Aqueduct Sunday 3/4

[traynor]

Mar4 Aqueduct R01
91 - #1 Speedjama
87 - #5 KetchUpBoy
83 - #3 EmergingSpirit
Place Key - (#2 KarakorumPatriot)

Mar4 Aqueduct R02
95 - #1A SingMeBackHome
89 - #4 FlushingMeadows
81 - #7 HighStakesHoldem
Place Key - (#1 LethalWeapon)

Mar4 Aqueduct R03
92 - #4 RicardoA
90 - #3 DiligentGambler
82 - #2 Drizzly
Place Key - (#5 TakingtheRedeye)

Mar4 Aqueduct R04
95 - #8 OdettaOne
90 - #7 MySongtoYou
84 - #6 Mia
Place Key - (#2 TexasStarlet)

Mar4 Aqueduct R05
94 - #7 ReturntoTiffany
87 - #1 GracieLou
81 - #3 SweetColors
Place Key - (#4 CastowayGirl)

Mar4 Aqueduct R06
95 - #1A UnforgettableRose
87 - #8 IndianWarDress
82 - #7 SamanthaO
Place Key - (#1 DeputyPrincess)

Mar4 Aqueduct R07
91 - #6 GoJerseyGinny
90 - #8 HolyKryptonite
82 - #4 PreciseLady
Place Key - (#3 FiveSiblings)

Mar4 Aqueduct R08
95 - #2 HerRoyalNibs
89 - #9 ToweringEscape
83 - #3 SlewMotion
Place Key - (#11 MagnoliaJackson)

Mar4 Aqueduct R09
91 - #6 Yourturntoyield
90 - #5 LetsGetGoing
84 - #3 SmartasaTack
Place Key - (#7 SouthernCreek)

Good Luck

 

[ChefJJ]

What does "Place Key" mean?

thanks

good luck

 

[traynor]

What does "Place Key" mean?

thanks

good luck

The selections are derived from two completely separate and distinct regression models. The "Win Keys" are the entries listed with numerical ratings preceding them. In general, ANY of the three are good bets at odds of 5/1 or better.

A number of our Professional subscribers who prefer win bets exclusively dutch any or all of the three entries that offer odds of 5/1 or better near post time. ("dutching" refers to making multiple win bets on different entries in the same race.)

Similarly, subscribers who prefer Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers use the Win Keys to build tickets. Depending on the circumstances, odds, and probabilities, those bettors may include the Place Key in Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.

The Place Key is ordinarily used as the place position in exactas with the Win Keys in the win position. Because the Win Keys are not listed in projected order of finish, the standard strategy is to bet any or all of the Win Keys to win with the Place Key to place in exactas (a $6 bet in most cases).

The caveat is that exacta bets are only profitable above a specific cutoff point in the odds available. For this model, the cutoff point is 12/1--if the post time odds on any exacta combination are less than 12/1, that combination is ignored and not bet.

Lastly, the Place Key is so designated because, although it wins a number of races, it rarely offers value in those races. Specifically, the payoffs when the Place Key wins are rarely worth betting. There may be a good return in the occasional race, but over time, if you bet the Place Key on top in exactas, your return will vary between 84% and 89%, depending on the track. (For every dollar bet, you only get 84 to 89 cents back.)

Good Luck

 

[ChefJJ]

The selections are derived from two completely separate and distinct regression models. The "Win Keys" are the entries listed with numerical ratings preceding them. In general, ANY of the three are good bets at odds of 5/1 or better.

A number of our Professional subscribers who prefer win bets exclusively dutch any or all of the three entries that offer odds of 5/1 or better near post time. ("dutching" refers to making multiple win bets on different entries in the same race.)

Similarly, subscribers who prefer Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers use the Win Keys to build tickets. Depending on the circumstances, odds, and probabilities, those bettors may include the Place Key in Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.

The Place Key is ordinarily used as the place position in exactas with the Win Keys in the win position. Because the Win Keys are not listed in projected order of finish, the standard strategy is to bet any or all of the Win Keys to win with the Place Key to place in exactas (a $6 bet in most cases).

The caveat is that exacta bets are only profitable above a specific cutoff point in the odds available. For this model, the cutoff point is 12/1--if the post time odds on any exacta combination are less than 12/1, that combination is ignored and not bet.

Lastly, the Place Key is so designated because, although it wins a number of races, it rarely offers value in those races. Specifically, the payoffs when the Place Key wins are rarely worth betting. There may be a good return in the occasional race, but over time, if you bet the Place Key on top in exactas, your return will vary between 84% and 89%, depending on the track. (For every dollar bet, you only get 84 to 89 cents back.)

Good Luck

So you use the Place Key for wheel exacta bets in conjunction with your win keys?

Cool.

good luck

 

[traynor]

So you use the Place Key for wheel exacta bets in conjunction with your win keys?

Cool.

good luck

Yes, but ordinarily on the bottom. That is a little complex--if the "primary" bets (Win Keys to Place Key) are 6 units or more, then reversing the Place Key to the Win Keys for 1 unit is appropriate. If you are betting the same amount on each combination, the reverses are not especially profitable. The idea behind the 6 to 1 ratio for reverses is that when the primary bets lose, you have a good shot at recovering the bet (plus a little profit) if the reverse hits.
Good Luck