Against my better judgement -- an endorsement

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#1
Within moments of opening this book for review, I was overwhelmed by two conflicting sentiments, both expressed by the same words: "Oh my god, he's giving away the secrets!"

On the one hand, the information in this book was material I had always hoped to figure out myself some day. Here it all was, laid out in plain and easily understandable terms. The other side was that once out, casinos would take counter measures to insure that these techniques would no longer work. Such information is rarely made public.

Please note that we are NOT selling this book, and do not stand to benefit in any way from its sale.

--Mayor

=====================================
PRESS RELEASE - NEW BOOK ANNOUNCEMENT

TITLE: Blackjack Ace Prediction
SUBTITLE: The Art of Advanced Location Strategies for the Casino Game of Twenty-One!
AUTHOR: David McDowell
FOREWORD: Michael Dalton
COVER ART: Abigail Kamelhair
COVER IMAGE: http://www.bjrnet.com/catalog/BJAP/BJAP_Cover.jpg
ISBN: 1-879712-10-5
LCCN: 2004110090
MSRP: $34.95
PAGES: 160
BINDING: Perfect bound 8.5"x5.5"
PUBLISHER: Spur of the Moment Publishing
PUBLISHER ADDRESS: PO BOX 541967, Merritt Island, FL 32954-1967 USA
PUBLISH DATE: August 2004
AVAILABILITY: ~ August 20, 2004

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DESCRIPTION:
The winning blackjack technique known as Ace Prediction, Ace Tracking, Sequence Tracking or Key Carding remained the closely guarded secret of a handful of high-stakes professional blackjack players for more than 20 years. Ace prediction can be extremely profitable given the right conditions. Here it is folks -- the complete scoop on this mathematically valid and proven blackjack winning technique. Sequence trackers will find in this book the author's own formula for identifying the profitable games. The author begins the book by studying all known published references on the subject. Chapter 2 examines aspects of non-random shuffling. Chapter 3 is the author's own analysis of non-random shuffling using a statistical procedure provided by Ed Thorp. Chapter 4 tells how to identify and exploit weaknesses in casino shuffles. Chapter 5 offers practical advice on locating Aces in shuffled decks. Chapter 6 explains how to predict Aces during the game. Chapter 7 deals with the calculation of mathematical expectation using simple formulas. Chapter 8 gives advice on bet sizing, probability of ruin, return and risk. Finally, the tables at the end of the book will be useful for making your own analyses of shuffles. Intermixed in the author's exhaustive presentation are some exciting personal stories from the pits.

REVIEWS URL: http://www.bjrnet.com/catalog/BlackjackAcePrediction.htm

REVIEWS:
"David McDowell has written the best book of the new millennium on blackjack advantage play, by quite some distance. The book is a rare combination of creative innovation and intellectual rigor, qualities found in some of the more talented gambling authors but very rarely both together. In time I will believe it will be held up as a blackjack classic second only to Thorp's seminal "Beat The Dealer".

"The book covers the art of blackjack sequencing, a dark art that even very few gambling professionals truly understand, let alone have mastered. The basic method involves memorizing a string of cards hoping that their order will be partially maintained by the shuffle. Under optimal conditions, this can give you an advantage a card counter could only dream of. The method is both completely legal [and] very difficult to detect."

"Although writers like myself, David Morse and Arnold Snyder have hinted at the possibilities of sequencing, McDowell is the first writer to completely explain all of the fine detail required to predict aces successfully, and in a stroke render all other writings on the subject obsolete. Every piece of information you could possibly need to use this extremely powerful technique is contained within. There is no waffle, though the book also uses some entertaining stories by way of illustrating the techniques therein, and is surprisingly readable given the scientific and dry nature of the basic subject matter. The book is worth several hundred times its cover price, and is an essential purchase for the intelligent gambler, particularly those who like to travel, where ace prediction techniques can be used with devastating effect."
--- John May -- author of the books Baccarat for the Clueless and Get the Edge at Blackjack

