AP's Most profitable games

[Brock Windsor]

In this thread I am hoping I can gain some insight from very knowledgeable AP's as to what they think the most profitable advantage games are based on time taken to find/gain an advantage and value from exploiting it. Please consider insights you have gained from other professionals. Hopefully this will point me where to look for additional advantages without exposing any specific secrets. In order my most profitable advantage games in the last 6months are:
Spanish 21
Three Card Poker
Blackjack
Craps (presumed advantage, sample size small)
Video Poker
Roulette
Carribean Stud (advantage on jackpot only, knowledge of two cards providing no advantage)
Big Six Wheel (believe to be playable with advantage but no + results. Sample size small)
NO ADVANTAGE FOUND FOR GAMES BELOW:
Bacarrat/Mini-Bac, Let It Ride, Pai Gow, War, Slots, Sic Bo, Texas Hold'em Bonus, Ultimate Hold'em, as well as sports/horse betting and the poker room I have had no advantage.
BW

 

[moo321]

You can hole card Let It Ride and that Texas Hold'em game. And I'm fairly confident that anyone could at least learn poker enough to grind $5 an hour out of the $3-6 game.

 

[Brock Windsor]

You can hole card Let It Ride and that Texas Hold'em game. And I'm fairly confident that anyone could at least learn poker enough to grind $5 an hour out of the $3-6 game.

I'm aware you can hole card any game, they're just rare to find. What I meant was that in 6months I have not seen a dealer exposing hole cards in Let It Ride, so I would think searching all the Let It Ride dealers on the strip over 6hours would be lower EV then card counting BJ for 6 hours. I want to know at what games AP's are spending most of their time. For instance, I play three card poker almost every time I go to a casino.
BW

 

[moo321]

And, in terms of an hourly rate with the same risk of ruin for a given bankroll, I think Limit Hold'em is often the best game for an AP. At a certain point ($40-80?) it drops off, and blackjack takes the lead. But with like 2 grand, $3-6 limit would make you WAY more than counting. No-limit is always dicey because of bankroll fluctuations.

 

[Brock Windsor]

And, in terms of an hourly rate with the same risk of ruin for a given bankroll, I think Limit Hold'em is often the best game for an AP. At a certain point ($40-80?) it drops off, and blackjack takes the lead. But with like 2 grand, $3-6 limit would make you WAY more than counting. No-limit is always dicey because of bankroll fluctuations.

I will assume you play this game purely from a mathematical standpoint and are making money off all the other weak players that pay too much money to see more cards. More what I am seeking is advantages over the house rather than weak poker players. I find that more rewarding. Though if I saw a poker dealer exposing cards or noticed a marked deck I would be tempted to play. I think I know enough about estimating pot odds and poker basics that I could beat the house rake + a couple percentage points, but Im looking for more advanced strategies that allow you to take the randomness out of games of chance.
BW

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

In this thread I am hoping I can gain some insight from very knowledgeable AP's as to what they think the most profitable advantage games are based on time taken to find/gain an advantage and value from exploiting it. Please consider insights you have gained from other professionals. Hopefully this will point me where to look for additional advantages without exposing any specific secrets. In order my most profitable advantage games in the last 6months are:
Spanish 21
Three Card Poker
Blackjack
Craps (presumed advantage, sample size small)
Video Poker
Roulette
Carribean Stud (advantage on jackpot only, knowledge of two cards providing no advantage)
Big Six Wheel (believe to be playable with advantage but no + results. Sample size small)
NO ADVANTAGE FOUND FOR GAMES BELOW:
Bacarrat/Mini-Bac, Let It Ride, Pai Gow, War, Slots, Sic Bo, Texas Hold'em Bonus, Ultimate Hold'em, as well as sports/horse betting and the poker room I have had no advantage.
BW

clearly there is something im not seeing here.. you can count cards with all the card games, but how do you get an advantage for craps? carribean stud has like a 5% house edge, so im thinking it would be very hard to overcome.. roulette? are we talking biased wheels or something here? and with video poker, are you including comps, or are you talking about +ev machines which are very hard to find these days (best i have ever seen was 99.9% deuces in indiana (no more), and i currently play a sweet full pay progressive jacks bank).. isnt 3 card poker hard to beat? it has like a 3% house edge right? if your going to count cards, do it at blackjack i would i think.. i thot that texas holdem and sports betting was very profitable if you are really into it? after playing vp again, i have realized that blackjack bores me, which sucks, because i just learned to count, and can easily do it, but boredom and bankroll are my 2 problems, so i would definitely be down for playing another game in the casino if i can get the house edge below .4%, so im interested in this thread.. i think it would be best to assume no hole carding or biased wheels, because those are not common at all, whereas something like card counting is almost guaranteed in every casino

 

[Sonny]

carribean stud has like a 5% house edge, so im thinking it would be very hard to overcome…isnt 3 card poker hard to beat? it has like a 3% house edge right?

Remember, the house edge has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. You’re beating the cards/dice/wheel/dealer, not the game.

if your going to count cards, do it at blackjack i would i think..

