A thought about hands played

[Dopple]

I would think a wonger that was keeping track of hands played should count all hand observed as hands played to keep the records straight. It just seems to make sense to me maybe I am wrong. As a wonger when watching the game you are being exposed to the same range of situations you would find yourself in playing all and you have the chance to get in at any time.

I just track by hour as a rec player and was just curious what the more dedicated players say.

Does this make sense?

 

[kewljason]

I would think a wonger that was keeping track of hands played should count all hand observed as hands played to keep the records straight. It just seems to make sense to me maybe I am wrong. As a wonger when watching the game you are being exposed to the same range of situations you would find yourself in playing all and you have the chance to get in at any time.

I just track by hour as a rec player and was just curious what the more dedicated players say.

Does this make sense?

It is an interesting topic. If you are comparing how to maximize use of time and/or profits during a certain period of time, yes you count everything hands played, hands seen, even dead (walking around) time.

I personally am only interested in my results and I can only make money when I play a hand, not watch, so I count hands played. I have tried keeping my results several differnt ways over the years. Hours, didn't work out to well, because as a wonger (I wong out early) I play many short sessions and so would have many small segments of time. 12 minutes here, 6 minutes there, 19 minutes over there, 4 minutes, ect. I then tried keeping track of shoes. That didn't work because all shoe are not equal. If I wong out after 2 hands because the count suddenly tanks early on, does that count as a whole shoe? In the end I decided the only thing relevant to my results were hands actually played, so I currently estimate hands played as my measuring stick. I am pretty sure few do it this way though. :laugh:

 

[21forme]

KJ - IMO, counting the # of hands played rather than hours "on the job" gives you an elevated rate of earnings. This is especially true when playing in an inefficient venue like LV< where it takes so long to get from place to place..

For example, suppose you start your day (not counting travel time to your first stop), play 30 minutes (let's say 50 hands) at MB and make $100. then, you spend 30 minutes getting to MGM, backcount a few shoes (another 30 minutes), play 60 minutes (100 hands) and make $150.

You've made $250 playing 150 hands, probably higher than your calculated EV, but just an example. As an hourly rate, counting play time only, it's $250/90 mins play. However, overall, it's $250 for 90 minutes play time (not bad...), but 150 minutes or "work time."

 

[blackjack avenger]

There is a Standard

Based on 100 hands either played or seen an hour. From this one can determine SCORE, NO, EV etc. and can easily compare actual results to simmed ones. It is also the convenient unit of time we often use for many things. One can compare their simmed and actual hourly ev to their job pay. One can also compare all the various rules and style of play one wishes to consider.

What Kewl does is just fine if it works for him, but I wonder how well his stats match up to sims or when comparing games played.
:joker::whip:

 

[kewljason]

KJ - IMO, counting the # of hands played rather than hours "on the job" gives you an elevated rate of earnings. This is especially true when playing in an inefficient venue like LV< where it takes so long to get from place to place..

For example, suppose you start your day (not counting travel time to your first stop), play 30 minutes (let's say 50 hands) at MB and make $100. then, you spend 30 minutes getting to MGM, backcount a few shoes (another 30 minutes), play 60 minutes (100 hands) and make $150.

You've made $250 playing 150 hands, probably higher than your calculated EV, but just an example. As an hourly rate, counting play time only, it's $250/90 mins play. However, overall, it's $250 for 90 minutes play time (not bad...), but 150 minutes or "work time."

All true, 21. But I said, if you are looking for an hourly rate for some sort of comparison, counting hands played won't work. I personally am not comparing anything, except maybe my results to my previous results, and so the only thing that matters to me is hands actually played. When I post my results in one of these year end type posts, I do make a rough translation of hands played into hours, because that seems to be the universal unit that everyone uses, but I do state that I spend probably double that amount of time when combining travel/scouting.

My thoughts on Vegas are almost opposite of yours. :laugh: Back east in AC, with only a handful of store that had playable games, I found myself spending way too much time traveling between venues. At one time I was playing three locations, Borgata, Resorts and Tropicana. No possible way to be efficent doing that. :laugh:

Vegas is much more efficient! That's the main reason I relocated! Locations on the strip are much closer together. Downtown even more so. Incidentally...30 minutes to get from MB to MGM. Am I using a walker? :laugh: I rarely criss cross back and forth the strip like that anyway. Crossing the strip is time consuming. I work up one side and down the other.

 

[21forme]

Well, maybe 30 minutes is a little bit of an exaggeration, but when the streets are crowded, it CAN take that long to get by all the casual strollers, "snappers" (porn card distributors), etc. When I'm going between MGM and MB, I usually duck into Excal. to scout for weak dealers. That adds about 5 minutes to my sojourn.

OTOH, to get from the mid or north BW to the Borg is a 5 minute drive. I presume you're jitneying it. Also, I play other games besides BJ in AC, so there are more houses available to play.

