AP Questions

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
#21
What can I say? You're both right. You are both right, that is you both came to the right conclusions judging by our posts. The truth is that none of us actually knows each other. Both Scott and I are completely different people in real life from the characters we sound like in our posts. I mean if we knew each other in person, arguments like this one would never ever come up. But that is the nature of messageboards. Not everything gets said and the information is never complete. But seriously here folks lets not kid ourselves. I responded to this post:

Rspeirsmlb said:
I know that straight counting, if done correctly yields you about 1-2% edge.....but, what are all the other AP methods used? I've noticed alotta people saying straight counting is lame cause of the only 1% edge, but what other AP techniques are you guys using that is better? I know there is shuffle tracking, ace location...but anything else? Also, what are some sites or books that will teach these methods and how big of an advantage can one have using all these combined? Oh yeah, just read Bringing Down the House.....excellent book.
Let's analyse it. He wants to know what other AP methods are used? He says he knows about shuffle tracking, and ace location. He thinks Bringing Down the House was an excellent book. So far it sounds like he just wants blackjack advise. But when he says he's noticed alotta people saying straight counting is lame what esle are you guys doing, it sounds like he is directly asking me what supercoolmancool are you doing? How can I increase my edge? Tell me the secrets that nobody else will. It seems like he is addressing me personally. Well I think that he pretty much knows all the ways there are to beat blackjack. There are other ways but they all fall in those catagories. I think the best money making opportunites are not found in books. I advise him to use his own brain, think for himself, and look elswhere. Gotta keep your head on a swivel. Don't take advantage of little kids and the elderly, or inividual people. But if you take that creative advantage play mentality and look beyond the casinos, then I think that is a good use of energy. You can find larger edges outside of casinos. That's where the real money is being made. Kind of like Arnod Snyder. He is not a professional gambler but a professional writer. He is still an advantage player. He writes one book and make money from it for the rest of his life with no additional work. He doesn't have to keep doing something and he still gets paid. On a side note I emailed him asking for some advice and he gave me really really bad advice. I'm not quite sure if he was purposely feeding me miss-information or if he really thought what he said was true, but I have always been suspicous of the guy after reading about how hard he makes shuffle tracking out to be in his Blackbelt in Blackjack. But I mean I still advise trying to beat the casinos. That's what I intend to do myself, but I do other stuff too.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#22
You guys are taking this way too far. I NEVER said counting was worthless. The only reason I dont count on a regular basis is because I don't have any good games for counting within driving distance. Please show me a post where I said counting was worthless or does not work.

What I did say. I said that there are other methods that can give you much bigger edges than card counting. Can anyone deny this? Card counting is the lowest on the totem pole when it comes to edges. This is the truth. I never said it was not worth it or it didnt work, I'm just saying that out of all the AP methods out there, counting has the lowest edge. Can anyone deny this?

Tell me Shadroch, Bojack, anyone else, would you be straight card counters with games that are 4 decks, 60% penetration, 25 dollar max bets? Would you? If you answered yes, move to the city I live in, you'll love it, because you'll be hours away from anything different.

So with the above situation, I have to find other AP methods, all of which have bigger edges than straight counting. Have I done anything wrong here? Can you blame me for not wanting to straight count the abismal games and instead destroy the great promotions and great non-counting oppurtunites?

