AP Slot play?

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Preston

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
At my home casino, there is a bank of progressive jackpot slot machines. Each credit is $1. The jackpot hits consistently between the jackpot being $1050-and $1200. Between my wife and I we have observed someone hitting it several times now, always in that range.

Would it be considered advantage play if I wait until the jackpot gets up to that range and start playing the machines?

Before you make fun of me, just know that I hate slot machines and slot players. But I understand they are a necessary evil.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
No,you wouldn't be playing at an advantage.It would be intelligent slot play,in that you are letting others build the jackpot until its around the hitting point,but you have no advantage.
Although someone who says they hate both slots and the people that play them should perhaps stay away from them.
Advantage slot play is taking advantage of a casinos promtion that earns you more comps or a prize valued at more than your theoretical losses.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
Well, there are ways to beat progressive slots. You just have to have some idea of the odds of hitting the jackpot, and how much the machine returns without considering the jackpot.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
It's incredibly risky, and requires a large bankroll, and tons of time. It's the sort of thing that's conducive to team play.
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
EasyRhino said:
It's incredibly risky, and requires a large bankroll, and tons of time. It's the sort of thing that's conducive to team play.
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Sure. There are also some quarter and nickel progressives that could probably be beaten with a 20k bankroll. And its definitely a team thing. You want to sit down and take up the whole bank until you hit the jackpot.
 
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positiveEV

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
You could try to estimate the number of spins between each jackpot is won. If you take a large amount of spins, you should get somewhere a number near the odds of winning it. Then do the same with each kind of payout, you then know the odds of catching each kind of payout and then you can calculate the odds. This would take a huge amount of time and it might not be worth it.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
asiafever said:
You could try to estimate the number of spins between each jackpot is won. If you take a large amount of spins, you should get somewhere a number near the odds of winning it. Then do the same with each kind of payout, you then know the odds of catching each kind of payout and then you can calculate the odds. This would take a huge amount of time and it might not be worth it.
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Using a random Number Generator as they do,the odds of a jackpot being hit on the first spin after a Jackpot is exactly the same as on any other spin.The exceptions being when a jackpot has to be hit at a certain level.In that event,the closer you get to the drop dead point,the better your chances of hitting it.But the only way to be certain of hitting it is for a team to control every machine. Then one of them has to hit it.
 
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positiveEV

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
shadroch said:
Using a random Number Generator as they do,the odds of a jackpot being hit on the first spin after a Jackpot is exactly the same as on any other spin.The exceptions being when a jackpot has to be hit at a certain level.In that event,the closer you get to the drop dead point,the better your chances of hitting it.But the only way to be certain of hitting it is for a team to control every machine. Then one of them has to hit it.
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But if you take the number of spins it takes for each jackpot to be hit and average it out, it should pretty close to the actual odds of getting the jackpot if you have a large enough sample.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
asiafever said:
But if you take the number of spins it takes for each jackpot to be hit and average it out, it should pretty close to the actual odds of getting the jackpot if you have a large enough sample.
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No,it shouldn't. Its a random generator.Now if you want to track every spin for 1,000 jackpots,it might give you a trend towards the amount of spins between jackpots,but it won't give you the odds of hitting it.
 
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positiveEV

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
shadroch said:
No,it shouldn't. Its a random generator.Now if you want to track every spin for 1,000 jackpots,it might give you a trend towards the amount of spins between jackpots,but it won't give you the odds of hitting it.
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The odds of hitting a number at the roulette wheel is 1/38. If you track the number of spins it takes to hit a 1 (or any other number) you should get closer and closer to 38. Of course when odds are one out of many thousands it might be longer but it's still doable, but it would be a considerable waste of time.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
EasyRhino said:
The analogy would be waiting until the powerball jackpot is large enough to justify the astronomical odds against winning it.
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I don't think that would ever happen considering you have to factor in taxes, and the chance that someone else could win and you'd have to split the winnings, etc. The jackpot would have to be MASSIVE to be +EV, it's probably not even worth figuring out because the variance is so huge anyway. The lottery will never be a great AP, unless you find a different way than this.
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
The lottery will always be a sucker play. But I'd rather have a one in a billion shot at winning fifty million,than having the same odds but the prize is only ten million
 
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