 

[kewljason]

Snappers hun? didn't even know they had a nickname. :laugh: Wondering what kind of rate of pay is involved and what training is required for that. Just in case my BJ career fizzles out. :laugh:

 

[Dopple]

The only concern I have with counting just the number of hands played is that no accounting is done for the luxury of having seen many rounds of play. I know you could not do a comparison with heads up play vs. wonging on a hands played basis as it would be biased to the favor of the wong numbers.

I think back counting is just fascinating because you get all the goods paraded in front of you for free. I suppose you pay with heat though.

 

[kewljason]

The only concern I have with counting just the number of hands played is that no accounting is done for the luxury of having seen many rounds of play. I know you could not do a comparison with heads up play vs. wonging on a hands played basis as it would be biased to the favor of the wong numbers.

I think back counting is just fascinating because you get all the goods paraded in front of you for free. I suppose you pay with heat though.

I don't back count and wong in on good counts, cherry picking the hands that I play, but rather just play off the top and wong out at a certain negative count rather than play through all negative counts. So I do not have the luxury of having only seen and not played many rounds, therefore no such bias. My results still reflect many rounds played at nuetral or slightly negative counts (above the wong out point). The only difference is that when you run a sim using the same methods, the sim doesn't have any down time between sessions and still assumes a 100 rounds per hour, where as in real life I have down time that may lessen the number of rounds. There are occasions that it works in my favor though. When playing in a large store with a number of pits, you can be out of the negative count game and sitting down at a new freshly shuffled table in a minute or two, actually playing the same number of hands or perhaps even more in the same hour, just playing fewer negative count hands. Admittedly these opportunities only happen in a few large stores. :sad:

 

[Dopple]

Speaking of the wong out if you dont mind I find it very hard to wong out at TC-2 because it can turn around so quick. How many hands can the big boys in Vegas and AC get away with sitting out before they pick up too much heat.

If I am facing negative EV I will sit out two or three but now I am thinking even more because if you are mid shoe or less into the 6D it can get real good fast.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Gotta Go

Speaking of the wong out if you dont mind I find it very hard to wong out at TC-2 because it can turn around so quick. How many hands can the big boys in Vegas and AC get away with sitting out before they pick up too much heat.

If I am facing negative EV I will sit out two or three but now I am thinking even more because if you are mid shoe or less into the 6D it can get real good fast.

By the time a shoe gets to -2tc one should probably be moving on. The problem is once a shoe gets to -2tc the shoe is most likely close to ending. As one gets closer and closer to the cut card the TC can turn very quickly, but one doesn't get to play many rounds because one is close to the end of the shoe.

If other players around one sit out frequently, then one can probably also at the appropriate count using civilian logic. If you are the only one doing it, and betting big enough you may get attention. Experience and paying attention to dealer, player, and pit reaction will help one hopefully realize what is best for their present situation.
:joker::whip:

 

[kewljason]

Speaking of the wong out if you dont mind I find it very hard to wong out at TC-2 because it can turn around so quick. How many hands can the big boys in Vegas and AC get away with sitting out before they pick up too much heat.

If I am facing negative EV I will sit out two or three but now I am thinking even more because if you are mid shoe or less into the 6D it can get real good fast.

I agree with BJ avenger, -2 is time to move on. It's actually about -1.5 for me. While it is true that the count can be more volatile towards the end of the shoe when it takes fewer small cards to turn it around, how much is it really going to turn around? Maybe get back to even? Maybe a tc of +1 which makes it about an even game, on a rare occasion to +2 where you have a slight advantage and then you play a hand a that slight advantage and the shoe ends. The count isn't going to turn all the way around to a tc of +4 or +5 where you can get our max bet out. At least very rarely will it.
And isn't that what it's all about? When you initially sit down at the start of the shoe you are hoping to get to a max bet count (+4 for me) not just a slightly positive count.

 

[Dopple]

Thanks Jason you feedback helps. I thought your max was a TC3? Maybe I read it wrong or it was a typo. Whats your read on TC3, maybe 6-8 units vs. 12 at TC4?

 

[kewljason]

Thanks Jason you feedback helps. I thought your max was a TC3? Maybe I read it wrong or it was a typo. Whats your read on TC3, maybe 6-8 units vs. 12 at TC4?

That's going to depend on what your BR is, what games you are playing and what kind of RoR you are comfortable with. I wager 12 units @+3 and my max bet 16 @ +4. TC +3 is the point that I make my biggest jump in wager and is my 'point of no return'. Once I hit that point and throw out my 12 unit wager, I am leaving at the shuffle, no matter where the count goes from here.

 

[Dopple]

Thanks again Jason. I admire your skill.

 

[kewljason]

Thanks again Jason. I admire your skill.

Well thanx, but I don't think there is that much skill to admire. My AP techniques are very elementary, mostly consisting of straight counting, with occasional side bet and hole carding opportunities. I don't seek out hole carding opportunities as I enjoy attempting to beat the game using the information that I was intended to have and the dealer hole card is not part of that information. But...when a dealer is flashing, I am not going to pretend that I didn't see it either. :laugh: That's not a knock on you hole carding specialists. It's not illegal or anything and I don't have a problem with you guys using what ever method available. I just haven't gone that route....yet!