The other games use strategies other than counting cards.

i think it would be best to assume no hole carding or biased wheels, because those are not common at all, whereas something like card counting is almost guaranteed in every casino

That’s exactly the initial question in this post. Is it better to count cards for a small but guaranteed EV or spend most of your time looking for a high EV opportunity that you may not find? That’s a tough question. You really have to know which techniques are the most useful in the given situation and decide how to proceed from there. The more options you can rule out the closer you’ll come to your final answer. If you're only going to be in a particular casino for a short time then you'll need to do some speed-scouting.

-Sonny-

 

[Praying Mantis]

AP Opportunities

I suggest that what is posted in this forum to be in very generalistic terms.

Yes, there are other AP opportunities other than counting blackjack, but they shouldn't be discussed in any detail here or at any other site where there is open membership.

AP play is something we have to protect, especially since so much of it has been exposed and many of those plays are not longer available because of it.

If you want to find out about other plays, you need to find other APs and get to know them and once they feel comfortable with you, you will learn of other opportunities.

Personally, I think a thread of this type of information shouldn't even be on the internet...JMHO.

Regards,
PM

 

[moo321]

I suggest that what is posted in this forum to be in very generalistic terms.

Yes, there are other AP opportunities other than counting blackjack, but they shouldn't be discussed in any detail here or at any other site where there is open membership.

AP play is something we have to protect, especially since so much of it has been exposed and many of those plays are not longer available because of it.

If you want to find out about other plays, you need to find other APs and get to know them and once they feel comfortable with you, you will learn of other opportunities.

Personally, I think a thread of this type of information shouldn't even be on the internet...JMHO.

Regards,
PM

No one has revealed anything secret. Casinos already know about hole-carding and dice control.

 

[Brock Windsor]

That’s exactly the initial question in this post. Is it better to count cards for a small but guaranteed EV or spend most of your time looking for a high EV opportunity that you may not find? That’s a tough question. You really have to know which techniques are the most useful in the given situation and decide how to proceed from there. The more options you can rule out the closer you’ll come to your final answer. If you're only going to be in a particular casino for a short time then you'll need to do some speed-scouting.
-Sonny-

Again words of wisdom and clarity in interpretation of originators intent from our moderator. Without jeopardizing anything as Praying Mantis has requested, I'm seeking simply to be pointed towards games an AP would pay close attention to because of their profit potential and frequency of advantage occuring (without breaking the law). The method by which this game is to be beaten I will arrive at on my own. I do not have friends in the AP community that share these secrets with me personally, hence why I have tapped into the resources in this virtual community.
BW

 

[Praying Mantis]

Finding Games for Profit

Again words of wisdom and clarity in interpretation of originators intent from our moderator. Without jeopardizing anything as Praying Mantis has requested, I'm seeking simply to be pointed towards games an AP would pay close attention to because of their profit potential and frequency of advantage occuring (without breaking the law). The method by which this game is to be beaten I will arrive at on my own.
BW

This is fine. My concern is that when talking about various forms of play, a little TOO MUCH information will come out...

Having said that, just about all games should be paid close attention for possible profit. This you can do without having others tell you on an open forum.

Regards,
PM

 

[RJT]

This is fine. My concern is that when talking about various forms of play, a little TOO MUCH information will come out...

Having said that, just about all games should be paid close attention for possible profit. This you can do without having others tell you on an open forum.

Regards,
PM

All the techniques discussed so far have plenty of information freely avalible in various publicied versions. The only real damage that could be done now would be if someone was dumb enough to start talking about specific opportunities in specified (even roughly) places. Otherwise, nothing can really be said that's not already out there.

RJT.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

In this thread I am hoping I can gain some insight from very knowledgeable AP's as to what they think the most profitable advantage games are based on time taken to find/gain an advantage and value from exploiting it. Please consider insights you have gained from other professionals.

THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN ON A PUBLIC BOARD. You might get some already published information from self-prclaimed AP's here, but any "Real" AP will keep this type of information close to his chest and share it ONLY within his "inner circle" of AP's.

gg

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Again words of wisdom and clarity in interpretation of originators intent from our moderator. Without jeopardizing anything as Praying Mantis has requested, I'm seeking simply to be pointed towards games an AP would pay close attention to because of their profit potential and frequency of advantage occuring (without breaking the law). The method by which this game is to be beaten I will arrive at on my own. I do not have friends in the AP community that share these secrets with me personally, hence why I have tapped into the resources in this virtual community.
BW

The first thing you may be interested in exploring is promotion abuse.

You have the right idea about the size of the advantage and frequency of advantage being critical- one additional thing you left out is variance of that advantage. There are games that can be played with a greater advantage than counting blackjack, but because of the higher variance you have to bet a smaller proportion of your bankroll than you would in blackjack, thus lowering your win rate.

