Are AP`s just advanced ploppies?

[tezzadiver]

I`m sure I have opened myself for a massive flaming here but so be it.

Let`s start off with AP`s. What is the greatest difference between an AP and a Ploppy. Knowledge we would say.
So lets say a complete blackjack numpty plays with a a 10% edge against him. This is someone who plays by hunches etc.
Our second ploppy is the Basic strategist who now plays perfect strategy( well most of the time....), so we now looking at approx -0.5% (deck dependant)

Then we have our proficient card counter- Who tadadadadadadaadaaaaaa plays at a maximum 4-5 % advantage at extremely high counts,probably only seen for 1 % of the session.

It`s amazing how many times I have watched ploppies betting the max, making numerous strategy mistakes, milking the side bets and generally playing like complete muppets.
Yet the times I have seen them walk out with enormous wins, obviously due to `luck` has been numerous on plenty of occasions.
At the same point, revelling in my own superiority as a counter, I`ve laughed at them, put them down(in my mind) and just considered them general idiots.

Gamblers is the word that comes to mind. But I guess that`s what I am - a ploppy with a 4-5% edge( 1% of the time). Which will make me a winner over x amount of million of hands(theoretically).
Unless I`m on the extreme end of standard deviation.

At the end of the day I am convinced it is luck that will make or break me( Why can`t I be the one who has that 100 session upswing?- illogical of course.)

Because I will not play 1 million hands or more.

As an `AP` I`v e sat at BJ tables for about 500 hours. Not much many would say- and not nearly enough to establish hourly winrate etc. I`ve played a solid hi-lo count with 40 indexes. Wooooopeeeeee Dooooo.

And I`ve made 250 units( happy about that)
But why do we always curse when the `ploppies` win unlikely bets ,massive odds on PP side bets they should`nt be playing but the Blackjack Gods smile upon them, as they walk out the casino with their magnificent winnings.

They are gambling idiots we say, But are we not all gambling idiots with a 4-5% advantage?

Everytime I put my max bet out on a high count, I have still roughly a 50% chance that I will lose it.

So yes I guess I am just an advanced ploppy(with a edge):joker:

 

[ycming]

No, IMO gambling is when you put money on a game where the odds is stacked against you.

And when we have large amounts of money on the table, the odds are stacked against the house.

Ming

 

[tezzadiver]

No, IMO gambling is when you put money on a game where the odds is stacked against you.

And when we have large amounts of money on the table, the odds are stacked against the house.

Ming

I agree. That huge 4-5 % advantage we have as card counters.lol.

Yes the odds are in our favour- by a miniscule degree.:laugh:

I guess that cannot be termed as a gamble though.:laugh:

 

[plainplayer]

I`m sure I have opened myself for a massive flaming here but so be it.

Nah... A little philosophical navel-gazing is good for the soul. It keeps you honest and humble.

But why do we always curse when the `ploppies` win unlikely bets ,massive odds on PP side bets they should`nt be playing but the Blackjack Gods smile upon them, as they walk out the casino with their magnificent winnings.

I don't curse them, I cheer for them as they win and walk away wealthier. But the point to bear in mind is that they can't do it regularly, often, consistently, predictably.

I don't know about you, but I walk away with $CashOut greater than $BuyIn far, FAR more often than the other way around. Most "regular folks" are lucky to walk away with chips left to cash. So we who play with (some kind of) advantage aren't depending nearly as much on pure luck as the odds that are stacked against Joe Average.

Last evening, I watched a fellow flat-betting $50 and taking a vicious beating as a result. In the time I watched him, he may have lost $1000 or even $1500. I may have earned only a couple hundred last evening, but I just bet smaller, and anyhow I left on the plus side and he didn't. Life is good.

 

[sabre]

Gambling is betting money on an unknown outcome. Anyone who doesn't like that definition can take it up with Webster. APs gamble, make no mistake about it. There is no guarantee of a positive result.

 

[Sucker]

So yes I guess I am just an advanced ploppy(with a edge):joker:

By your reasoning, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are nothing more than advanced "hackers".

