Am I going to 0?

[ZenKinG]

Back in April my bankroll hit an all time high of 61k. '9 MONTHS LATER' I not only have not grown my bankroll, it has fallen 14k(mostly due to expenses, but also a terrible losing streak that will never end. Moving to vegas, expenses have for the most part been the reason for my bankroll falling apart, but losing has also contributed to it. Even before I got to Vegas, my bankroll was in a standstill breakeven period for about 100 hours, but since I got here, it's gotten even worse. I'm now down -4600 since I got here and I've never seen the most disgusting beats time and time again. My 20's at max bets just keep getting drawn to 4 card or 5 card 21's. If it's not that, it's the dealer consistently swiping my bets off the felt with backdoor blackjacks or double downs that get drawn to 5 card 20s and 21s even if I get a good double down. It just never ends. This is variance on steroids. You would think after 1000 hours, you would reach your EV, but I'm now only at 37k profit with an EV of around 65k. Im now down -1 SD overall and down -1.5 SD since I got to Vegas. You really couldn't have scripted this any worse.

Can it be possible that I'm going to be the first person ever to play a flawless and aggressive wong in and wong out game with optimal re-sizing and playing 90% of the time only positive counts with a 0.2% ROR to lose their whole bankroll? That's why I'm the best. This is what it takes. Meanwhile you got guys like Zee with a bigger bankroll than me and doesn't even split 4's. Skill is absolutely irrelevant in this game. I knew I should've played poker, I would dominate the whole circuit. Sad times indeed.

 

[Joseph Weil]

NO,you won't be the 1st to go to Zero,plenty of players better than you have tapped out.
It's not too late you can start playing poker, then we can hear all your bad beat stories.

 

[KewlJ]

Ok, this may seem cruel, so some of you may want to shield your eyes, but ZenKing needs to hear this.

Zenking you need to stop bitching like a little brat. When you first started posting your 'experiences' at WoV, I felt bad for you because everyone jumped on you and immediately was rooting against you. There is some value in posting about you rough experiences and getting advice and even a word of encouragement from others that have traveled the road before you. I did a lot of that for several years. Sometimes you just need a pat on the back from players who know what you are going through, because most solo counter types don't have family and friends that understand or are supportive. But what you are doing and continuing to do with your bitching and blaming everyone else under the sun is way, way beyond that. It's obnoxious.

Early on in your tirade over at WoV, you blamed me, as if I told you to move to Vegas. (I did not!). And while you haven't mentioned me lately, I can read between the lines and see you still blaming me for your move to Vegas. AND, now there is this other nitwit at WoV, sidthesquid, blaming me by name (and using my real name) for his blackjack career or experiences not going as he had hoped (and on a site that I can't respond to). I did not tell anyone to move to Vegas and follow in my footsteps. All I did.....all I wanted to do was share my experiences and I think I fairly did that, sharing the good, bad and ugly. What some of you guys took from that is on you.

Now lets move forward. 1000 hours, you have a profit of 37k vs EV of 65k. You seem to think this is unprecedented bad variance. It's not! A couple years ago, I had a year....a whole year, where I won 27k, vs EV of 85k and although I don't track my play by time (hours), a year is just about 1000 hours for me. I don't know where you came up with this idea that you should be at EV after 1000 hours? You catch up to EV when you catch up. YOU don't get to decide when that is.

Now, I have never told someone they are not cut out for BJ AP. I think players need to figure out for themselves whether this career and life is for them. So this will be a first....ZenKing based on your responses over the last 6 months, I don't think you are cut out for this!

Now that said, here is one big mistake that you are continuing to make since you have relocated to Vegas. You say you have a bankroll of 50K (or whatever it is at the moment) and are basing your bets and spread on that. BUT, each time you drop 5-10k, you fly into a furious panic and "quit" and ramble on about everyone cheating you etc. That tells me you are NOT playing to a 50k bankroll. Your loss tolerance is maybe 10k at best, so THAT is what you are REALLY playing to. In other words, you are severely over-betting what your bankroll REALLY is.

So, I am not advising anything here. My recommendation is you quit and find something more suitable, because so far you are not mentally able to handle BJ advantage play and the swings that are a regular part of that. Re-read the short paragraph above that I italicized.

