Actual results versus EV?
- Thread starter bj2007
- Start date
SilentBob420BMFJ
Banned
LIFETIME EV probably about -.43%, and my actual EV is probably like -.1%.. in $, im down about $300, when i should be down probably a grand.. i just got into card counting tho, so if you just want to know that, im not sure what my EV is, but its positive, and im down $300 playing only positive counts, flat betting $10, and using a few indexes, so, in my 150+ hours of playing $3 blackjack AND 9/6 jacks+ video poker, i broke even, and in my mere 10 hours of counting cards, i lost $300
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I think you are misunderstanding my question. I'm not asking for help inKasi said:
calculating my own EV(you can choose whether to trust me or not in my own EV estimate)
I'm more interested in some of the regular poster's earnings from blackjack just out of the sake of curiosity.
zengrifter
Banned
Tell us more - what is...zerodegre said:
Your BR size (when you started)?
Your unit size (when you started)?
Your bet spread and max-bet size (when you started)?
# decks and penetration you've mostly played?
Thanks! zg
No big deal but stating actual earnings in dollars over "5 months" vs expected earnings in dollars, even assuming such expected earnings is correct, which I did, is pretty much meaningless. At least to me.bj2007 said:
More meaningful to me might be how many hands or hours you played at what spread with with what expected units gain per hour.
I thought you were more interested in counter's results versus expected results in terms of the liklihood of exceeding expected results by some margin over so many hands rather than how many absolute dollars they may actually have won.
How likely do u think it is that u won 6 times your EV in 5 months given how much u may have played?
If I said I had exactly the same results in dollars that u had with the same dollar EV but it turned out I only played 1000 hands in 5 months and u played 10000 hands, what would that mean to you?
Maybe my bankroll and spread were 10 times what yours was and that's why the results in dollars are the same even though I played only 1000 hands.
Hopefully, you won't draw the conclusion, should all a counter may say is "I won $700 in 5 months vs an EV of $350", that he is some way a less successful counter or even a less-lucky counter than you are.
I know probabilities as well as the next guy. I could be down 1600 just as easily as up 1900. I didn't mean to come across as gloating. I've only been counting 5 months, I know I can improve a tonne('ton' for you Americans). I guess I should have addressed my question more like "how much money has everyone made from counting." To appease Kasi-and I guess others(Cause nobody answered my question)-here's some additional info:
I usually play DD with below average rules and above average penetration,
spreading 5-40. Sometimes I play 6d 'play all' with decent rules and penetration. I figured the combination of the 2 would net about $5/hour. I've played 70 hours.
I usually play DD with below average rules and above average penetration,
spreading 5-40. Sometimes I play 6d 'play all' with decent rules and penetration. I figured the combination of the 2 would net about $5/hour. I've played 70 hours.
Well that's a whole different question than analyzing act vs expected resultsbj2007 said:
You don't have to appease me and I didn't mean to make you feel that way.
And I never thought you were gloating. Although, for various reasons, my guess would be that you think you were luckier than you actually were. Take no offense, it's just a guess.
But, should you choose to ever re-visit your original question, and I think it's a good one, and one that is not at all easy to answer, that's fine too.