And another 80 units down the drain
- Thread starter DonR
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Blue Efficacy
Well-Known Member
AP craps is voodoo. Stanford Wong is a lifetime loser at craps, yaknow.Finn Dog said:
UncrownedKing
Well-Known Member
AP craps requires physical skill (muscle memory) rather than mental skills. It has been mathematically proven that if you could reduce the number of times you roll a seven, you can win in the long run
UncrownedKing
Well-Known Member
I'm pretty interested too. Links would be awesome.
Thank you all for your good advices. I think I'll have to re-think my whole strategy.
Even though, during this last fiasco, the pen was 1.5 decks, I'm usually seeing 2 decks, or even a little bit worse. With 8 decks, and that kind of penetration, just like Creeping Panther and a lot of people here suggest, I wonder if this game is worth playing at all. Unfortunately, nothing else is available anywhere else, close to my place. In all these casinos I visit, I have seen only 1 six-deck table, without a CSM. $25 minimum, of course, and my BR is not very supportive of that. Absolutely no DD, or single deck games here.
People who play, or have played in Canada, will probably agree with me, when I say that Canadian BJ games are extremely difficult, if not almost impossible to beat. My experience has been such, that it is probably a better idea to save some money and plan a trip to better destinations, and try my luck on better games. Of course, travel and hotel expenses are big factors, but nobody ever said this was easy.
Thanks, guys! This is a great forum and I'm sure I'm learning a lot here. It hasn't really paid off so far, but if I ever get a shot at a better game, I'll get those bastards! (I hope, lol).
Even though, during this last fiasco, the pen was 1.5 decks, I'm usually seeing 2 decks, or even a little bit worse. With 8 decks, and that kind of penetration, just like Creeping Panther and a lot of people here suggest, I wonder if this game is worth playing at all. Unfortunately, nothing else is available anywhere else, close to my place. In all these casinos I visit, I have seen only 1 six-deck table, without a CSM. $25 minimum, of course, and my BR is not very supportive of that. Absolutely no DD, or single deck games here.
People who play, or have played in Canada, will probably agree with me, when I say that Canadian BJ games are extremely difficult, if not almost impossible to beat. My experience has been such, that it is probably a better idea to save some money and plan a trip to better destinations, and try my luck on better games. Of course, travel and hotel expenses are big factors, but nobody ever said this was easy.
Thanks, guys! This is a great forum and I'm sure I'm learning a lot here. It hasn't really paid off so far, but if I ever get a shot at a better game, I'll get those bastards! (I hope, lol).
Who said per hour? I said per shoe.zengrifter said:
He is playing 8d games.
He didn't say which playing startegy he's using but miscount four tens as (+) instead of (-) and by the time you reach 5-6 decks played, your counts off by 4 (lvl 1) or 8 (lvl 2).
Miscount four 2,3, or 7's as +2 in one shoe, using Zen, and that adds more to his positive count.
To me it looks like at 6d played (2d in shoe), if he made any of the four errors above, the TC would be off by +2 which would have him overbetting.
That's still virtually no effect?
It's funny that no one else told him to go back and check himself for accuracy, I guess we are all just perfect.
BJC
Last edited:
No offense Don but between "I am usually doing all right playing anything between TC of -2 and +2, or +3. However, anytime I see those higher counts and I push out 8,10 or 12 units" and still even now wondering whether the game is worth playing doesn't inspire too much confidence lol.DonR said:
Not knowing what to expect from betting a certain amount at certain times can make things tough lol. And, if wonging-out while spreading to 2 hands in higher counts makes a sim all the more necessary. Waiting until +8 to make a max bet doesn't sound right anyway for instance lol.
What's the point of playing a better game when you find one if you still know what to expect?
Anyway, good luck.
I actually ran a few simulations in PowerSim, so I have some idea of what the expectation should be. Not too good, but still in the positive territory.Kasi said:
As for my max bet, you must have misunderstood me. I usually make my max bet at +5, not +8.
Speaking of "good games", just out of curiosity, do you play 8D games at all?
kewljason
Well-Known Member
I play mostly 8D games. they can be beat. you need good penetration and not playing negative counts. wonging out at -2 seems a bit much to me. too many negative expected value hands. I would try to get out earlier than that if you can.DonR said:
80 units doesn't seem like a lot. If your max bet is 10 or 12 units, its like 7-8 bets. Any winning or losing that takes place is going to be a result of what happens with your big bets out. maybe you've just lost a few big bets. You gotta be prepared for that. Unforetunately it happens all the time.
Well I guess I was thrown off a littlle, worried a little is a better word lol, maybe by the vagueness of betting anything between +-2 or I guess sometimes +3. Don't worry about it - I'm a little goofy lol so even saying "usually" max at +5 only makes me hope you have a specific plan in mind when you do not make max bet at +5 lol.DonR said:
No big deal - just sounded maybe a little vague lol. If, whatever you do, is consistent, that's a good thing lol.
I don't think Powersim can handle wonging out and I don't think it can handle spreading to 2 hands but it's great you used it.
If you think you know from Powersim about what to expect then you can also measure the liklihood of your results against that too. If they are way out there, you're probably doing something wrong. If they're not, maybe it's just some bad luck.
I just play BJ for entertainment on vacations and don't try to count and bet in some AP way lol. If I did, I'd own a sim lol.
Tarzan
Banned
I Stand Corrected
I stand corrected... us "fools". Although if you are listening to me, you are listening to a fool, I left out something... quality games. There are places that have such a crummy blackjack game that I will not play there. I would rather not play at all than to play a poor game as I want the most optimum conditions possible that even a fool has a good shot at!