But, if you are determined to prove me and others wrong, you need to start over with a new plan (and just in time for the new year). First, decide what your bankroll really is, 10k, 20k, whatever and separate that out from your remaining funds, leaving yourself money to live off for the next year, so the two won't be connected and make negative swings seem worse. Second, resize your bets and spread based on this new smaller realistic bankroll and a reasonable RoR. This is going to mean your EV will be less than you were planning. Deal with it!

Third, you now live in Vegas. There are other non-blackjack AP ways to make some money in Vegas. I know you want to play blackjack. Similarly I too am all about blackjack, but I have learned not to throw away money that is uniquely available in Vegas. I am not going to get more specific here. You have met some non-BJ AP's and it is my understanding you are meeting up again in the next day or two with one very successful non-BJ AP. Ask him to help you. He has a lot of plays that are multi-person plays. Don't be stubborn and insist that you are only here to play blackjack. Take what is available AP-wise, while you get your BJ career going. It's called diversifying and it really comes in handy during those real negative BJ runs.

Finally... stop with the "you are a better player than this one or that one". You haven't proved that. And stop with the "everyone is out to get you" and "everyone is cheating you". If you are going to pursue this and again, it is my recommendation that you don't, but if you are going to, then pull up your pants and do it! Stop bitching like a little brat!

 

[xengrifter]

I knew I should've played poker, I would dominate the whole circuit.

You are still young, it's not too late!

 

[KewlJ]

You are still young, it's not too late!

You really are not helping with this. AND the outcome would be exactly the same.

 

[xengrifter]

But what you are doing and continuing to do with your bitching and blaming everyone else under the sun is way, way beyond that. It's obnoxious.

Concur.

Zenking you need to stop bitching like a little brat.

Concur.

Now lets move forward. 1000 hours, you have a profit of 37k vs EV of 65k. You seem to think this is unprecedented bad variance. It's not!

Concur.

Finally... stop with the "you are a better player than this one or that one". You haven't proved that. And stop with the "everyone is out to get you" and "everyone is cheating you". If you are going to pursue this and again, it is my recommendation that you don't, but if you are going to, then pull up your pants and do it! Stop bitching like a little brat!

Yep yep yep, zactly!

 

[xengrifter]

You really are not helping with this. AND the outcome would be exactly the same.

When the pot is boiling we just give it a little stir, Sir Kewl.

 

[xengrifter]

Back in April my bankroll hit an all time high of 61k. '9 MONTHS LATER' I not only have not grown my bankroll, it has fallen 14k(mostly due to expenses

Then WHAT IS your true BR?

 

[ZenKinG]

Then WHAT IS your true BR?

47k, but if we're just talking for blackjack, im using a 40k bank to calculate my bets due to trying to separate it from my expenses.

 

[ZenKinG]

Ok, this may seem cruel, so some of you may want to shield your eyes, but ZenKing needs to hear this.

Zenking you need to stop bitching like a little brat. When you first started posting your 'experiences' at WoV, I felt bad for you because everyone jumped on you and immediately was rooting against you. There is some value in posting about you rough experiences and getting advice and even a word of encouragement from others that have traveled the road before you. I did a lot of that for several years. Sometimes you just need a pat on the back from players who know what you are going through, because most solo counter types don't have family and friends that understand or are supportive. But what you are doing and continuing to do with your bitching and blaming everyone else under the sun is way, way beyond that. It's obnoxious.

Early on in your tirade over at WoV, you blamed me, as if I told you to move to Vegas. (I did not!). And while you haven't mentioned me lately, I can read between the lines and see you still blaming me for your move to Vegas. AND, now there is this other nitwit at WoV, sidthesquid, blaming me by name (and using my real name) for his blackjack career or experiences not going as he had hoped (and on a site that I can't respond to). I did not tell anyone to move to Vegas and follow in my footsteps. All I did.....all I wanted to do was share my experiences and I think I fairly did that, sharing the good, bad and ugly. What some of you guys took from that is on you.

