Anyone Want To Chalk This Up To Luck?
- Thread starter CasinoBlackjack
- Start date
I know, Death. I know this is the voodoo section and the poster was talking complete voodoo. I was just saying, if you mix in a minimal amount of counting, then this idea of winning a couple units per day is a little more reasonable. Trying to steer him towards a little more mathematics and a little less voodoo. :laugh:
6 Decks/DSS17/DAS allowed/One card on Aces, no re split/3:2 Blackjack/No surrender
It's a good game I believe.
The most I've been down at any point is $475, 15 units. I don't suspect I will continue another session like that, should I get into a hole.
I continue to do this daily and have made over $17,000. Making time for this everyday is becoming harder, I will continue to do it however.
Some people asked questions, so I will answer those...
The most I've been stuck before making the $100 is $475. I always flat bet and at no point have I ever increased a wager beyond $25. I always try to get to the Casino early in the morning when traffic is low and I have a chance to play heads up. I enjoy an extremely fast game and in the short time I've played Blackjack (about 2 years) I've grown impatient. I enjoy the game very much but I can't stand slow play. Dealer interaction to the point where he has stopped completely to chat, rattles me, as well as when people react to the cards. I know not everyone wants to play a perfect game, so waiting a few seconds to decide whether or not to hit or stand is fine by me. It's when someone has a 15, takes 10 seconds to grumble about it, hits for an Ace, then takes another 20 seconds to complain about the 16 and such.
Playing heads up I can play 3+ hands a minute, making it easier to get out of jams and such, faster. The time I was down 15 units I was able to climb quickly through doubles/splits to make a more reasonable hole to get out of.
Everyone seems to be puzzled I've been able to do this for such a long stretch, but it hasn't been too much of a struggle so far.
I'd be interested in the "odds" of this happening over such a long time without a loss.
It's a good game I believe.
The most I've been down at any point is $475, 15 units. I don't suspect I will continue another session like that, should I get into a hole.
I continue to do this daily and have made over $17,000. Making time for this everyday is becoming harder, I will continue to do it however.
Some people asked questions, so I will answer those...
The most I've been stuck before making the $100 is $475. I always flat bet and at no point have I ever increased a wager beyond $25. I always try to get to the Casino early in the morning when traffic is low and I have a chance to play heads up. I enjoy an extremely fast game and in the short time I've played Blackjack (about 2 years) I've grown impatient. I enjoy the game very much but I can't stand slow play. Dealer interaction to the point where he has stopped completely to chat, rattles me, as well as when people react to the cards. I know not everyone wants to play a perfect game, so waiting a few seconds to decide whether or not to hit or stand is fine by me. It's when someone has a 15, takes 10 seconds to grumble about it, hits for an Ace, then takes another 20 seconds to complain about the 16 and such.
Playing heads up I can play 3+ hands a minute, making it easier to get out of jams and such, faster. The time I was down 15 units I was able to climb quickly through doubles/splits to make a more reasonable hole to get out of.
Everyone seems to be puzzled I've been able to do this for such a long stretch, but it hasn't been too much of a struggle so far.
I'd be interested in the "odds" of this happening over such a long time without a loss.
We've got to have someone figure this out, who has all the programs and etc. How often can you win 4 units (up $100) flat betting $25 before you reach -$500, playing just basic strategy? Some kind of simulation where you get to the positive $100 and then you start a new shoe esentially. I imagine it will be very often with the variable being how long.
The most important thing you'll get out of that will be to see that it's a losing strategy. There is no way to predict when the drop will happen, but it will. When you're flat betting you're betting into a negative expectation game (most of the time.) No amount of walking in and out will change the expectation of the bet you just placed.
This sums up everything you need to know. Think about this statement for a minute, notice how silly it sounds? That's exactly what you all are talking about.
This sums up everything you need to know. Think about this statement for a minute, notice how silly it sounds? That's exactly what you all are talking about.
Orig poster says biggest drawdown by flatbetting $25 is "$475, 15 units [sic]" and claims to have made over $17,000.
Am I the only one questioning the numbers here? Imagine a $5 flatbettor winning $3400, and then realize that the betting scheme here makes the accomplishment even less likely. Can some numbers guy figure out the probability of this occurrence please?
Am I the only one questioning the numbers here? Imagine a $5 flatbettor winning $3400, and then realize that the betting scheme here makes the accomplishment even less likely. Can some numbers guy figure out the probability of this occurrence please?
g
$475 is actually 19 units, not sure where I pulled the 15 from.
I'm pretty sure 99% of posters think I'm bluffing about this, and I can understand why. Just the very thought of having 170 winning sessions (172 as of this post) and being stuck a max of $475 tips the mathematical scales in my mind.
It's a raw fact that BS Blackjack is a losing game in the "long run", but everything I've heard/read about the long run is no one knows when it begins.
It's obviously not impossible for this to happen if I've done it, but why is it even improbable given the fact that no one knows when the long run is?
Lets say someone runs the numbers and the odds come out to, oh I dunno, 1,000,000 to 1. How can numbers even be accurate given the fact that again, no one can account for the long run? I'm not posting a rhetorical question with that, I'd like to understand.
I'm pretty sure 99% of posters think I'm bluffing about this, and I can understand why. Just the very thought of having 170 winning sessions (172 as of this post) and being stuck a max of $475 tips the mathematical scales in my mind.
It's a raw fact that BS Blackjack is a losing game in the "long run", but everything I've heard/read about the long run is no one knows when it begins.
It's obviously not impossible for this to happen if I've done it, but why is it even improbable given the fact that no one knows when the long run is?
Lets say someone runs the numbers and the odds come out to, oh I dunno, 1,000,000 to 1. How can numbers even be accurate given the fact that again, no one can account for the long run? I'm not posting a rhetorical question with that, I'd like to understand.
One more question.
After this finally flunks out for me I will probably take a well needed break from the Casino and perhaps learn how to count. The problem is I heard where I play has extremely poor conditions. I posted the rules of the game I play a page back, and it seems to me that these rules are pretty much top notch. Perhaps penetration and other conditions and poor.
After this finally flunks out for me I will probably take a well needed break from the Casino and perhaps learn how to count. The problem is I heard where I play has extremely poor conditions. I posted the rules of the game I play a page back, and it seems to me that these rules are pretty much top notch. Perhaps penetration and other conditions and poor.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891
But keep in mind that any progression system can easily bankrupt you long before you approach the long run. A player could go broke on their very first session. There is no way to predict when you will bottom out, which is why they can be so dangerous.
-Sonny-
But keep in mind that any progression system can easily bankrupt you long before you approach the long run. A player could go broke on their very first session. There is no way to predict when you will bottom out, which is why they can be so dangerous.
-Sonny-