With this ability to twist logic and still keep a straight face about it, you should have the job of "White House Press Secretary".

 

[Sonny]

Taking the middle road

My opinions is somewhere between tezzadiver and sabre. Playing with a tiny advantage can still be considered gambling, and in fact many card counters are still gamblers. But to say that there is no guarantee of a positive result for any AP is not true. There are some pretty huge advantages out there, and even a few sure things. The term AP is a very broad description that refers to anyone who plays with an advantage. Some of those people are taking a big gamble, some are taking a small and well calculated gamble and others are not gambling at all. I've certainly seen a few players who would be considered advanced ploppies, but I would never paint all APs in that light.

-Sonny-

 

[Jack_Black]

They are gambling idiots we say, But are we not all gambling idiots with a 4-5% advantage?

No, we are not idiots. Idiots are those that play with a -10% advantage.

For sure I'm a gambler now. I'm pretty obsessive about going and playing. and when I play, I play for hours on end, or until they close the tables down.
but I'm also obsessive about learning how to optimize my game, how to extract more money from casinos, and about new math concepts.

I put myself in the same category as quant financiers. market players that try to gain an edge in the market with math. A lot of them still failed, and failed huge.

Ploppy has such a negative connotation. it's a gambling idiot. like the term fish for bad poker players. a lot of good poker players, don't play with an edge, they just know when to make the calls. So to say that AP stands for advanced ploppy is kinda demeaning.

I do love gambling now, but if I wasn't an AP and was losing tons of money at the tables, I would stop. whereas a ploppy would keep going until he lost his house and family.

We are good gamblers, that actually win money, instead of the bad gamblers that lose it all.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I`m sure I have opened myself for a massive flaming here but so be it.

Let`s start off with AP`s. What is the greatest difference between an AP and a Ploppy. Knowledge we would say.
So lets say a complete blackjack numpty plays with a a 10% edge against him. This is someone who plays by hunches etc.
Our second ploppy is the Basic strategist who now plays perfect strategy( well most of the time....), so we now looking at approx -0.5% (deck dependant)

Then we have our proficient card counter- Who tadadadadadadaadaaaaaa plays at a maximum 4-5 % advantage at extremely high counts,probably only seen for 1 % of the session.

It`s amazing how many times I have watched ploppies betting the max, making numerous strategy mistakes, milking the side bets and generally playing like complete muppets.
Yet the times I have seen them walk out with enormous wins, obviously due to `luck` has been numerous on plenty of occasions.
At the same point, revelling in my own superiority as a counter, I`ve laughed at them, put them down(in my mind) and just considered them general idiots.

Gamblers is the word that comes to mind. But I guess that`s what I am - a ploppy with a 4-5% edge( 1% of the time). Which will make me a winner over x amount of million of hands(theoretically).
Unless I`m on the extreme end of standard deviation.

At the end of the day I am convinced it is luck that will make or break me( Why can`t I be the one who has that 100 session upswing?- illogical of course.)

Because I will not play 1 million hands or more.

As an `AP` I`v e sat at BJ tables for about 500 hours. Not much many would say- and not nearly enough to establish hourly winrate etc. I`ve played a solid hi-lo count with 40 indexes. Wooooopeeeeee Dooooo.

And I`ve made 250 units( happy about that)
But why do we always curse when the `ploppies` win unlikely bets ,massive odds on PP side bets they should`nt be playing but the Blackjack Gods smile upon them, as they walk out the casino with their magnificent winnings.

They are gambling idiots we say, But are we not all gambling idiots with a 4-5% advantage?

Everytime I put my max bet out on a high count, I have still roughly a 50% chance that I will lose it.

So yes I guess I am just an advanced ploppy(with a edge):joker:

Every time I get in my car and go to the casino, there's a chance I'm going to get hit by a gasoline truck. Is driving gambling? Sure, getting out of bed is gambling. Drinking water is gambling.

