Ace five expectations

[hellfire]

Hi!

Newbie here. I've been researching various counting techniques and from what I've read the Ace-Five technique, while easy to learn, only can get you to break even, or only a very slight edge over the house. However, I read over at Wizard of Odds that an ace five simulation was run at a 1-32 spread with standard AC rules (6 deck shoe, stand on S17, etc.) that gave a 0.57% player edge with an average bet size of 7.1. So, if that is the case, with say a $20,000 bankroll, playing a $10 unit and the above 1-32 spread, expected winnings should be around $20 per hour (if my calculations are correct). That doesnt sound bad at all. So why is it that people say that ace five is played for "comps"? Is it that the risk of ruin is too high because of the 1-32 spread (and what would the RoR be approximately for a $20,000 bankroll with $10 unit). Or is it that the wizard's simulation is not correct? Or are my calculations wrong? Reason I ask is that I've also read that the casino pit bosses and security are looking for the traditional Hi-Lo or KO counting patterns, and not so much the ace five, so its a good way to disguise counting. And to be honest I'm really afraid of getting caught.

Anyway, thanks in advance for any advice!

Hellfire

 

[Deathclutch]

Hi!

Newbie here. I've been researching various counting techniques and from what I've read the Ace-Five technique, while easy to learn, only can get you to break even, or only a very slight edge over the house. However, I read over at Wizard of Odds that an ace five simulation was run at a 1-32 spread with standard AC rules (6 deck shoe, stand on S17, etc.) that gave a 0.57% player edge with an average bet size of 7.1. So, if that is the case, with say a $20,000 bankroll, playing a $10 unit and the above 1-32 spread, expected winnings should be around $20 per hour (if my calculations are correct). That doesnt sound bad at all. So why is it that people say that ace five is played for "comps"? Is it that the risk of ruin is too high because of the 1-32 spread (and what would the RoR be approximately for a $20,000 bankroll with $10 unit). Or is it that the wizard's simulation is not correct? Or are my calculations wrong? Reason I ask is that I've also read that the casino pit bosses and security are looking for the traditional Hi-Lo or KO counting patterns, and not so much the ace five, so its a good way to disguise counting. And to be honest I'm really afraid of getting caught.

Anyway, thanks in advance for any advice!

Hellfire

Because it will be very difficult to get away with a 1-32 spread, and using this won't hide the fact you're counting. The pit crews don't count along, they watch your bet change from $20 to $640 and know what's going on. In essence you make it much easier to spot exactly what you're trying to hide.

 

[hellfire]

Thanks! I looked again at a smaller spread and according to the simulation a 1-16 spread has a lower edge (0.45%) and a much lower average bet size, and so it gives less than $10/hr expected winnings. Now I see why its not worth it. But what if went up to a $25 unit with a 1-16 spread? That gets back to around $20/hr. Is that spread still too much to not be noticed ($25-$400)? Or is my risk or ruin for $25 unit and over $100 average bet then too high for a $20000 bankroll?

 

[Deathclutch]

Thanks! I looked again at a smaller spread and according to the simulation a 1-16 spread has a lower edge (0.45%) and a much lower average bet size, and so it gives less than $10/hr expected winnings. Now I see why its not worth it. But what if went up to a $25 unit with a 1-16 spread? That gets back to around $20/hr. Is that spread still too much to not be noticed ($25-$400)? Or is my risk or ruin for $25 unit and over $100 average bet then too high for a $20000 bankroll?

To be honest, I'm not sure what the ROR is for that (depends on your game), but a 1-16 spread is much more manageable to play. Still pretty big, but find the right place and you could definitely get away with that. What sort of game are you planning on playing? Number of decks, rules, etc . . .

 

[Bondy3]

1:16 is very doable, lately I have been doing a 1:15 spread using hi-lo,

just keep in mind that with 20$ units and a $20k bankroll your RoR is about 1% if you do a 1:16 spread, not that much but its still there

 

[hellfire]

To be honest, I'm not sure what the ROR is for that (depends on your game), but a 1-16 spread is much more manageable to play. Still pretty big, but find the right place and you could definitely get away with that. What sort of game are you planning on playing? Number of decks, rules, etc . . .

liberal AC rules...6 shoe deck, stand S17, doubles on everything, etc. do you think I could get away with that spread in AC on a $25 table?

 

[hellfire]

1:16 is very doable, lately I have been doing a 1:15 spread using hi-lo,

just keep in mind that with 20$ units and a $20k bankroll your RoR is about 1% if you do a 1:16 spread, not that much but its still there

1% is OK I think. Its called gambling for a reason, right? :grin:

 

[assume_R]

I've also read that the casino pit bosses and security are looking for the traditional Hi-Lo or KO counting patterns, and not so much the ace five, so its a good way to disguise counting.

