Advice needed on BANK ROLL

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Anthony

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
To whom it may concern.

Me and my cousin have been studying the game of single deck 21. We count the 3-6's versus 10's. It's amazing how well it works and how much better a player you become just by following some simple rules and spreads. We've come a long way in the game of 21. In the begginning we made the mistakes of betting too much because the count was high, and it's taken some time and some losses that we've eventually learned about money managment. Eventhough counting cards in theory is easy, but it takes a lot of practice and hours at the table learning everyday we play. We live in the town where you can get the mash potatos and gravy. i.e. single deck 21-not 6-5 and not sf 21. Real single deck 21.

My question is, and I believe it's right (the books) because I really believe in the books I read. Blackbelt in Blackjack. However, they talk of having a bankroll of 2000 dollars to win 20 bucks? I don't understand. We may go with 500 and win most of the time; however, it may only be 50-200. We don't go for the throat because of the houses we play at.

Basically, if you don't have at least 2,500 or more. We shouldn't even bother playing? It seems like you have to be rich just to play?

P.s. We play 3-5 minimums
 
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Shaggy18vw

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Bankroll requirements

When the books say you need a very large bankroll, they are primarily talking about a bankroll that is not replenishable. If your only source of income was blackjack then those very high bankroll requirements are exactly what is necessary to withstand the bumps in the road. If you and your cousin have jobs, and can add money to your bankroll as needed, then the simple formulas in the books don't really pertain to your situation. If you go broke, you can just take some time off until you have the money again.

Not to say that you don't need a large bankroll to play blackjack, just you don't need a lifetime bank if you are not playing full time.
 
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phantom007

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
Betting TOO MUCH when the Count is HIGH???

In your post you stated something to the effect of "overcoming the problem of betting too much when the count is HIGH"......providing your B/R and Casino allows same, this bet should be TABLE MAX.

Casino Veritie' software tells me that I need #1440 UNITS to play "my" game at "my" spread, and to have less than a 1% chance of going broke BEFORE I double my money.

Bryce Carlson, in Blackjack for Blood, calculates that one should have available #125 MAX-Bets to accomplish the same goal.

Sounds like you and your "cousin" have a sweet deal (no pun directly intended) close to home. I would suggest that you "low-spread" this SD opportunity, like 2;1 and less......learn as many of the Indicies as you can, both Pos. and Neg., and slowly Grind, Grind, Grind.

Hope this info. helps.

phantom007.
 
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Anthony

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Re; Phantom

If I'm sitting at the table and it's SD and the counts plus six and I have $500.00 in front of me and the max bet is 200. Am I suppose to bet almost half of my bankroll? I've done that before and after I lost 19-20, it's back to the grind. Were you talking about a spread of 2-1? How can you win money with that? We generally go from 1-4 units. I'm going to play today and when the counts high lets see what happens!!!

Take it Easy
Anthony
 
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stainless steel rat

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
betting...

No you should not bet 1/2 your bankroll. If you have a program like CVBJ, it will let you calculate your ROR for a particular bankroll size... Or if you have CVCX you can open a canned sim and set your bankroll and betting scheme and see what your ROR is for that scheme. The general idea is to bet .75 * your advantage * your bankroll, where your advantage is calculated in the usual way. Say for a 6d shoe, you start at -.5, and at a TC of +4, your rough advantage is 1.5%. .75 * .015 * bankroll is the safe amount to bet. If you bet less, your win rate suffers. If you bet more, your win rate goes up but so does your risk of going bust before you double your BR...

hope that helps. If you want to post a specific bankroll amount, a particular counting scheme, and particular game rules, I can give you the CVCX "optimal bet per TC" results...
 
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Canuck

New Member
#6
#6
Blackbelt in blackjack

this book I just finished reading it had a section on single deck and playing it out with a spread of 1 to 2 on a full table where you get 2 rounds then a shuffle. I recommend getting the book.
 
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phantom007

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
PRESUMPTIONS......

Would presume that $500. is NOT your Total B/R. If so, spread 5-10, and expect a circa. 25% ROR, and then only if you are a VERY GOOD CC!

Otherwise, spreading 2:1 on SD, 4:1 on DD, and 6:1 on 6D, you will win 1-2 Max. Bets per Hour as a long-term average, and again, if you are very good. Subtract from this tips (You better if this a local store that you frequent!),and any/all other expenses that you may have.

You indicated that the store you shop in has a Table Max. of $200. I suspect that anything above $50. is going to be noticed, and quite possibly, anything "NOT RED". For example, a $20.-$40. spread should earn one $40./hour after expenses, plus free stuff, and if you wish, tax-free (GRIN!).

Not a bad Part-time job!

And certainly, at a JUICY local store, one would never want to do ANYTHING that would keep one from "FEEDING AT THE TROUGH". Wide spreads will sooner-or-later put you on a diet.

phantom007.
 
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Shaggy18vw

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Don't get your hopes up

"For example, a $20.-$40. spread should earn one $40./hour after expenses"
-Phantom007

This is not correct. A spread of 1:2 on single deck with will not win two units an hour. Even using a level two count like AOII and all the indicies would be hard pressed to achieve numbers like that and I don't think our poster is that competent a counter. A 1:2 spread with a system like hi-lo and about 30 indicies would probably earn 1/4 to 3/4 of a unit an hour ($5-$15). This is assuming good penetration and only a couple other players max.