Now lets move forward. 1000 hours, you have a profit of 37k vs EV of 65k. You seem to think this is unprecedented bad variance. It's not! A couple years ago, I had a year....a whole year, where I won 27k, vs EV of 85k and although I don't track my play by time (hours), a year is just about 1000 hours for me. I don't know where you came up with this idea that you should be at EV after 1000 hours? You catch up to EV when you catch up. YOU don't get to decide when that is.

Now, I have never told someone they are not cut out for BJ AP. I think players need to figure out for themselves whether this career and life is for them. So this will be a first....ZenKing based on your responses over the last 6 months, I don't think you are cut out for this!

Now that said, here is one big mistake that you are continuing to make since you have relocated to Vegas. You say you have a bankroll of 50K (or whatever it is at the moment) and are basing your bets and spread on that. BUT, each time you drop 5-10k, you fly into a furious panic and "quit" and ramble on about everyone cheating you etc. That tells me you are NOT playing to a 50k bankroll. Your loss tolerance is maybe 10k at best, so THAT is what you are REALLY playing to. In other words, you are severely over-betting what your bankroll REALLY is.

So, I am not advising anything here. My recommendation is you quit and find something more suitable, because so far you are not mentally able to handle BJ advantage play and the swings that are a regular part of that. Re-read the short paragraph above that I italicized.

But, if you are determined to prove me and others wrong, you need to start over with a new plan (and just in time for the new year). First, decide what your bankroll really is, 10k, 20k, whatever and separate that out from your remaining funds, leaving yourself money to live off for the next year, so the two won't be connected and make negative swings seem worse. Second, resize your bets and spread based on this new smaller realistic bankroll and a reasonable RoR. This is going to mean your EV will be less than you were planning. Deal with it!

Third, you now live in Vegas. There are other non-blackjack AP ways to make some money in Vegas. I know you want to play blackjack. Similarly I too am all about blackjack, but I have learned not to throw away money that is uniquely available in Vegas. I am not going to get more specific here. You have met some non-BJ AP's and it is my understanding you are meeting up again in the next day or two with one very successful non-BJ AP. Ask him to help you. He has a lot of plays that are multi-person plays. Don't be stubborn and insist that you are only here to play blackjack. Take what is available AP-wise, while you get your BJ career going. It's called diversifying and it really comes in handy during those real negative BJ runs.

Finally... stop with the "you are a better player than this one or that one". You haven't proved that. And stop with the "everyone is out to get you" and "everyone is cheating you". If you are going to pursue this and again, it is my recommendation that you don't, but if you are going to, then pull up your pants and do it! Stop bitching like a little brat!

I hear you and youre right to a certain extent. It's not so much me losing 10k, but the fact that I've stated over and over again if you read that dday thread at wov. It's me having to deal with expenses for the first time ever since it's the first time I moved out of my parents house. Couple that with a horrible losing streak and that's where my frustration is coming from. All I see is a freefall in bankroll amd I dont know what to think. Ive had plenty of times where I lost 10k+ back in PA and I didnt even budge because I was living rent and food free back at my parents house. It's a whole new ball game now.

 

[KewlJ]

47k, but if we're just talking for blackjack, im using a 40k bank to calculate my bets due to trying to separate it from my expenses.

Come on ZK, are you REALLY prepared to lose 40k? OR, after dropping another 5k, will you announce that "you are quitting" and "being cheated" and "the whole world is against you" and "you are the unluckiest guy in the world" and "all of Las Vegas cheats and is run by the mob" and ......

I am not tying to pick on you, but you have to start being honest with yourself. There is no way in hell you will continue playing through 40k (and I don't blame you). So that is NOT your bankroll amount. To size your bets and spread for that amount is a joke. It means you will be severely over-betting what your loss tolerance really is. And a normal negative swing of a few thousand will send you off the cliff again.

If you really want to take a legitimate shot at this. Make 20k your bankroll. That leaves you enough to live for more than a year regardless of what happens to your bankroll. Then size your bets and spread for a low RoR to that 20k. Yes, this means you will be playing lower limits (levels) than you envisioned. probably minimum bets in the red chip level $15, maybe $25 on DD, spreading to chunky green ($150). I know this is half of what you want to play and will be half of what you want to earn (EV/hr). Deal with it. And build from there.