Are we like the ploppies? Sure, is a sinner like a saint? No saint ever denied he was a sinner, but when he repents and seeks a higher life, he starts performing miracles which inspire the sinner and cause him to aspire to higher aspirations even if he doesn't understand the mechanism.

Probably all of us have gambled like ploppies at some time or another. I was never heavily into it, but I've done it. What it take to become an AP (saint) is the humility to turn away from sin (playing with a disadvantage) and seek higher knowledge (found here and in legitimate AP books) for salvation and victory over the devil (the casinos.) In this way we can appear to be performing the miraculous (winning money from casinos) but we're really just witnessing the natural results of adherence to Divine Law (math, nature, the design of the Universe.) A saint never claims his powers come from himself as opposed to the Divine, either.

We can directly observe these differences in the attitudes of the ploppies and the AP's at the table.

(Neither mocking nor endorsing any religious belief here, it was just the most apt analogy I could think of at the moment)

 

[blackchipjim]

oranges and apples?

Talking about painting pictures with a broad brush is a better analogy. You are either in it for the long run or not. Short term gains or losses are not the picture and never was. Do we take a beating? You bet we do and it causes many a AP to give up the ghost. Ploppies never give up and are always looking for that one day long ago when I got to play like an idiot and won tons of money. Most are complusive and they meet ruin a whole lot sooner then someone who methodically plods along with the winning edge. A better analogy Automonk would be the tortoise and the hare!:laugh:

 

[sagefr0g]

a while back i came to the conclusion that long as there is a risk of ruin then stuff is a gamble.

that said there is definitely a distinction to be drawn between types of gamblers. when it comes to AP vs the rest of the 99 some percent of gamblers that distinction is dramatic.
the 99% are 'action junkies' with out a plan of action or at least a plan of action based upon knowledge and information that is known to give an edge.
the AP does virtually nothing (save for scouting & creative thinking) unless the time is right (ie. an advantage exists), an AP is able to identify when an edge exists and knows the proper way to take advantage of that edge through valid knowledge.

further more of the 99% gambling crew, it's a relatively small percentage of them that spends a 'significant' amount of time in casinos.
for AP's it's the opposite, it's a relatively large percentage of them that spends a 'significant' amount of time in casinos.
that being the case, and the relative quantity of action being what it is amongst the various types can to some degree equalize the exposure to good black swan type events, that AP's often see the typical gambler experience. point being, AP's can enjoy not only the edge that they do, but perhaps a nice juicy black swan or two as well.

 

[V Lazlo]

I`m sure I have opened myself for a massive flaming here but so be it.


And I`ve made 250 units( happy about that)
But why do we always curse when the `ploppies` win unlikely bets ,massive odds on PP side bets they should`nt be playing but the Blackjack Gods smile upon them, as they walk out the casino with their magnificent winnings.

Just as a side note, remember that unless you are tracking one specific ploppy that big win probably falls well short of bringing him back to even. Eventually someone hits a lottery otherwise no one would play. Why do people bet on the long shot rather than handicapping at the track? The thought of instant riches brings them back time and time again.

 

[Dave2112]

Casinos are a dangerous place for people with dopamine problems. I wonder how many APs are smokers. A wildly proportionate number of ploppies are smokers. You hear of many supposed AP's talking about playing craps, roulette or slots for fun or cover. I wonder how many of them are (or were) smokers.

Another risk to AP's is the epinephrine and norepinephrine response to encountering heat. That can be addictive as well.

 

[tezzadiver]

Just as a side note, remember that unless you are tracking one specific ploppy that big win probably falls well short of bringing him back to even. Eventually someone hits a lottery otherwise no one would play. Why do people bet on the long shot rather than handicapping at the track? The thought of instant riches brings them back time and time again.

True. But the thought of me making a tidy profit keeps me coming back again too. And hey If I win the jackpot you won`t find me whining.lol:laugh:

 

[tezzadiver]

By your reasoning, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are nothing more than advanced "hackers".

With this ability to twist logic and still keep a straight face about it, you should have the job of "White House Press Secretary".