"With his compelling Blackjack Ace Prediction, David McDowell, a relative unknown in the blackjack world, bursts onto the scene in impressive fashion. His scholarly approach to the subject, replete with enlightening illustrations and copious footnotes, is a joy to read. I have a feeling that the relatively small group of players already aware of the techniques that McDowell describes are not going to be happy that he has gone 'mainstream' with the information. This is a well-researched treatise, and I'm happy to recommend it to serious students of the game."
--- Don Schlesinger - author of the book Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way

"Thorp didn't want to publish on Ace location, and my chapter on the subject is short for the same reason. Nevertheless, here it is, 160 pages in plain English, and worth its weight in flawless diamonds. Blackjack Ace Prediction is the fire from the dragon's mouth, bound to burn unsuspecting tables around the world. This book is a total must-have for the serious blackjack player."
--- Rob McGarvey - author of the book Aces and Faces Blackjack

"If you are interested in how to beat casinos by analyzing non-random shuffling, you will find David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction an interesting and enjoyable read."
--- Ed Thorp - author of the best selling book Beat the Dealer.

"David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction is the most authoritative book on the subject. Many will consider his work as the final chapter in advantageous blackjack play - as the cat has finally been let out of the bag."
--- Michael Dalton - author of the Encyclopedia of Casino Twenty-One and editor of the Blackjack Review Network

"Blackjack Ace Prediction offers a scholarly treatment of the subject with pragmatic potential for increasing profits for the serious blackjack player. David McDowell, the author, and Michael Dalton, the publisher are to be congratulated for this important addition to our knowledge of blackjack."
--- Lance Humble - senior author of The World's Greatest Blackjack Book

"Blackjack Ace Prediction is a winner. It will, no doubt, prove to be the best work on ace tracking published to date."
--- Steve Forte - author of the book Read the Dealer and the Gambling Protection Series videos

"Does shuffling a deck of cards put them into random order? Not exactly. This book explains how to follow particular cards through the shuffle to have a much-better-than-guessing chance of predicting when they will be dealt. This skill is particularly valuable when used to predict aces at blackjack. David McDowell discusses the work that has already been done on ace prediction by other people, and makes his own contributions to the topic. All in all, an interesting work."
--- Stanford Wong - author of the book Professional Blackjack

"McDowell's book is well researched and represents a wonderful compendium of all the important work relating to non-random shuffling and its effects on the game of blackjack. Probably the best book on Ace prediction today, and an interesting read to boot."
--- Robert Hannum, Ph.D. - Dept. of Statistics & Operations Technology, University of Denver

"David McDowell provides an interesting example of how the game of blackjack can still be exploited by the knowledgeable player. He does an excellent job integrating statistical inference with advantage play theory, and interesting gaming stories. This book is a must read for any player interested in assaulting the casinos by locating and tracking those valuable aces."
--- Bill Zender - author of the book Card Counting for the Casino Executive

"[Blackjack Ace Prediction] is the most comprehensive work on the subject I have ever read. As an advantage player and gaming risk consultant I have an extensive advantage play library. I have one shelf with books that, in my opinion, are the very best at covering their chosen subject - I have made room for one more. I don't think this book will do too much damage to AP's - it is brilliant, but like Grosjeans book and Arnold's Cookbook, you have to read it - casino people are unlikely to put in the effort; that's why they're casino people."
--- Michael Barnett - Surveillance Technology, Perth, Western Australia - http://www.survtech.com.au

The Blackjack Review Network is an enterprise of Spur of the Moment Publishing
http://www.BJRnet.com - PO BOX 541967, Merritt Island, FL 32954
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Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
#2
Judgement Smudgement

My sentiments exactly. Soon they will be [snip]. I would have been much more pissed if there was no online blackjack, but the deed is done. I don't think they will know how to react and didn't want to tell them what they need to do, hence the snip. A very detailed piece of work that should not scare the AP off. The writer is a real old timer who's made his money by keeping his mouth shut for years.

Rob
 
#3
Cheesy Endorsement of the Year Award goes to...

