ace tracking seems dangerous?

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by andrew999, Jun 21, 2006.

  1. andrew999

    andrew999 Member

    If you were playing with a few other players and you bet big thinking an ace was coming out and the guy sitting to your right got it (or even worse the dealer) you are screwed. How can you be sure exactly when it comes out?
  2. Sonny

    Sonny Well-Known Member

    Yup. :(

    That’s one of the things that makes tracking and sequencing so dangerous. The biggest problem is when novice players try to use advanced techniques like these. They often end up making mistakes or not doing enough research and betting big when there are no aces to be found.

    However, keep in mind that the ace is worth much more to the player than the dealer. An ace gives the player over a 50% advantage while the dealer only gets about a 10% advantage of each bet. It is therefore very advantageous to raise your bet even if you think the dealer might get the ace because it will not hurt you nearly as much as it helps you.

    You don’t. You might know that the ace you are tracking will come out in the next 9 cards (or however many cards you have calculated). You can then spread to multiple hands in order to increase your chances of getting it. Other times you will expect the ace to be the 9th card (or whatever) but you know that you might be off by 2 cards in either direction. In that case you could still try to steer the ace to your spot(s) and away from the dealer.

    In short, anytime that you know an ace has more than a 1 in 13 chance of appearing you are at an advantage. The more accurate players will get a bigger advantage and suffer less fluctuations than the novice players.

  3. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    I think the dealer gets closer to 30%. Anyone know if I'm mistaken? zg
  4. williamsmith

    williamsmith New Member

    However, keep in mind that the ace is worth much more to the player than the dealer. An ace gives the player over a 50% advantage while the dealer only gets about a 10% advantage of each bet. It is therefore very advantageous to raise your bet even if you think the dealer might get the ace because it will not hurt you nearly as much as it helps you.
  5. Percy

    Percy Well-Known Member

    I remember Snyder saying it was about 32%. Presumbaly the cost depends quite a lot on whether the casino offers insurance. I imagine surrender will also play quite a big part.
  6. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    An A to the Dealer is More Then a Tithe?

    I think a dealer advantage of 10% with an A is to low. If a dealer gets an A then there are 4 out of 13 suits that can give the dealer a bj; an almost certain win; which will happen about a third of the time. The A9 to the dealer is also a very strong hand. Finally, the dealer showing an A up will cause a lot of breaking hands from players. So it appears the dealer getting an A can be about a 30% advantage.:joker::whip:
  7. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    Not So Sure

    Wouldn't the above statement mean if you see a 5 at the beginning of a shoe you would have an advantage? I don't think this is so.

    casino or player, which is which?
  8. One factor a lot of people miss in ace tracking is considering your advantage when you don't get an ace.

    You're about to get your first card, the dealer looks at it first and tells you "This card is not an ace." What is your advantage for that hand?
  9. Sucker

    Sucker Well-Known Member

    Probably somewhere around negative 4-5%. But what you're saying is rather misleading; because it doesn't apply to ace tracking any more than it does to ANY hand of blackjack. If you're tracking and you MISS the ace, you might get an ace anyway; you just won't get THAT ace.

    This is like asking "If I double on 11 against a ten, how can I be sure I'll get a ten?"
    You CAN'T be sure, of COURSE. As in most forms of AP, you're playing the odds. And with ace tracking, some DAM GOOD odds; I might say!

    The generally accepted method of ace tracking that's employed by the pros is to play as many hands as possible, known as "protection" hands; in order to minimize the chances of the dealer getting it.

    Depending upon the dealer and the house shuffle, the experienced tracker can assign to every spot on the table the probabilities of getting the ace, with a great degree of accuracy. For example, the thought process will go something like this: The pro will say to himself something like "The chance of the ace coming on my 1st hand is 50%, the chance of it being on the 2nd hand is 20%, on the 3rd hand 10%, the chance of dealer getting it is 5%; and the chance of it not showing up at ALL is about 15%". He will then quickly crunch those numbers in his head & bet each hand accordingly.
  10. Sonny

    Sonny Well-Known Member

    Watching the dealer burn a 5 does give you an advantage because you are at less of a disadvantage. It may not give you an edge over the house, but you have more of an advantage than you did before the card was burned. You will win more by losing less.