I did apply but was refused logically( I have no visa- being english and am colour blind)

I do press my secretary back home though:laugh:

 

[tezzadiver]

Every time I get in my car and go to the casino, there's a chance I'm going to get hit by a gasoline truck. Is driving gambling? Sure, getting out of bed is gambling. Drinking water is gambling.

Are we like the ploppies? Sure, is a sinner like a saint? No saint ever denied he was a sinner, but when he repents and seeks a higher life, he starts performing miracles which inspire the sinner and cause him to aspire to higher aspirations even if he doesn't understand the mechanism.

Probably all of us have gambled like ploppies at some time or another. I was never heavily into it, but I've done it. What it take to become an AP (saint) is the humility to turn away from sin (playing with a disadvantage) and seek higher knowledge (found here and in legitimate AP books) for salvation and victory over the devil (the casinos.) In this way we can appear to be performing the miraculous (winning money from casinos) but we're really just witnessing the natural results of adherence to Divine Law (math, nature, the design of the Universe.) A saint never claims his powers come from himself as opposed to the Divine, either.

We can directly observe these differences in the attitudes of the ploppies and the AP's at the table.

(Neither mocking nor endorsing any religious belief here, it was just the most apt analogy I could think of at the moment)

Love the religious connotations. My mother would like you.:joker:

 

[tezzadiver]

No, we are not idiots. Idiots are those that play with a -10% advantage.

For sure I'm a gambler now. I'm pretty obsessive about going and playing. and when I play, I play for hours on end, or until they close the tables down.
but I'm also obsessive about learning how to optimize my game, how to extract more money from casinos, and about new math concepts.

I put myself in the same category as quant financiers. market players that try to gain an edge in the market with math. A lot of them still failed, and failed huge.

Ploppy has such a negative connotation. it's a gambling idiot. like the term fish for bad poker players. a lot of good poker players, don't play with an edge, they just know when to make the calls. So to say that AP stands for advanced ploppy is kinda demeaning.

I do love gambling now, but if I wasn't an AP and was losing tons of money at the tables, I would stop. whereas a ploppy would keep going until he lost his house and family.

We are good gamblers, that actually win money, instead of the bad gamblers that lose it all.

Hmmm. Kind of a contradiction that last statement. So good gamblers win money and bad gamblers lose it.

A good gambler can lose many many sessions while a bad gambler may win his.Luck or blessed by the god of ploppies.

I take it you mean a gambler who gambles with no thought of loss or strategy?

Not all ploppies are compulsive gamblers. Many just have a flutter for the hell of it. But many others do have serious gambling issues I agree.

A better question would maybe be- How many AP`s are compulsive gamblers?
But live under the cloak of `advantage play`.

 

[Jack_Black]

Hmmm. Kind of a contradiction that last statement. So good gamblers win money and bad gamblers lose it.


A better question would maybe be- How many AP`s are compulsive gamblers?
But live under the cloak of `advantage play`.

I don't see the contradiction. if you good, you win. if you bad, you lose. Like anything else in life that's competitive.

there is nothing wrong with being passionate about a subject.

how many top CEOs are workaholics? But live under the cloak of "being successful?"

There is nothing wrong with gambling until it becomes a problem. such as those I've met who still gamble after losing house and family. just as there is nothing wrong with getting drunk as long as no one is hurt.

 

[psyduck]

I believe all those big name players at High Stakes Poker are highly skilled. As far as I know, none of them made it to the final table at World Series of Poker. I think luck does play as a big factor cluding in BJ. I know I will never reach the long run just playing a few hours a week. I do play based on the math, but have witnessed a lot of "ploppies" win big with mathematically wrong plays. I think it is because the advantage I can gain is just so small (about 1% at my current level).

 

[metronome]

Gentlemen, and Ladies,
We are still talking about a card game. Every member that posts a reply to this thread should ask themselves why they originally started to play this card game.
I do not believe anyone thought it would be a smart "investment", "off the top", so to speak.
There are other factors at work, for us all, an infinite number probably.
Sorry to plagiarize, but thats my take.... and the mileage will certainly vary.