... the big VR. zg (gag me with a spoon)

"Thorp didn't want to publish on Ace location, and my chapter on the subject is short for the same reason. Nevertheless, here it is, 160 pages in plain English, and worth its weight in flawless diamonds. Blackjack Ace Prediction is the fire from the dragon's mouth, bound to burn unsuspecting tables around the world. This book is a total must-have for the serious blackjack player."
--- Rob McGarvey - author of the book Aces and Faces Blackjack
 
#5
I don't get ace sequencing

Then again, I didn't think I could get card counting until I read a paragraph about it somewhere and figured I could do it. And I didn't believe in shuffle tracking until I tried it and found I could manufacture my own good luck shoe after shoe. Perhaps ace sequencing should be next.
 

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#6
Simple test

Take a deck of cards, put all 4 aces next to each other and place the grouping somewhere in the deck. Shuffle once. What is the average separation between the aces? Shuffle twice. Now what is the average? Shuffle three times. And the average is? Repeat this many many times, and get some statistical data. What is the average distance and the standard deviation? How often did you cut the cards between two aces during the shuffle? How often were you successful in predicting an ace using this easy method?

You begin to see what it's all abouit...

--Mayor
 
#7
So if I understand this correctly...

... a stepladder followed by a perfect riffle and restack should give me a 50% chance of an Ace appearing 5 cards away from it's neighbor when it was put in the discard rack.

The first problem I see with this is caused by multideck games. Let's say my key for an Ace is the Six of Diamonds, but there are several Sixes of Diamonds in the shoe. How do I know which one it is? Using a couple of key cards in succession should help, but wow it that complicated! It might be hard to count and sequence the Aces at the same time. However it seems like it could make for good team play, no bankroll sharing required. One player counts the cards and the other one does the Aces.
 

gehrig

Well-Known Member
#8
"couple of key cards" even in s.d./d.d. game

may not be enough. i've been playing with this for a number of years after being shown the technique at a game protection seminar. recalling 4 cards seems to sharpen the accuracy, particularly in a hand with multiple aces.

shopping for house shuffle procedures that can in this way be exploited is but another sliver in the continuum one should seek when trolling the aisles. unlike varying/"dealer dependant" penetration, the shuffle procedure is more strictly enforced. surveillance should quickly notice a fewer than "mic" shuffles while slightly varying penetration is less noticeable unless the game is being hawked.

while i haven't bought/seen the "new" book, i've concluded that the enhanced technique is to steer the aces to one of your (or if applicable, your partner's) hands. this while maintaining a worthy count. the gymnastics of maintaining that count, plus perhaps an ace side count, plus "several" key cards, with an apparently inattentive act, adds salsa to a (by now), droll game.

this game is still fun though. "recently" the technique was successful at a "strip" joint. likely i dented the hold for that shift. the 'stiff's long face when i colored up made me a tad guilty. almost.
 

john

Well-Known Member
#10
Tried it

Hey. CVBJ's shuffle tracker or whatever it is called allows you to practice ace sequencing. After practicing a few weeks, I bought in at a casino for red chips and tried it out. I found that I was predicting the aces quite well. Imagine how dismayed I was when 3rd base wanted to take some hits after the 4 of clubs and 7 of hearts came out in succession. I was saying to myself, "no no no don't" but he kept hitting and 4 aces came out in a row. I was on first base. My next bet was a small one. I did land a huge blackjack with this method but then eventually lost my buy-in. I never tried it again since the science is kind of scarey to me.
I think many big name players actually advise against practicing it. If you can pull it off, you'll be immortal. Comps galore, play for hours at a time without problems, etc etc..... wow what a life. I, on the other hand, am focusing on poker right now. I am still not playing for money yet but merely thinking about poker and reading about it is making money in my mind. Kind of like an upper mathematics couse, 95 % of a problem is done with the mind, the other 5 % is writing down the solution.
 
#12
Looking for help with ace location

I've posted this on a couple other sites with no luck. . . can anybody here help?

I'm doing my best to adapt the "Card Gaps For an x-Riffle Shuffle," tables from Blackjack Ace Prediction(p.47-52) to calculate optimal bets when tracking aces in single deck games. All I'm after is to predict a few boxes where the optimal bet is greater than .5% of my bankroll.

