An Introduction and a Question

[chorgi]

I'm pretty new to blackjack and counting cards. I've been playing since September of 2010. So far I've done pretty well. I haven't kept the meticulous records I've seen many other people keep on this forum, though, but I know I've definitely made money, in the thousands of dollars (vowing to keep records starting now). I've actually gotten pretty good at counting using the KO Method (maybe not by professional standards but I can keep the count in a casino environment). What I am trying to decide is if I've just been lucky so far or not.

I 'think" I understand the basic concepts behind EV and SD when I read about it in books (though I don't know how to actually calculate it myself). Unfortunately, the math about the expected return is a bit baffling to me. I'm 30 years old and used to consider myself great at math (I caught on to counting very quickly because I can do mental math pretty easily) but I haven't used it on a very high level professionally (went to culinary school and work as a chef). I know there are some people that actually make a living playing blackjack (not that many people but they do exist). Page 111 of the KO book has the expected return for all the iterations of the KO system. The Preferred category on a six deck shoe (I live in the midwest and play on river boat casinos) has an expected return of .73% using a betting spread of 1-10 units. Does this mean that my expected return on each hand is only .73% percent ($0.04 with initial bets of $5)? I'm having trouble understanding how someone could actually turn this into a long term profitable exercise if you would only average $4 for every 100 hands played (I know a pro would probably be playing with higher denominations than $5).

While I really enjoy playing blackjack and I find card counting stimulating, I'm asking myself why bother if I'm actually understanding the concept of expected return properly. All the books that I've read so far (the KO book, Blackjack Bluebook II, and beat the dealer... just ordered Blackbelt in Blackjack and Blackjack Attack) proclaim, early on in the book, that blackjack can be beaten by the informed player. The way the books talk at the beginning gives the player the idea that you can make the kind of money the casinos are making off the uninformed gamblers. But then towards the middle or end of the books the hope kind of idea when they start talking about EV and SD. My current understand of it (and I'm hoping I'm wrong) is that counting gives such a small advantage that you might as well not even bother.

Any help or explanation you can give would be greatly appreciated. I've enjoyed reading everything that has been posted in these forums, and hopefully I'll get more up to speed on the math part of this hobby/venture soon. From what I gather, there are other ways of gaining an advantage at blackjack that counting, so I'm going to post an introduction and a question in the Advanced Strategies section of the forum, as well. Thanks.

 

[winnawinna]

I'm pretty new to blackjack and counting cards. I've been playing since September of 2010. So far I've done pretty well. I haven't kept the meticulous records I've seen many other people keep on this forum, though, but I know I've definitely made money, in the thousands of dollars (vowing to keep records starting now). I've actually gotten pretty good at counting using the KO Method (maybe not by professional standards but I can keep the count in a casino environment). What I am trying to decide is if I've just been lucky so far or not.

I 'think" I understand the basic concepts behind EV and SD when I read about it in books (though I don't know how to actually calculate it myself). Unfortunately, the math about the expected return is a bit baffling to me. I'm 30 years old and used to consider myself great at math (I caught on to counting very quickly because I can do mental math pretty easily) but I haven't used it on a very high level professionally (went to culinary school and work as a chef). I know there are some people that actually make a living playing blackjack (not that many people but they do exist). Page 111 of the KO book has the expected return for all the iterations of the KO system. The Preferred category on a six deck shoe (I live in the midwest and play on river boat casinos) has an expected return of .73% using a betting spread of 1-10 units. Does this mean that my expected return on each hand is only .73% percent ($0.04 with initial bets of $5)? I'm having trouble understanding how someone could actually turn this into a long term profitable exercise if you would only average $4 for every 100 hands played (I know a pro would probably be playing with higher denominations than $5).

While I really enjoy playing blackjack and I find card counting stimulating, I'm asking myself why bother if I'm actually understanding the concept of expected return properly. All the books that I've read so far (the KO book, Blackjack Bluebook II, and beat the dealer... just ordered Blackbelt in Blackjack and Blackjack Attack) proclaim, early on in the book, that blackjack can be beaten by the informed player. The way the books talk at the beginning gives the player the idea that you can make the kind of money the casinos are making off the uninformed gamblers. But then towards the middle or end of the books the hope kind of idea when they start talking about EV and SD. My current understand of it (and I'm hoping I'm wrong) is that counting gives such a small advantage that you might as well not even bother.