 

[zengrifter]

These are my notations as to whether an advantage can be gotten. zg

------------
Spanish 21 NO
Three Card Poker YES - 3%
Blackjack YES
Craps (presumed advantage, sample size small) YES 1%+
Video Poker YES
Roulette YES
Carribean Stud (advantage on jackpot only, knowledge of two cards providing no advantage) YES
Big Six Wheel (believe to be playable with advantage but no + results. Sample size small) YES
-------------------------------
Bacarrat/Mini-Bac YES, Let It Ride YES, Pai Gow YES, War NO, Slots YES, Sic Bo NO, Texas Hold'em Bonus ?, Ultimate Hold'em ?, as well as sports/horse betting YES and the poker room YES

 

[Brock Windsor]

These are my notations as to whether an advantage can be gotten. zg

------------
Spanish 21 NO
Three Card Poker YES - 3%
Blackjack YES
Craps (presumed advantage, sample size small) YES 1%+
Video Poker YES
Roulette YES
Carribean Stud (advantage on jackpot only, knowledge of two cards providing no advantage) YES
Big Six Wheel (believe to be playable with advantage but no + results. Sample size small) YES
-------------------------------
Bacarrat/Mini-Bac YES, Let It Ride YES, Pai Gow YES, War NO, Slots YES, Sic Bo NO, Texas Hold'em Bonus ?, Ultimate Hold'em ?, as well as sports/horse betting YES and the poker room YES

Your reply is appreciated and I will contradict two opinions. First, I am quite sure and I think you will agree that hole carding Spanish 21 is a significant advantage. Secondly I believe "Casino War" should lend itself to extremely skilled sequencing plays if no other advantage than this. Frequency of finding these advantages is another story. Perhaps to narrow my seach I will ask ZG (and I'm sure others will have decenting opinion) what would be your game of choice should blackjack be removed from all casinos?
BW

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Remember, the house edge has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. You’re beating the cards/dice/wheel/dealer, not the game.



The other games use strategies other than counting cards.



That’s exactly the initial question in this post. Is it better to count cards for a small but guaranteed EV or spend most of your time looking for a high EV opportunity that you may not find? That’s a tough question. You really have to know which techniques are the most useful in the given situation and decide how to proceed from there. The more options you can rule out the closer you’ll come to your final answer. If you're only going to be in a particular casino for a short time then you'll need to do some speed-scouting.

-Sonny-

ok, but i dont consider hole carding, bias wheels, bad dealers, or other rare occurances, because none of those are reliable at all.. but im pretty sure the house edge does matter to an extent, its not totally irrelevant, for instance if a game had a 10% house edge, i highly doubt any form of card counting or anything like that could beat it, but i know what you mean, a game with a .5% house edge may be able to be easier to beat than a game with a .35% house edge (bj compared to spanish 21 for instance)

I suggest that what is posted in this forum to be in very generalistic terms.

Yes, there are other AP opportunities other than counting blackjack, but they shouldn't be discussed in any detail here or at any other site where there is open membership.

AP play is something we have to protect, especially since so much of it has been exposed and many of those plays are not longer available because of it.

If you want to find out about other plays, you need to find other APs and get to know them and once they feel comfortable with you, you will learn of other opportunities.

Personally, I think a thread of this type of information shouldn't even be on the internet...JMHO.

Regards,
PM

to that i say PFFFF

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

These are my notations as to whether an advantage can be gotten. zg

------------
Spanish 21 NO
Three Card Poker YES - 3%
Blackjack YES
Craps (presumed advantage, sample size small) YES 1%+
Video Poker YES
Roulette YES
Carribean Stud (advantage on jackpot only, knowledge of two cards providing no advantage) YES
Big Six Wheel (believe to be playable with advantage but no + results. Sample size small) YES
-------------------------------
Bacarrat/Mini-Bac YES, Let It Ride YES, Pai Gow YES, War NO, Slots YES, Sic Bo NO, Texas Hold'em Bonus ?, Ultimate Hold'em ?, as well as sports/horse betting YES and the poker room YES

could you explain how each of those games is beaten? and reliably too, not like something illegal or rare.. i know about video poker (if you can find the +EV, which is illegal in some states), obviously bj, but what im confused about is you say spanish 21 isnt beatable; it has a lower edge than most bj games if its s17 with "full rules" (my term) and you can count cards, and speaking of counting cards, how did you get 3% for 3 card poker? does counting cards really give you that much of an advantage? the other games i have no idea where u got the advantage

 

[moo321]

You said holecarding isn't reliable. But it is. There are plenty of hole-carding opportunities.

 

[Sonny]

but im pretty sure the house edge does matter to an extent, its not totally irrelevant, for instance if a game had a 10% house edge, i highly doubt any form of card counting or anything like that could beat it

You’re right, the house edge does matter to some extent. But there are several card games and side bets that have over a 10% advantage that can be beaten with card counting. It really depends on the game, not the house edge.

could you explain how each of those games is beaten? and reliably too, not like something illegal or rare..

That is exactly the kind of information that we are not going to post on a public forum. If the casinos find out how we’re beating their games they will “fix” them. Any information about specific ways to beat those games (other than information already widely published) should be kept secret. That’s exactly what Praying Mantis told us not to do!

-Sonny-