer with your black makes no sense; however...

Keep them small and far and few between.

 

[Radar]

Agree, in SMALL amounts, sparingly

I agree that it doesn't hurt in small amounts, infrequently. It is good for cover and good at having the house look upon you in a more favorable way...again, very sparingly, though.

 

[Count Luckula]

Re: ....a major disagreement

You know LTC, going back and reading my post, it doesn't sound the way I intended...I don't mean to suggest anyone ever SHOULD tip. At least don't ever expect to get anything out of it. I know it's a bad play to make in terms of EV and everything else. I didn't mean to imply that a tip would ever buy you anything, but rather that a friendly attitude might.
There seems to be a lot of animosity among AP's towards casinos, their employees, ploppies, etc. Maybe I'm naive and after playing for 20 more years, all I'll want is to take money from casinos, and hate everything else about them, but if the kid dealing me cards makes the effort to do a good job, and makes my time more enjoyable, I have no problem throwing a few bucks his/her way. Most of them wouldn't be able to spot an AP if you wrote it on your forehead. I'm advocating tipping for exceptional service, and for no other reason.
I can understand wanting to retain all your earnings if this is your profession, but how is tipping a dealer so different from tipping a valet or a bartender?

Wow, now I sound like a freakin' hippie.