Maybe SSR could run some quick numbers, but I think phantom is way off. If only it were that easy.
 
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stainless steel rat

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
your wish is my command. :)

I just used a canned Sim Norm had supplied, hilo, with the I18/F4 indices only. For a SD game using RO7 (favorable) with one player, you should get 6 rounds at about67% penetration (average number)

I also assumed S17.

HiLo will actually barely beat this particularly good pen game with flat-betting. Betting a unit of $5 would win $1.46 per hour. :) spreading 1-2 increases this to $5.92 per hour and 1-4 produces $13.65 per hour... Of course it is more likely that bigger units would be used at such small spreads.

this game is _way_ sensitive to penetration. RO6/RO7 is not uncommon, but then again I have seen SD games with a cut card that is positioned by a slot in the discard tray (50% is not uncommon) as well as a cut card positioned by the whim of the dealer...
 
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Shaggy18vw

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
That was fast SSR

Those numbers are about what I expected. A $5 to $10 spread yields $5.92 an hour. This is equivalent to spreading $20 to $40 and earning $23.68 an hour. This is a little better than I mentioned in the earlier post. But I have never seen S17 single deck and I'm not sure if the sim allowed surrender (I have never seen SD with surrender either). SSR mentioned that the indicies played included the Fab 4. But this does give you an idea of what you are up against. Bear in mind if your bankroll is only $500 you should be playing a much smaller unit to avoid losing the entire stake.
 
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stainless steel rat

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
additions

I did not include surrender. But I also was not sure about the double rule to use either. i.e. double any 2, double 10-11, or whatever. The canned sim probably has DA2 which might not be correct... I always include F4 since I use them. Of course, many SD/DD games don't have LS, so including them in the sim produces exactly nothing for the games without LS.

I was pretty impressed that HiLo would win anything at all flat-betting. Pretty surprised in fact.

If you have specifics, I can run a specific sim easy enough. Norm made it so damned easy to do, all it takes is computer time..

Here is an interesting experiment I have been doing for a few months.

I first started with a trip BR of $1000, and played DD almost exclusively. I played until I busted out or doubled, at which time I would reset to $1000 and start again. I played 5 of these trials, spreading either $5-$40 heads up, or $5-2x$25 with others at the table, and amazingly I doubled the bank each time. I doubled in 500 rounds once, and one trial took 5000 rounds (hands) to double, and on that trial I actually reached a remaining BR of $35, on a big count. My bet should have been $40, but all I had was $35. I won, and was amazed that I climbed back to even and doubled. After 3000 rounds I was dead even, having played about 30 hours for zero profit.

I then started at $500 rather than $1000, spreading the same. I have now completed three of these trials, and have doubled twice and busted out once. Not enough real data yet to draw any conclusions... It does seem like every trial sees a quick drop in BR, followed by a fight back to even and upward after that...

So $5 to $40 is probably playable with $500, knowing that there is definitely a ROR to deal with...

More as I continue this. Much of this has been in 2-3-4 hour spurts but I'm going to hopefully have a long weekend in a few weeks on the MS coast. If things work out... It's fun to piss my brother off doing this while he and his wife play all the carnival games (3-card, carib stud, let it ride, you-name-it) and lose their shirts. And they keep telling me "you should play something besides BJ." I always answer "Why don't I just go flush a few hundred bucks down the toilet and save the travel time and expenses?"

:)
 
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Auotmatic Monkey

New Member
#13
#13
Risk-of-ruin for the employed

The Kelly Criterion and ROR for a fixed initial bankroll is pretty straightforward, but how does one compensate for being an employed person who always has money coming in and will never be "ruined", even when leaving the casino with empty pockets?

Sitting and playing for a lower win rate than one makes working can become very tedious. Is there any formula to include the amount of money one is willing to add on a regular basis from an outside source when deciding on betting unit sizing?
 
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stainless steel rat

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
easy

Your first question is easy to answer. :) You have a 0% ROR because you essentially have a "bottomless pit" for a bankroll. That's how I play in fact. I decide on what I am willing to risk for a weekend trip to the coast, or for (say) our yearly trek to Vegas next summer. All I try to do is figure out the ROR for my "trip bankroll" to plan my "betting level" as there is little point taking $500 for a weekend and plopping down at a $100 min table. Chances are good that will be a very short session and the rest of the trip will be a non-gambling experience. :)

Someone asked that kind of question on rge21 or ap.com. The answer was not precisely calculated. But one suggestion went like this:

If you can add some dollar amount to your BR each month, let's say $500 just to have a figure. Then you could easily play as if you have a $6000 BR, and set your betting level accordingly. Mentally thinking that $500 is your "session BR" (implying one session per month if you go bust the first month). But you will win some sessions. And each time you win, your ROR drops since you have your original BR, plus your recent winnings, plus your "future BR additions" yet to be folded in.

My playing is more for fun, although I certainly take winning seriously. I generally just take $x.xx with me, enough to support my typical $5-$50 level spread for DD games. And a winning session or two might find me at a $25-$100 SD/DD game the next day. Experience has taught me that if I take $500 per day, I'm not going to go broke at that betting level every day. I might bust once or twice in a week, but then the winning sessions make that up...
 
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