But the advantages are there will be less heat at this level and you can rack up more actual playing time. And the swings will be smaller. So when you lose 20% of your BR, it will be 4k, not 10k. Hopefully you will be able to handle that mentally and as you go through a couple rollercoaster rides up and down, become more comfortable, because you re NOT comfortable with the swings right now.

I am telling you this because I have been there. I built my BR from next to nothing $4300. When I moved to Vegas, it was just about 6 figures, I don't remember exactly. One of my first years here, I started the year on a 4 month downswing of 32-34 thousand dollars. I was like "whoa!", I just lost 1/3 of my BR....my net worth! I had all those same thoughts "Do I stop playing and find a job before I become homeless?" "Do I cut my betting level and spread and soldier on?" "Do I find myself a sugardaddy?", "or play the lottery".

I made it through. A few times of these really negative cycles and you begin to understand that this is how this game works. And this is why you have to be properly bankrolled AND mentally prepared for the swings.

Oh, and DO NOT answer me that you have been through this before, playing Pa, while living with your parents. THAT is not the same thing. Not the same pressure. That is why you need to start small as you work through this mental process. Give yourself a real chance and separate out living expenses to reduce the anxiety.

 

[KewlJ]

It's me having to deal with expenses for the first time ever since it's the first time I moved out of my parents house.

Oh I read the WoV thread! And BTW, you aren't doing yourself any favors by continuing to post in that thread. The majority of the members responding are not trying to help you. They are rooting against you, trolling you at this point. And sadly, Mike is allowing them to. I think Mr. Shackleford forgot why he started that site. His mission statement was something to the effect that he wanted to provide a forum where people could learn from each other and have the best change to gamble with success (something along those lines). That is no longer what the site is. Inevitably these sites all become about different people's ego's. And I have been a part of that on some site. It brings out the worst in all of us. But that's another matter.

I understand this is quite an ordeal for you. Not jus undertaking your dream of AP play professionally, but living on your own on top. That is a lot to add on to an already difficult journey. That is why you have to start small. I hope you have minimized your expenses to live as cheaply as possible while you work through this.

 

[KewlJ]

And one more thing and this isn't your fault. But....I am NOT taking you in! Strangely, I have had 3 people, 2 in the last 48 hours contact me privately, to tell me I should take you in and work with you. I have no idea why, anyone would think that? I am not running a half-way house for want-a-be card counters. I have my brother living with me, who I am molding into the "greatest card counter AP" ever. He is my project. And quite frankly you would be a bad influence on him, with your attitude. Maybe LVBear can take you in.

I will share my thoughts and advice with you as long as you want it, either privately or publicly, but that is as far as I can and will go.

Now, I gotta go to work.

 

[ZenKinG]

And one more thing and this isn't your fault. But....I am NOT taking you in! Strangely, I have had 3 people, 2 in the last 48 hours contact me privately, to tell me I should take you in and work with you. I have no idea why, anyone would think that? I am not running a half-way house for want-a-be card counters. I have my brother living with me, who I am molding into the "greatest card counter AP" ever. He is my project. And quite frankly you would be a bad influence on him, with your attitude. Maybe LVBear can take you in.

I will share my thoughts and advice with you as long as you want it, either privately or publicly, but that is as far as I can and will go.

Now, I gotta go to work.

Well, whoever messaged you about that, that's not something I would be interested in anyway, so it's mutual.

Regarding blackjack, you make a good point about being honest with myself about my bankroll. I probably should've played smaller stakes when I got here due to the added expenses. Looking back. you're right, I didn't really didn't want to lose a modest amount because I would then start worrying like I have been due to no longer living rent free, food free, etc. The thing is though, I wanted to at least have an EV of 50/hr or it just didn't seem worth it.

Right now, I'm not sure I will continue to lower my stakes. I already lowered my max bet to 2x200 and I don't think I want to go any less than that. Instead, I'm looking for a side hustle/job that can supplement my bankroll, in a way replenishing it to offset the expenses that I now have, which isn't much, but it has indeed dented my bankroll a bit. This will leave me with a similar situation to what I had back home and just using the 47k to just play blackjack. Of course, eventually and hopefully learning to do other forms of AP as well, because I have had some people reach out to me to try and help me, which I appreciate a lot, especially since I kind of alienated myself from a lot of people due to a lot of, I guess, crazy posts(frustration).

