Alternate blackjack applications for skeptics

[Pet's-Pet]

Here is the situation:
Suppose you are carrying your entire NON-replenishable bankroll on your person, and your worse nightmare comes true ... a thug that is most definately stronger than you attempts to mug you. Having a good amount of "streetwise", and great judgement you figure that your odds of prevailing in this situation is 1 in 3.
What do you do?
(Answer in next post)

 

[The Mayor]

One answer.

Your EV from the situation is to retain 1/3 of your BR, so throw 2/3 of your bankroll at him and run. This is not the "risk averse" solution, however.

 

[Felix Rue-de-Guerre]

Can't really answer

Your probability might be 1 in 3 but your odds would be much worse.

In order to calculate your odds you would have to put a dollar value on your life, or broken ribs etc.. Are you about to do that?

Assuming he will leave you alone if you give him the money. Just give it to him and stop going to the Western.

-Felix

 

[Pet's-Pet]

The math is pretty clear on this one

Of course we could multiply the considerations like Felix points out or try to escape the situation by non violent means like The Mayor points out, but I am making the assumptions when I say "great jugement" (and I agree that establishing these facts would be the most difficult part of the equation) that all possible outcomes are factored in. And don't forget that if you lose your entire non-replenishable bankroll, that would put you on the street.

So the answer is FIGHT, because you should only surrender if you have less than 1 in 4 chance of success.

 

[Pet's-Pet]

Perhaps the skeptics are wright

I was thinking a little bit more about this, and perhaps I am indeed making too many assumptions because I cannot accurately quantify what can be saved by surrendering, as in blackjack I know I save half my bet.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Very true but I'd fight...

...because if I lose the fight and get killed, the value of my bankroll will decrease to zero and you I miss it. Where I'm going neither cash nor casino cheques are accepted. (Unless I go to Hell, they will take cheques from the Western there.)

The downside is that if you win the fight and eff him up or even kill him, there is nothing to gain. And you'll have to deal with him or his relatives in court telling sob stories about how you attacked him and thus he is entitled to your bankroll anyway.

At Wal-Mart I bought this neat money pouch that straps around the waist at the beltline, and you wear your money over your pelvis. Hides up to 100 bills with no bulge at all. For a person to reach down there and get it, he'd have to stand in front of me with his hands down and his face at my shoulder level or below. This is a real bad position for him to be in if I start swinging. But hopefully this will never be an issue. Hell if my variance continues the way it has been this year I won't be worth robbing!