Well, while all the systems will indeed have differences, as far as I understand it they should all say you have an advantage at reasonably similar times. So if 4 people were at the table, 1 playing HiLo, 1 playing KO, 1 playing Ace-5, and 1 playing Zen, would all presumably raise their bets at similar times. Their playing decisions would be slightly different, and different systems are more or less accurate for different decisions, but the optimal betting patterns should at least be pretty similar.

If the Ace 5 system doesn't say you have a positive EV the same times that HiLo or KO does, there could be something wrong there.

I admit I'm not too familiar with the Ace 5 system, so perhaps I'm misunderstanding something... or perhaps I'm misunderstanding your post.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Well, while all the systems will indeed have differences, as far as I understand it they should all say you have an advantage at reasonably similar times. So if 4 people were at the table, 1 playing HiLo, 1 playing KO, 1 playing Ace-5, and 1 playing Zen, would all presumably raise their bets at similar times. Their playing decisions would be slightly different, and different systems are more or less accurate for different decisions, but the optimal betting patterns should at least be pretty similar.

If the Ace 5 system doesn't say you have a positive EV the same times that HiLo or KO does, there could be something wrong there.

I admit I'm not too familiar with the Ace 5 system, so perhaps I'm misunderstanding something... or perhaps I'm misunderstanding your post.

The Ace-5 count is an extremely weak count. If you wish to count for profit, use a better system. If you are playing for fun, this might be ok, but as others have mentioned, the bet spread may get you barred (even with such a small advantage). The count system only counts the two cards, and there is a decent chance that with a pit boss watching, cards that would call for an increase/decrease in bet size for more typical systems would not come out for the Ace-5 count. If the casino is smart (which is not likely), they will not be very worried about your play.

 

[hellfire]

Thanks for all the responses. So as I understand, the wide bet spread for ace five would more than likely set off more red flags than if I used Hi-Lo. The next question then is, if I played Hi-Lo with a $25 unit and a 1-15 spread, what kind of heat should I expect from the casino? Again, planning on playing in AC.

 

[Renzey]

So if 4 people were at the table, 1 playing HiLo, 1 playing KO, 1 playing Ace-5, and 1 playing Zen, would all presumably raise their bets at similar times. The optimal betting patterns should at least be pretty similar.

If the card tags are quite different, then indeed there will be differences in the betting patterns. Take the following card distribution using Zen, Hi Opt I and Ace/5.

2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 - A - 4 - 5 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 10 - 2 - 7 - A

Zen has the RC at +8, and needs to be comparatively calibrated down to +5
Hi Opt has it at +3
Ace/5 has it at -1

Who's right? Zen's BC is 96%, Hi Opt's is 88% and Ace/5 is 54%. Basically, Zen will be wrong about 4% of the time, Hi Opt blows 12% and Ace/5 will be wrong about 46% of the time.

 

[zengrifter]

If the card tags are quite different, then indeed there will be differences in the betting patterns. Take the following card distribution using Zen, Hi Opt I and Ace/5.

2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 - A - 4 - 5 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 10 - 2 - 7 - A

Zen has the RC at +8, and needs to be comparatively calibrated down to +5
Hi Opt has it at +3
Ace/5 has it at -1

Who's right? Zen's BC is 96%, Hi Opt's is 88% and Ace/5 is 54%. Basically, Zen will be wrong about 4% of the time, Hi Opt blows 12% and Ace/5 will be wrong about 46% of the time.

I used to play combined BR on occasion with a friend who used
RAPC'71 and sometimes our counts would be remarkably different. zg

 

[assume_R]

If the card tags are quite different, then indeed there will be differences in the betting patterns. Take the following card distribution using Zen, Hi Opt I and Ace/5.

2 - 4 - 6 - 8 - 10 - A - 4 - 5 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 10 - 2 - 7 - A

Zen has the RC at +8, and needs to be comparatively calibrated down to +5
Hi Opt has it at +3
Ace/5 has it at -1

Who's right? Zen's BC is 96%, Hi Opt's is 88% and Ace/5 is 54%. Basically, Zen will be wrong about 4% of the time, Hi Opt blows 12% and Ace/5 will be wrong about 46% of the time.

I mean, regarding betting decisions, whichever count is closest to the EOR would be the most accurate, would it not? Doesn't qfit's software tell you somewhere how accurate a count's TC is to the actual advantage?

While indeed, ZG, different counting systems' counts could be different, isn't there a way to mathematically define which count is more accurate regarding your calculated EV vs. your count's presumed EV?

 

[shadroch]

Why not use $300 of your $20,000 BR and fly someplace with good games?