Ill take note of the advice though, thanks again.

 

[LV Bear]

... Instead, I'm looking for a side hustle/job that can supplement my bankroll, in a way replenishing it to offset the expenses that I now have, which isn't much, but it has indeed dented my bankroll a bit. This will leave me with a similar situation to what I had back home and just using the 47k to just play blackjack.

You've received good advice.

A part-time job is a good idea. There are numerous opportunities for flexible employment in Las Vegas. Not only will a job add some normalcy to your life, the income -- even if relatively meager -- will help you weather the storms. I suggest a real job, even something like working at Starbucks, rather than a "hustle" such as "nightclub promotion" or other such scams.

 

[ZeeBabar]

Maybe ignorance is indeed bliss. I have no idea what my EV Or the amount I should bet given my BR of $56k at present. I just seek DD games and play $25 to $175 spread, play 6 deck games wonging out at TC-2, max bet being 2x $150. In the last 10 months, about 375 hrs, I won $34k. Because I lost $8k in Jan and Feb , I am $26k for the year after 450 hours.

Yes, I make mistakes. However doubling 4,4 against 5,6 instead of splitting probably does not cost me as much as you think. I never split 10's, rarely double A,8.

Maybe if I knew what my EV should be or have higher expectations, I would be depressed too.

 

[BJgenius007]

Back in April my bankroll hit an all time high of 61k. '9 MONTHS LATER' I not only have not grown my bankroll, it has fallen 14k(mostly due to expenses, but also a terrible losing streak that will never end. Moving to vegas, expenses have for the most part been the reason for my bankroll falling apart, but losing has also contributed to it. Even before I got to Vegas, my bankroll was in a standstill breakeven period for about 100 hours, but since I got here, it's gotten even worse. I'm now down -4600 since I got here and I've never seen the most disgusting beats time and time again. My 20's at max bets just keep getting drawn to 4 card or 5 card 21's. If it's not that, it's the dealer consistently swiping my bets off the felt with backdoor blackjacks or double downs that get drawn to 5 card 20s and 21s even if I get a good double down. It just never ends. This is variance on steroids. You would think after 1000 hours, you would reach your EV, but I'm now only at 37k profit with an EV of around 65k. Im now down -1 SD overall and down -1.5 SD since I got to Vegas. You really couldn't have scripted this any worse.

Can it be possible that I'm going to be the first person ever to play a flawless and aggressive wong in and wong out game with optimal re-sizing and playing 90% of the time only positive counts with a 0.2% ROR to lose their whole bankroll? That's why I'm the best. This is what it takes. Meanwhile you got guys like Zee with a bigger bankroll than me and doesn't even split 4's. Skill is absolutely irrelevant in this game. I knew I should've played poker, I would dominate the whole circuit. Sad times indeed.

If you resize your bet according to Kelly Criterion, you will never go to zero.

 

[KewlJ]

If you resize your bet according to Kelly Criterion, you will never go to zero.

Yes, in theory. But you can get down to where your "unit" is below table minimum. Or perhaps force you to play lower minimum tables, which might constitute worse conditions, rules and/or crowding conditions. And even before you got to that point, you could be forced playing lower levels that might yield an inadequate return.

To really do it correctly you would need to resize after every round....no one is going to do that. I suppose the compromise position is to resize after a certain percentage loss, maybe 20% of BR, or 25%. I personally have never done that. I would find it too mentally challenging to lose say 30 to 40k playing $400 max bets and then resize and have to win that back playing $200 or $300 max bets. I would rather have a default position of playing a very small (miniscule) RoR to start with.

 

[Midwest Player]

ZenKing, ever read any of Blackjack Jedi's posts over at BJ21. Some of your posts from above sound just like him. He is a life loser or close to it.

 

[stopgambling]

i started with 4k( saved in half a year of crappy work) build it to 18k in a year but dropped down to $1200 due to ignorant of kelly criterion.so i waste another year to build it to $10k , now i sit with a proper bankroll. All that took 6 years . I would guess it took over 3000 hours. If you want to succeed you just keep at it with a proper approach and stop being emotional about it . what is 37k ? it is nothing compare to what you can learn about yourself ,especially since you are young( under 30)