This fool suggests looking at ALL the angles of your play as follows:
-Evaluate your counting method, whatever method it may be is accurate with proven results.
-Have a large enough bankroll that can withstand negative swings within normal parameters and have a sufficient bankroll that a large negative swing does not affect you financially or emotionally.
-Review statistical data carefully, do your math homework! Insure you are using optimal betting strategy. Always look for every hedge and edge you can add to your arsenal.
-Seek only quality games that you have your best shot at so you are not working at a "handicap" with any added HA. I will refuse to play at all rather than play a poor quality game.
You can do everything right and still lose! Random chance is a funny thing! The forces of lucky and unlucky in the universe... and a little luck doesn't HURT! I am not much of a poker player and although I have won a few small tournaments I have never truly profited from poker but I enjoy watching them go at it and go at each other! Johnnie Chan, the whizbang poker player said in an interview that "Along with everything else... you have to get LUCKY. Just think about it... during the course of a tournament you are usually going all in at least 10 times and you have to be damned lucky to survive THAT!" Along with all else and doing everything right, a little luck along the way doesn't HURT but I tell you what... If you don't do everything absolutley perfectly mathematically, you are going to need a LOT of luck.
Blackjack and poker are worlds apart though. A blackjack player goes purely on math because I can't bank on "Johnnie Chan style lucky" to bring home the bacon.
I stand corrected... us "fools". Although if you are listening to me, you are listening to a fool, I left out something... quality games. There are places that have such a crummy blackjack game that I will not play there. I would rather not play at all than to play a poor game as I want the most optimum conditions possible that even a fool has a good shot at!
This fool suggests looking at ALL the angles of your play as follows:
-Evaluate your counting method, whatever method it may be is accurate with proven results.
-Have a large enough bankroll that can withstand negative swings within normal parameters and have a sufficient bankroll that a large negative swing does not affect you financially or emotionally.
-Review statistical data carefully, do your math homework! Insure you are using optimal betting strategy. Always look for every hedge and edge you can add to your arsenal.
-Seek only quality games that you have your best shot at so you are not working at a "handicap" with any added HA. I will refuse to play at all rather than play a poor quality game.
You can do everything right and still lose! Random chance is a funny thing! The forces of lucky and unlucky in the universe... and a little luck doesn't HURT! I am not much of a poker player and although I have won a few small tournaments I have never truly profited from poker but I enjoy watching them go at it and go at each other! Johnnie Chan, the whizbang poker player said in an interview that "Along with everything else... you have to get LUCKY. Just think about it... during the course of a tournament you are usually going all in at least 10 times and you have to be damned lucky to survive THAT!" Along with all else and doing everything right, a little luck along the way doesn't HURT but I tell you what... If you don't do everything absolutley perfectly mathematically, you are going to need a LOT of luck.
Blackjack and poker are worlds apart though. A blackjack player goes purely on math because I can't bank on "Johnnie Chan style lucky" to bring home the bacon.
blackchipjim
Well-Known Member
adjusting bets
I had and sometimes still do have to adjust my bets even with a high count. Don S. blackjack attack has some good info on adjusting your bet by adjusting your index up a little more than usual. It does wonders for head when the chips are down so to speak. I myself use an unbalanced count system so I watch carefully what is really happening and to whom. I've sat at countless tables with high counts only not to have the cards dealt to ME. I wonder sometimes what I did so wrong to have this curse put on me at times.:laugh: blackchipjim
I had and sometimes still do have to adjust my bets even with a high count. Don S. blackjack attack has some good info on adjusting your bet by adjusting your index up a little more than usual. It does wonders for head when the chips are down so to speak. I myself use an unbalanced count system so I watch carefully what is really happening and to whom. I've sat at countless tables with high counts only not to have the cards dealt to ME. I wonder sometimes what I did so wrong to have this curse put on me at times.:laugh: blackchipjim
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. Obviously *if* you could roll what you wanted, you'd be able to beat craps. But that doesn't really mean anything. It's whether someone can learn the skill to an effective degree, and I have yet to see any evidence of it.UncrownedKing said:
blackchipjim
Well-Known Member
rolling bones
I think that you could roll dice just as effectively as you could roll a bowling ball down a bad alley. Control comes to different people in various forms some good and some aren't. I wouldn't denounce a skill that some may posess to some degree. That's just my oppinion though. blackchipjim
I think that you could roll dice just as effectively as you could roll a bowling ball down a bad alley. Control comes to different people in various forms some good and some aren't. I wouldn't denounce a skill that some may posess to some degree. That's just my oppinion though. blackchipjim
UncrownedKing
Well-Known Member
I wasn't being sarcastic. Many other sports are played with the skill to control something once it leaves your hand, baseball pitching, bowl (as stated above), horseshoes, basketball, golf, throwing a football (you get the idea). My point is that it is a dexterity issue, some people have it and others don't. Only 1% of the NBA players can shoot free throws with 90% success rate. Influencing the dice can be done (easier for some than others but still very possible), but with massive amount of practice and dedication.
PS A quick statistic(I read it in a dice controlling article, don't know how accurate it is) the chance of hitting a seven is 1 in 6 times. In order to erase the house edge, you only need to roll a seven 1 in every 6.14 times.
UncrownedKing
Well-Known Member
Expanding AP skills to more than one game would be amazing for profits and camo. Links would be helpful to everyone on the site.
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
The redoubtable source of pioneering BJ wisdom, Peter Griffen, PhD.
made it clear that it is more costly (to a Card Counter)
to make errors in Basic Strategy Departure due to rounding UP
True Counts or simply being sloppy / inaccurate in deck esimation, than it
is to not use Basic Strategy Modifications at all.