ace-5, ace front count, or SC

tallmanvegas

Well-Known Member
I am currently a decent basic strategy player but am looking into taking my game to the next level. I was considering either practicing and utilizing the ace-5 count, ace front count, or Speed Count. Of these, what would give me my best mathematical advantage? Is there another strategy with ease of use besides these that are better? thank you
Tall man
 

rrwoods

Well-Known Member
Shoe or pitch?

I love me some High Low for shoe games. Simple, effective. Others have found success with KO or Red Seven, or possibly TKO.

If you're playing pitch I've got no clue but plenty of people here do :)
 
tallmanvegas said:
I am currently a decent basic strategy player but am looking into taking my game to the next level. I was considering either practicing and utilizing the ace-5 count, ace front count, or Speed Count. Of these, what would give me my best mathematical advantage? Is there another strategy with ease of use besides these that are better? thank you
Tall man
None of the above. Use High-Low or KO.
 

zengrifter

Banned
tallmanvegas said:
Im actually now looking into the color of blackjack system.
What did you mean by "decent BS player"?
Did you mean that you don't have BS down cold, or you do? zg
 

tallmanvegas

Well-Known Member
re:

Yes, im a strict basic strategy player, with low bet spreads 1-3, playing purples, set goal of 50% ROI. Progressive player, (i know, i know) Depending on how its going and as long as im up min 1k. Looking to take my game to next level as Im not going to win in the long run
 

zengrifter

Banned
tallmanvegas said:
Yes, im a strict basic strategy player, with low bet spreads 1-3, playing purples, set goal of 50% ROI. Progressive player, (i know, i know) Depending on how its going and as long as im up min 1k. Looking to take my game to next level as Im not going to win in the long run
"Strict BS"... but when you said "decent BS" that seemed to imply that you were prone to small minor occasional errors? "Decent" or "Strict" BS? zg
 

tallmanvegas

Well-Known Member
Ok, i would say more like decent (90%). I want to take my game to next level with advantage play. Im not looking for the most powerful system, just something in which i have an edge. I would rather play a perfect weak system than a powerful system with mistakes
tall man
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
tallmanvegas said:
Strick Basic Strategy?? Ok, i would say more like decent (90%). I want to take my game to next level with advantage play. Im not looking for the most powerful system, just something in which i have an edge. I would rather play a perfect weak system than a powerful system with mistakes
tall man
Thing number one: Get all your basic strategy down cold! Your game needs this like you need breathing!

Next: You sound, as many avid blackjack players I know, as though you don't care much for the idea of "plus/minus" card counting -- or don't feel up to it. In that case, I believe your next step is to learn which proper splits have a negative EV and which improper doubles have a positive EV. Now, be ready and willing to jump in on all other players' positive EV doubles for less, whether they be proper basic strategy doubles or not. One particular ethnic group is notorious for making doubles for less, many of them not proper BS. When such a player sits down at your table, have some chips ready for action before the dealer deals his/her card. With regard to your own negative EV splits, it's a personal moral matter whether you want to sell half of them off to the player next to you, but there are plenty of takers out there.

After that: The flat out easiest way to get a read on a shoe (6 dk.) is to simply add up the Aces/10's that have been dealt out when there are one inch of cards in the discard tray. With standard Bee decks, this will be 88 cards. A normal total at this point would be 34 Ace/10's. You need 30 or less to have a significant advantage on that remaining shoe (+1.4 TC).
It's best if you're doing this from the aisle, but if you're seated and already playing, your "one inch tally" will tell you when to keep your bet low the rest of the way (31-to-36), when to increase it the rest of the way (30 or less) and when to leave the table (37 or higher).
It's true, unbeknownst to you, a "good" count could turn bad later on and a "bad" count could turn good. But overall, you'll be playing with the composition of cards that were indicated by your "front one inch count". This "amateur" counting method requires no plus/minusing, nor maintaining of a count throughout the entire shoe.