I guess I'd get more respect if I was counting -EV or small EV games instead of utilizing better methods. Sorry guys.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#23
Scott,
I live in NYC,a place where the only quasi-legal games are on gambling boats that use 8 decks,have poor penetration,and charge you $18 to $25 just to get on the ship.What does it matter where you live.When I and everyone else wants to play a decent game of BJ,we get on a plane and go to the games. We don't expect the games to come to us or moan about there being no games. I'm fairly sure Bojack lives in the same area,as does Automatic Monkey.
If you want to be a con man,or a grifter,I have no problem with that. But, please,find yourself a website devoted to such things.Not a website devoted to playing BJ.
If you want to talk about different ways to press an advantage in BJ, thats great.I,and some others,have posted extensively about different promotions we've come across. Sonny had a great run on a promo I pointed out on this forum.Several of my freinds made out on a mistake Bojack pointed out in an East Coast Casino.I took advantage of something Ken Smith pointed out.
But you two keep saying that you've gone into this great mysterious area of AP and when asked about,first say one thing,then claim it was all a joke.
In case you haven't noticed,you guys have gotten several people pissed off at you.I know you don't give a fig about me,but pissing off Bojack,the guy who has the most experiance here,and is willing to share it is just downright stupid,or to put it in terms you might understand: really -EV.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#24
shadroch said:
Scott,
I live in NYC,a place where the only quasi-legal games are on gambling boats that use 8 decks,have poor penetration,and charge you $18 to $25 just to get on the ship.What does it matter where you live.When I and everyone else wants to play a decent game of BJ,we get on a plane and go to the games. We don't expect the games to come to us or moan about there being no games. I'm fairly sure Bojack lives in the same area,as does Automatic Monkey.
If you want to be a con man,or a grifter,I have no problem with that. But, please,find yourself a website devoted to such things.Not a website devoted to playing BJ.
If you want to talk about different ways to press an advantage in BJ, thats great.I,and some others,have posted extensively about different promotions we've come across. Sonny had a great run on a promo I pointed out on this forum.Several of my freinds made out on a mistake Bojack pointed out in an East Coast Casino.I took advantage of something Ken Smith pointed out.
But you two keep saying that you've gone into this great mysterious area of AP and when asked about,first say one thing,then claim it was all a joke.
In case you haven't noticed,you guys have gotten several people pissed off at you.I know you don't give a fig about me,but pissing off Bojack,the guy who has the most experiance here,and is willing to share it is just downright stupid,or to put it in terms you might understand: really -EV.
It's isn't a possibility for me to get on the phone and arrange travel to Vegas at any point for me. I go to school and have a job here. I can't just get up and leave to go search out better blackjack games. It's just not an option for me right now.

I didn't do or say anything that should offend Bojack or anyone else. My opinions and comments are my own, why should they bother anyone else? I never personally attacked him, so he should have no personal beef with me. If someone doesn't like my advice, they can ignore it, but they shouldn't be "mad" at me if I havn't done anything to them personally.

I thought the kiddie carnival thing would be obvious that is was a joke. I have done several AP oppurtunities including promotions, but you really dont care what they were. You only asked me about what I do expecting me to say nothing so you could furthur attack my advice. So be it.

Also, I do not want to be a con man. I don't know where you got that idea from. The closest thing I do to a con is finding a dumb bears fan and betting 20 dollars on the Colts to win the superbowl. I suppose you even have a problem with that.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#25
Yeh, possibly it is unfair and i do agree with you that sometimes personal situations dictate where you play. I'd love to get over to the states just for the experience, but that won't happen this year anyway, so i play the games i've got here. I use whatever techniques work where i'm playing. But i do think that you have to be careful as things can easily be taken out of context on message boards.
On another topic...
Shadrock
"On a side note I emailed him asking for some advice and he gave me really really bad advice. I'm not quite sure if he was purposely feeding me miss-information or if he really thought what he said was true, but I have always been suspicous of the guy after reading about how hard he makes shuffle tracking out to be in his Blackbelt in Blackjack."

I'd be interested in hearing more about this. I have a lot of respect for AS, and personally i feel that his advice on ST is good advice, even if more people can do it than he would suggest. Was it game advice you asked for?

And to finish off, i'm one of those stupid Bears fans. The first season i don't follow the league and my team make it to the Super Bowl. Anyway, since i won't get to see the game till thursday, i think i'll avoid this board between tonight and then so as to avoid hearing the result.

RJT.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#26
RJT said:
Yeh, possibly it is unfair and i do agree with you that sometimes personal situations dictate where you play. I'd love to get over to the states just for the experience, but that won't happen this year anyway, so i play the games i've got here. I use whatever techniques work where i'm playing. But i do think that you have to be careful as things can easily be taken out of context on message boards.
agreed. besides i believe supercool does have a point as it is true that people pretty much take advantage of one another in so many ways. i'd missed the fact that the kid's thing was a joke. i pretty much support his con point as long as it's a con directed against another con. but i do believe one wants to be careful of not getting eaten by a bigger fish :rolleyes:
RJT said:
On another topic...
Shadrock
"On a side note I emailed him asking for some advice and he gave me really really bad advice. I'm not quite sure if he was purposely feeding me miss-information or if he really thought what he said was true, but I have always been suspicous of the guy after reading about how hard he makes shuffle tracking out to be in his Blackbelt in Blackjack."

I'd be interested in hearing more about this. I have a lot of respect for AS, and personally i feel that his advice on ST is good advice, even if more people can do it than he would suggest. Was it game advice you asked for?
uhmm i believe that was supercool that posted about AS. i also would be interested in the facts regarding that advice. it seems unlikely that AS would purposely advise something that was off base.
RJT said:
And to finish off, i'm one of those stupid Bears fans. The first season i don't follow the league and my team make it to the Super Bowl. Anyway, since i won't get to see the game till thursday, i think i'll avoid this board between tonight and then so as to avoid hearing the result.

