Sonny said:
You know that the end will come, but you don't know when. That fear and uncertainty is the epitome of superstitious gambling, and it is the thing that most of us on this website are trying to avoid.
Knowledge is power. Be strong.
-Sonny-
permitt me to take this quote out of context and forgive me for posting in an inappropriate forum. it is just too kewl of a string of words to pass by.
and of course as usual i'm beating a dead horse. but maybe the thing will get up and let me have a ride :joker: .
yes the end of anything shall come. perhaps the end of some things such as our session of blackjack play what ever the result shall come to pass and then be transformed into a new beginning that is destined to have it's own end. there are several truths about these ends and beginnings that are of interest. those truths have one thing in common in that in either we have the option of choice or decision. with respect to the fundamental underpinnings of what goes on behind the scenes in nature there is a school of thought that see's those actions and phenomenon as discontinuous rather than continuous ie. quantum universe rather than clockwork universe. the conventional wisdom with regard to long run blackjack play is that it is one continuous game. we rely on blackjack simulator programs the results of which give us knowledge and make it seem as if we should view long run results as if it were one continuous game. this philosophy works if ROR doesn't get us, especially if it doesn't get us early on in our adventure upon which we've determined to salley forth upon. if one has played enough blackjack one soon realizes one thing about how it tends to go that being that upon a frequent occasion one happily finds one's self ahead unfortunately the converse is also true. again under consideration of all the above what do we have available in our arsenal of advantage play that is not available to our computer simulation which will alas never even have an intelligence capability equivalent to even that of a grasshopper? we can make a decision a choice. we can even make that decison based upon intelligence. but there is more that the quantum school of knowledge has to provide us about the possibilities of outcomes that are not commonly accepted when one thinks about what can happen next. not only is it apparent that things happen in quantum steps but things can also happen that one would never expect looking at events from the perspective of our macroscopic world. if one could say that anything is normal in the quantum world one would say that it takes an 'outside' quantum influence to 'cause' a related quantum action to occur. but not always as far as we can tell. there may be these phenomenon called quantum fluctuations that come about that can allow 'unpermitted' phenomenon. but thats just an aside. the point is that discrete actions can make permitted and unpermitted quantum phenomenon to occur. i don't know if this is true or not but i'd suspect that if statistics (a cold blooded, objective mathematical entitiy) and blackjack a mathematic dependent game are anything they have the unique capabilities to follow the same 'crazy' laws that the quantum universe does. 'permitted' and 'unpermitted' things can happen. an electron that finds it's self in an 'unpermitted' energy state 'within an atom' can't decide to stay there or leave or even to get there. with blackjack if we reach an 'unpermitted' state we can make a decision and 'cause' that state to temporaily be attained. advantage players because of our capability to use statistics can recognize when such an 'unpermitted' state (ie. positive fluctuation) has been attained.
we can decide either to end our play upon a positive fluctuation, a negative fluctuation, an expected value position, when we are tired or when we are out of loot. we can not always end our play upon a positive fluctuation since it may be one long negative fluctuation, we often become tired or we run out of loot before realizing a positive fluctuation. if we make it our goal to end our play upon a positive fluctuation as often as possible we should be able to in the long run end up with at least our ev and the results of one positive fluctuation and possibly more (strings of positive fluctuation do happen). thats a higher sum than our ev. but what is the long run? perhaps NO tells us. but regardless of what NO maintains might it be possible that there are a load of long runs inside of a long run? i don't know this but it seems concievable that there can be NOs inside of NOs. if so that would open up the potential to make the accumulation of positive fluctuation additive. that represents a potential for bankroll increase above that which could be attained from ev alone. the bankroll increase could then be taken of advantage by increasing ones optimal max bet size which translates to increased ev.
if the end doesn't decide for us when the end shall come then we have the opportunity to decide when the end shall come. let us not only know that an end shall come let us decide when it shall come if we are fortunate enough to to have the opportunity to do so. deciding when the end shall come from a position of knowledge has potential for power.
our play decisions are best made using basic strategy, depature indices, card counting and other advantage play. there is no such methodology for when to end play excepting that one should not play playing out a negative shoe or end ones play when the shoe has a positive count. i believe the matter of when to end play has to some degree been relegated to tongue in cheek hand waiving.
knowledge is power yes. not deciding when to quit if you have that opportunity flys in the face of the old saw "wisdom is the better part of valor" if one intends to restart play anew on another day. if a blackjack shoe is independent with respect to the nature of the preceeding shoe then each new shoe represents an opportunity of achieving not only ev but also positive fluctuation (and yes negative fluctuation). the same logic follows for the new day. let us strive to end each day on a happy note and seek new happy tunes on the following day. let us replace fear with a warm fuzzy trust in our skill, methods and position and uncertainty with valor that is strengthened by our knowledge and wisdom.
best regards,
mr fr0g