Any help or explanation you can give would be greatly appreciated. I've enjoyed reading everything that has been posted in these forums, and hopefully I'll get more up to speed on the math part of this hobby/venture soon. From what I gather, there are other ways of gaining an advantage at blackjack that counting, so I'm going to post an introduction and a question in the Advanced Strategies section of the forum, as well. Thanks.

That sounds about right maybe a little low. You should make around 2-3 units per hour (thats the expected EV in most games). Thats why its important to play heads up with the dealer so you can see more hands per hour. I personally never played at the $5 level. I started with a decent replenishable bankroll and started out at the $25 tables. I couldnt see myself making $20 an hour. Not enough return for my time

 

[chorgi]

That sounds about right maybe a little low. You should make around 2-3 units per hour (thats the expected EV in most games). Thats why its important to play heads up with the dealer so you can see more hands per hour. I personally never played at the $5 level. I started with a decent replenishable bankroll and started out at the $25 tables. I couldnt see myself making $20 an hour. Not enough return for my time

Thanks for replying. I could deal with 2-3 units an hour (I'm assuming 4 is even possible since you said $20 an hour). I know I've done much, much better than $4 per 100 hands (which isn't even one unit per hour... especially when you consider it's unlikely to play 100 hands in an hour). My fear was that what I have been doing thus far was a statistical anomaly. Currently, I'm working on building up my bankroll. I'm hoping that I will be able to move up to $10 tables soon. I'm basing that on the idea that I need 1000 times the minimal table bet to play at that table (100 times that max bet on a 1-10 unit spread).

 

[Shoofly]

Thanks for replying. I could deal with 2-3 units an hour (I'm assuming 4 is even possible since you said $20 an hour). I know I've done much, much better than $4 per 100 hands (which isn't even one unit per hour... especially when you consider it's unlikely to play 100 hands in an hour). My fear was that what I have been doing thus far was a statistical anomaly. Currently, I'm working on building up my bankroll. I'm hoping that I will be able to move up to $10 tables soon. I'm basing that on the idea that I need 1000 times the minimal table bet to play at that table (100 times that max bet on a 1-10 unit spread).

You might consider paying more attention to your max bet than your min. For example, if you have a $100 max, and you find a $25 DD game that is profitable at 1-4, you could play that game. Also, playing a $10 table at 1-10 is fine, but if there are $5 tables available, you could be playing a 1-20 spread. Most places are not going to apply any heat at this level.

 

[chorgi]

You might consider paying more attention to your max bet than your min. For example, if you have a $100 max, and you find a $25 DD game that is profitable at 1-4, you could play that game. Also, playing a $10 table at 1-10 is fine, but if there are $5 tables available, you could be playing a 1-20 spread. Most places are not going to apply any heat at this level.

I get what you're saying. And I'll try it when the opportunity arises. Unfortunately, the casinos in my area (four within an hour and a half of where I live... two within 30 minutes) only offer six deck games (unless you move up to the "high roller" section in the Horseshoe Casino). Wouldn't the bankroll requirements still be the same, though, regardless of the spread? I'm just going off of what I've seen recommend, which is 100 times your maximum bet (which would be $10,000 for a max of $100 in the four examples you gave me). Until I get a better understanding of how to calculate RoR, EV, and SD on my own, I have to rely on the information given to me from what I consider reliable sources. Fortunately, the counting itself came much more naturally to me.

 

[Shoofly]

Wouldn't the bankroll requirements still be the same, though, regardless of the spread? I'm just going off of what I've seen recommend, which is 100 times your maximum bet (which would be $10,000 for a max of $100 in the four examples you gave me).

Yes, but the point is, with a $100 max bet, the lower the minimum bet, the wider the spread.

 

[chorgi]

Yes, but the point is, with a $100 max bet, the lower the minimum bet, the wider the spread.

I can see how that would be beneficial in many ways. Thanks for sharing. I appreciate the idea that while I know the mechanics of how to count, I still don't have the perspective that others who have been doing this longer than I have.