    Although my statement is still incorrect since burning a ten will increase the chances of getting an ace but it will also put the player at a greater disadvantage...if he decides to play. I should rephrase that sentence to say "In general, knowing an ace has more than a 1 in 13 chance of appearing gives you an advantage." It seems my communication skills we a bit more ragged four years ago.

    It's a trick question. Never trust a dealer's opinion. :p

  11. Ah, not quite! That's a very common belief though. If you miss that ace, you not only won't get that ace, but unless there is another key present you have a severely degraded chance of getting any of the other aces.

    Let's say you are tracking aces in a 8D game with 75% pen. 8 of the 32 aces are untracked because they were behind the cut card, I call them stray aces. Then you're going to have a few more stray aces due to sequences getting stepped on one way or another. Those strays are the only "other" aces you have a chance of getting. Thus when you are tracking your calculated advantage on any hand where there are no keys, a false key, or where you just plain miss the ace is much more negative than a simple Basic Strategy hand.

    Cross-check: when you do your spreadsheets or whatever you do for sequencing, add up the calculated advantages of all the hands in a shoe with and without key cards being shown, and for all positions on the table. They had all better add up to the house edge with Basic Strategy.
  12. nottooshabby

    nottooshabby Well-Known Member

    Player advantage when the dealer exposes an Ace is -36%
  13. Sucker

    Sucker Well-Known Member

    You are absolutely correct, which is why I said that it's RATHER misleading, instead of TOTALLY misleading. And this statement is ESPECIALLY true in single deck, where if you miss your ace you only have a one in seventeen chance of getting a random ace, rather than one in thirteen.

    BTW; even the best ace tracker in the world couldn't possibly track 24 out of 32 aces, without the aid of a computer or some other device. The best I've ever seen or even HEARD of is someone who can consistently do five or maybe six per shoe. Someone who can do three per shoe is considered to be exceptional.
  14. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    This may be a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway.

    Let's say you are tracking the number of aces played. You are playing 6 deck, and two decks have been dealt. You have only seen one ace. That means, if my math is correct, that you have an 11% chance of getting an ace on your first card, and and even greater chance because you are getting two cards. 11% is better than one in nine cards, and two chances make it even better. Should you treat this situation as if you knew an ace was coming in the next nine cards? What should your bet be in a $25 minimum game?
  15. Pro21

    Pro21 Well-Known Member

    When Al Francesco did the chat here he said that he was doing 8-12 per shoe, and he is in his 70s.
  16. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member


    On average you have almost a TC2 so would play accordingly
  17. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    How would knowing you have a one in nine chance of getting an ace differ from knowing that one of the next nine cards is an ace?
  18. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    Disadvantage = Advantage = Casino Profits?

    I think it can be a bit confusing to call less of a disadvantage an advantage. This would mean one could choose between 2 negative expectation games but because one is less negative one could play it because they have an advantage.

    casino & player
  19. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    Grab This Pebble From My Hand

    Yin & Yang
    I don't see a difference

    April Fool's
    There is a difference
    Depends on the dealers chances of receiving the A. In the second example even though 1 in 9 is an A the dealer could have a better chance of receiving it.

    Looking deeper at your example:
    In your example if you have 7 excess A's in the remaining 4 decks they would have in a sense displaced 7 cards you have counted. Now most of those should be positive, perhaps a neutral and even another negateve probably a 10, so the TC may be closer to tc1.5 then tc2 on average.

    This shows the potential problem with just counting A's. If a bunch of 10s left the shoe also you would be at a disadvantage even with excess As.

    casino or player:joker::whip:
  20. Oh there are ways!

    For one, you can do single-key, but unless you have a really easy (nonexistent) shuffle that's not worth much in 8D.

    Another way to retain a lot of double keys is to only select the ones that are the same suit. So instead of key sequences like 6S4H, JH9C, TC4D... you have 45S, 33D, 3JH, 76C, 29H, 7QD... you get on the average around 6 keys like that. Now when you play bridge, the suits have a natural order: S,H,D,C. So I would visualize those keys as:

    3J 29
    33 7Q

    with no need to think about the suits when they are in that order.

    The thing I'm not good at is recording keys from the current shoe while playing back the keys from the last shoe. That's where a partner comes in handy, one records while the other plays back, switching every shoe.

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