Average Bet

[assume_R]

Trying to estimate my average bet, so I ran a bunch of simulations assuming I used to optimal Kelly betting, and got this general formula from excel's trendline.

Average Bet (units) = 0.98 * Spread^0.36
Chart and Data here: https://accounts.google.com/ServiceLogin?service=wise&passive=1209600&continue=https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AtkX-haR_Tt-dF9YR3VWVVBSMmtqRGxPMGt6Sk1HTUE&hl=en&pref=2&followup=https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc%

Note this is highly dependent on your penetration, rules, betting style, cover etc. etc. but it can be used as a starting point to guess what your average bet was with some degree of accuracy.

Edit: Data was for shoe games w/ Hi-Lo and KO.

 

[matt21]

i would suggest using QFIT's software for this - you can get started for less than $200.

Alternatively you should be able to approximate your average bet size by looking at the following variables. Frequency of each true count, bet size for each true count.
Eg if you bet $10 at 0 or -ve and this occurs 73% of the time, you bet $30 at TC+1 (11%), $65 at TC+2 (7.5%) etc etc then you can quickly compute your average bet size. then compare it with your method above.

I did this calculation once when calculating the EV for a particular promotion offered in a local joint. PM me if you need more info.

Good luck,
Matt