I've been trying to figure out a way to adjust those tables for multiple breaks -- for instance, a riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut shuffle. I don't think I can simply subtract 1/51 per break like McDowell does, since the deck is riffled again after the break. The best figures I can come up with show the following optimal fractions for the described shuffle as:

Code:
D<sub>i</sub>  [i]f[/i]
4  0.4%
5  0.7%
6  1.0%
7  1.4%
8  0.9%
9  0.6%
10 0.5%
(based on variance=1.32; for a betting box separated from the key card by i cards)

Can anybody tell me if I'm in the ball park? Or better yet, where I can get more info on SD ace location?
 

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#13
The standard single deck shuffle...

A riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut shuffle is the one that was used at the Horseshoe for years on their single deck. It is still used fairly universally for single deck.

You get this, and you are holding gold. Are you sure you want this to be a public discussion? Maybe those who know will not tell ... that is what I would expect.

--Mayor
 

Theef

Active Member
#14
Snyder: BJAP is "folly"

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/mcdowellsfolly.htm

Arnold Snyder's opinion of McDowell's book is as harsh as the Mayor's endorsement and the notable blurbs are glowing. Food for thought.

Who's right? Is the book gold or worthless? On various message boards I've read testimonials on both sides.

Forgive my paranoia, but I've got a slight suspicion that, to protect AP opportunities, at least one of the people who have commented on this book is being less than candid. Maybe the book is junk but people would prefer that casino personnel think it's accurate? Or maybe the book is accurate but other people wish to dissuade the unwashed masses from crashing the party? Or maybe I'm just being paranoid and the book has valuable information but also wrong conclusions, or something.
 

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#15
research....

There is a lot to be said on doing your own research. For example, I am writing code right now to model the riffle-riffle-strip-riffle-cut standard shuffle for single deck, with the sort of human imperfections that arise naturally built into the code. I am looking for anything that will allow me to track aces through use of a single key card (the card right before the ace). There are clear statistical anomolies in this shuffle. I am not sure whether these anomolies can be exploited in practice. That's always the point.

--Mayor
 

Sohrab

Active Member
#17
McDowell

I am not a math guy but Snyder's explanation made sense to me. Looks like McDowell forgot that a deck without aces has much worse EV than overall BS would have. So McDowell's calculation of EV by EVaces + EVrestofdeck is too high.
 

Theef

Active Member
#18
Me too, kind of

I'm actually working on something quite similar, but with DD as well as SD in mind. I wasn't sure SD games were still common enough to spend the effort searching for SD-only techniques, but I'm also not sure a DD shuffle would work as well. I don't know which places have weak shuffles and I don't expect to be told. I'm mainly just code-monkeying for the challenge; I furthermore assumed CVShuffle, which I don't own, can already do what I'm doing.
 

gehrig

Well-Known Member
#19
ace sequencing and steering...

have been around the game protection seminars for at least 5 years that i've seen. when i saw the technique, 4 cards were "keyed". the number of boxes played varied as did the wagers. it appears to me that the sophistication of the shuffle is the prime determinate in gaining any ev.

rather than worrying the math, i'd view the technique as an adjunct to other methods... just another arrow in the quiver.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#20
Icing on the cake

> rather than worrying the math, i'd view the technique as an adjunct to other
> methods... just another arrow in the quiver.

I would usually agree that any additional EV gained from such methods can be viewed as extra "gravy." This is how I view occasional benefits like seeing burn cards, bottom cards, or a few cards during a riffle. The additional edge is there, but its magnitude is not important.

However, I think that the large advantages that can potentially be obtained by shuffle tracking and sequencing are enough to impact a player's EV to the point where it alters his risk-of-ruin, perhaps significantly. If you were able to earn an extra 1% edge then it would be important to know that information in order to adjust your betting level and bankroll size. I'm not claiming that an additional 1% edge is attainable, but if it were it would be very significant to know the value of such a play.

And the smart kids always love a new problem to solve, don't they?

-Sonny-
 
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