It's absolutely imperative that you leave the table on those "37+" front count tallies. You said you play "purples", so you may not be all that free to walk around and find tables that have just accrued a "30-" one inch count after you've bailed out of a "bad" table -- but this is what you really need to be doing. In fact, your net edge depends upon it! You need to trade in negative shoes for positive ones. You also need to drop your base bet in size so that you have a 5-to-1 spread working. All those one unit bets represent lost money, so keep them down. Remember this axiom -- "Your desire to win must be stronger than your desire to play".
WARNING: Be advised that this is a very marginal way to gain a very marginal edge, and if you compromise almost any part the system -- no more edge! Also, be ready for mercilessly volatile swings. Twelve of your max bets are needed for a three or four hour outing. Welcome to the cruel and uncertain world of gambling for profit.

You'll fool around with these things for a while, then decide that attempted advantage play is just not for you -- or you'll become enthralled with it and want to learn a "real" system. But whichever you do, don't go in over your head. You can get buried with a tiny edge almost as easily as you can with a small disadvantage.
 
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aslan

Well-Known Member
Renzey said:
...You can get buried with a tiny edge almost as easily as you can with a small disadvantage. [boldface added]
You can say that again! Even a 2% edge can get you buried up to your eyeballs!
 

tallmanvegas

Well-Known Member
Thank you for your experienced suggestions. Heading out to Vegas for the weekend, looking for a successful trip
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
tallmanvegas said:
Thank you for your experienced suggestions. Heading out to Vegas for the weekend, looking for a successful trip
I'm heading out to Vegas, too, tallman, on the 11th.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
tallmanvegas said:
Aslan, how did you do in vegas
I was very busy doing non-gambling-related things this trip, but I did manage to get in 10 hours spread out over several short sessions. Variance was with me, and I won $1,100.
 

blackriver

Well-Known Member
Im assuming your playing shoe games? If i was to boil it down for a ploppy id say can you count how many cards were dealt in a round? just keep totalling them up, except when you see an ace subtract 12 (or add one AND subtract 13). if your total gets above 15 x decks left raise your bets. keep raising it another unit for every 15 points higher you running "total" is above 15xdecks. (If your playing single or double deck instead of 15*decks left, do 7x*halfdecks left or 4*quarterdecks respectively for double and single deck)


This is conservatoive enough that even an overly eager ploppy who rounds down the number of decks left would still be +EV

To see how this works imagine u go through 52 cards of a 6 deck shoe w/o an ace. thsi would bean there is almost(4/5ths of) 1 extra ace per deck left in the shoe. so now your if the chances of your first card being an ace have increased by 4/(52x5) = 1/65, an event is worth ~50% ev. leaving you with a 50%/65 ~1% edge




cliff notes:
count all nonaces as +1
count all aces -12

if total > decksleft*15 double your bet
add another unit for every 15 points the total goes above decksleft*15
 
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Renzey

Well-Known Member
blackriver said:
Im assuming your playing shoe games? If i was to boil it down for a ploppy id say can you count how many cards were dealt in a round? just keep totalling them up, except when you see an ace subtract 12 (or add one AND subtract 13). if your total gets above 15 x decks left raise your bets.
I've found in my 1 table seminars that this kind of thing is just way too much work for a ploppy. Maintaining track of something all the way thru a shoe is more than they want to do -- ruins their enjoyment. Not gonna do it.

Best I could come up with beyond basic strategy for the avid ploppy was dedicated hand interaction and a "shoe casing" evaluation taken at a relatively early point that indicates, "stay - leave - increase" (based on the number of Ace/10's dealt up to that point).
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
tallmanvegas said:
Is it possible to improve the accuracy by not waiting thru 2 decks and track just 1
The problem with that is, after the first deck has been dealt, only 1-in-13 shoes will have gone positive enough to raise your bets. But after 2 decks, 1-in-5 will.

You could use trigger numbers for 1, for 1.5 and 2 decks, but you really should stick with it thru the first two decks -- or at least 88 cards (one inch of cards in the discard tray). Those qualifying Ace/10 counts for raising your bet would be:
1 deck.......15 (or lower)
1.5 dks......26
88 cards....30
2 decks.....36

When you get a qualifying count, remember to:
double 9 against a 2
double 11 against an Ace
stand 16 against a 10
double Ace/7 agaiinst 2
double Ace/8 against 5 or 6

Insurance comes at 32 on the 2 deck mark, and at 25 on the 1 inch mark. Both will be rare, and ain't gonna happen earlier.

If interested, I could post "wongout" counts for the different depths. But only 1 deck in, it would be more of a "I'm gonna sit out a few hands" type thing, since there's plenty of space for it to improve.
 
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