Stylee said:
You're right, that should be 2.2 units per hour, dark keypads make great mistakes
I guess the part I'm having trouble with is that after loosing 80% of my full bankroll, the remaining 20% IS my full bankroll now which now has a different ROR. Looking back I might have used the wrong calculator, but it kinda serves my purpose. If your ROR changes evertime your bankroll changes, doesn't the "long run" goal also change or start over? If it takes 50,000 hands for variance to even out when betting a certain way with a certain bankroll, does a change in betting or bankroll require a new 50,000 hands for variance to even out in that set of variables?
Now it makes sense to me lol. That's what I thought.
But, yes, if you now have a 200 unit roll instead of a 1000 unit roll, your ROR is different from that point forward. It'd be like you had started with a 200 unit roll in the first place.
All adding more units to a roll does is lower ROR. As long as you bet the same dollars at the same points, your 2.2 units per 100, stays the same. Your EV per 100 stays the same. Your N0 stays the same. Your stan dev per 100 stays the same. Your avg bet stays the same. Naturally it will take longer to double roll with a larger bankroll since you only will make $11 per 100 no matter what size roll is if you bet same dollars at same points.
In other words if you had started with $100K instead of $5K, you still would have lost the same $4K in however many hands. That result, any result, would still be the same number of stan dev above or below expectation after the same number of hands played. 50,000 hands will have an EV and stand dev associated with 50000 hands whether you started with a million or a thousand bucks. But your chances of being able to reach 50000 hands of play changes.
And, of course, your ROR over a finite number of hands will always be less than your original lifetime ROR.
The only difference is that in one case you have $1K to recover with vs $96K to recover with assuming no re-sizing of dollar bets. Which is the same thing as assuming a different number of units in roll. So, if you could change your unit to $1 with $1000 left, you would have same ROR as $5 with $5K since both rolls have 1000 units. You would still make 2.2 units per 100 but now it would be $2.20 per 100 instead of $11.
Hope that helps answer your question.
As an aside, there are ways to calculate the chances of losing x percent of your starting roll at some point.
No don't ask me lol. I just know there are ways lol. But I think a Kelly better probably has a 20% chance of losing 80% of roll at some point.
Do you know what your original ROR was? Guessing a little higher than Kelly?
If this is for real and you know how many hands you lost your $4K over, you can figure out how "unlucky" you were. If that turns out that you were very very "unlucky", maybe look elsewhere to explain the results.