RJT.
lol thats sort of like placing a big bet on a triple split and then shutting your eyes while the results are dealt out. or not wanting to have the climax of a movie revealed before you see it. i'm the kind that closes their eyes on the big bet but reads a book from back to front. :joker:
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#27
As has been pointed out,that was not me who asked Mr Snyder the question.

As far as personal reasons dictating where you play,I live in NYC ,yet manage to get to Vegas every 6 to 8 weeks,at considerable expense to myself.But as I want to be a BJ player,and thats where the games are,thats where I need to go.

As far as todays game goes,I hope that Indy wins but have bet the game both ways. The Hard Rock is giving a free Surf and Turf dinner at Mr Changs for each $100 bet,so my buddy bet both ways for me. I'll lose $10,and we'll have a nice dinner next time we get together.
I also bet there will be a two point conversion,a pass over75 yards and overtime- 65 -1 odds,but it'll keep the game interesting for me.Hopefully I hit a box or two in the various bar pools I'm in. Lord knows I'm in enough of them. Think its around 12 boxes in 9 bars.
 

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
#28
Sorry guys. I no longer think being a con man is good advice. I have never in my life conned anyone and I don't recommend it as a valid form of advantage play. Also I think card counting is a really great thing and I recommend it to everyone. Group Hug?

I don't want to discuss his personal and private emails on the messageboard, but if you PM me i'll send you a copy of the transcript.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#29
RJT said:
And to finish off, i'm one of those stupid Bears fans. The first season i don't follow the league and my team make it to the Super Bowl. Anyway, since i won't get to see the game till thursday, i think i'll avoid this board between tonight and then so as to avoid hearing the result.
RJT.
Well, I shouldn't have put it like that. It's not stupid to be a Bear's fan, but it's stupid to bet on them without taking at least 7 points in today's game! If you make an even money bet on the Bear's, you're certainly not a sportsbetting AP!

I calculated that the Colts have about a 71% chance of winning, so my edge is 21% betting the Colts to win without giving points or odds. Win or lose, I'm getting down as much money as I can, which isn't a lot, but I'll take it.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#30
shadroch said:
As has been pointed out,that was not me who asked Mr Snyder the question.

As far as personal reasons dictating where you play,I live in NYC ,yet manage to get to Vegas every 6 to 8 weeks,at considerable expense to myself.But as I want to be a BJ player,and thats where the games are,thats where I need to go.

As far as todays game goes,I hope that Indy wins but have bet the game both ways. The Hard Rock is giving a free Surf and Turf dinner at Mr Changs for each $100 bet,so my buddy bet both ways for me. I'll lose $10,and we'll have a nice dinner next time we get together.
I also bet there will be a two point conversion,a pass over75 yards and overtime- 65 -1 odds,but it'll keep the game interesting for me.Hopefully I hit a box or two in the various bar pools I'm in. Lord knows I'm in enough of them. Think its around 12 boxes in 9 bars.
At one point the Bears were +7.5, and now the Colts are -6.5. There might be some line differences if you shop around. You probably wont find Bears +7.5 anymore, but maybe 7. If you could get both of these bets (Bears +7.5 and Colts -6.5) you would have 7 as a nice middle. So if the Colts win by 7 you would win BOTH bets. And there is a decent chance this game lands on 7.

I suppose you had to bet both sides at the same book though, which makes getting a middle impossible as long as you bet both sides simultaneously. So assuming -110 odds you'll just be buying youself a dinner for 10 bucks. I've never been to that restaurant, but I'll bet that is a good deal.

All the sharps were on Bears +7.5 and even +7, but now at -6.5 I say Colts.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#32
Lol, i wasn't quite clear on that. I'm a stupid bears fan, but i ain't stupid enough to have bet on them. Not that i don't feel they have a chance, but i only put money on the line when i know i have the advantage and right now i'm not familiar enough with sports betting to play any kinda odd......

RJT.
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#33
RJT said:
Lol, i wasn't quite clear on that. I'm a stupid bears fan, but i ain't stupid enough to have bet on them. Not that i don't feel they have a chance, but i only put money on the line when i know i have the advantage and right now i'm not familiar enough with sports betting to play any kinda odd......

RJT.
Yeah, I knew you didn't have a bet on them. You seem like a good AP, that wouldn't kill his advantage playing games he didnt know.

If you're looking for action, take a bet on the Bears if you can get 7.5 points, even 7, but 7.5 is much better.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#34
A very nice dinner for two for $10.Plus,I can carry a copy of the winning ticket in my wallet to prove what a great handicapper I am.:devil:
 
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