Backcounting....

[Homeschool]

St Patties day. Just happen to have other business at the same exit as the local joint, which I usually do not play at. Stop by and walk around for a little while, enjoying my tasty green beer, and notice a scruffy looking guy at one of the $25 minimum tables, or rather I notice the enormous stacks of chips in front of him. He's got 4 stacks of greens about a foot tall, along with a stack of blacks a little shorter.

I decide to watch him for a few minutes as he's sitting at 3rd base and playing 2 hands of about $250 each, using what seems to be some kind of a progression system. New shoe, count goes up substantially. A little over one deck played, count is +3 according to Red 7, which I know underestimates early in the shoe and over-estimates late. Oh BTW, 6d with about 1-1.25 cut off.

This guy proceeds to push in his chips to color, which causes me to start the debate. I have a chance to jump in at a pretty substantial advantage, with only 2 other players at the table, playing 1 hand each. However the $25 minimum is VERY steep for my level of play and I only have $100 in my pocket, which I really was not planning on gambling with. ( But it's not gambling if you know you're gonna win. Card counting is a foolproof system )

The guy cashes out $14,500. And supposedly is still down $2,000. Must be nice to have that kind of bankroll. Anyways, on to the story, I decided the count is too good to pass up. I cash in my measly $100 and place it on 2 spots at $50 each. Hey, I've got the advantage right? First round I make 2 good hands against a dealer stiff and win. I think of walking away but the count is still +2 so I figure why not push on, as my advantage is likely a little greater than that. Next round, same 2x$50, 9 and 4,4 vs 6! Feeling good knowing the dealer busts more with a 6 and I've got some promising hands I proceed to split the 4's (DAS) and pull 2 faces, and double the 9 pulling a 6. So now with these 3 stiffs all the dealer needs to do is come through with her end of the bargain. WRONG! She proceeds to pull a 4 card 18. Ouch! It hurts, and I mean hurts bad, but I just couldn't pass up the opportunity. But hey, I guess it's not so much whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game, right? Still sucks though :laugh: .

Oh well, I'll get them next time :whip:

Homeschool

 

[SleightOfHand]

St Patties day. Just happen to have other business at the same exit as the local joint, which I usually do not play at. Stop by and walk around for a little while, enjoying my tasty green beer, and notice a scruffy looking guy at one of the $25 minimum tables, or rather I notice the enormous stacks of chips in front of him. He's got 4 stacks of greens about a foot tall, along with a stack of blacks a little shorter.

I decide to watch him for a few minutes as he's sitting at 3rd base and playing 2 hands of about $250 each, using what seems to be some kind of a progression system. New shoe, count goes up substantially. A little over one deck played, count is +3 according to Red 7, which I know underestimates early in the shoe and over-estimates late. Oh BTW, 6d with about 1-1.25 cut off.

This guy proceeds to push in his chips to color, which causes me to start the debate. I have a chance to jump in at a pretty substantial advantage, with only 2 other players at the table, playing 1 hand each. However the $25 minimum is VERY steep for my level of play and I only have $100 in my pocket, which I really was not planning on gambling with. ( But it's not gambling if you know you're gonna win. Card counting is a foolproof system )

The guy cashes out $14,500. And supposedly is still down $2,000. Must be nice to have that kind of bankroll. Anyways, on to the story, I decided the count is too good to pass up. I cash in my measly $100 and place it on 2 spots at $50 each. Hey, I've got the advantage right? First round I make 2 good hands against a dealer stiff and win. I think of walking away but the count is still +2 so I figure why not push on, as my advantage is likely a little greater than that. Next round, same 2x$50, 9 and 4,4 vs 6! Feeling good knowing the dealer busts more with a 6 and I've got some promising hands I proceed to split the 4's (DAS) and pull 2 faces, and double the 9 pulling a 6. So now with these 3 stiffs all the dealer needs to do is come through with her end of the bargain. WRONG! She proceeds to pull a 4 card 18. Ouch! It hurts, and I mean hurts bad, but I just couldn't pass up the opportunity. But hey, I guess it's not so much whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game, right? Still sucks though :laugh: .

Oh well, I'll get them next time :whip:

Homeschool

The strategy for the game assumes you are able to split up to 4 hands. What if you got another 4 on that split 4? Or a 5? Then you are losing a lot of EV since you really aren't playing RS4 or DAS. If you had such a small amount, you shouldn't have played.

 

[Machinist]

. LOL.... yea.. well ....that really was a little short BR HS lol
In fact i wonder if that might not be the shortest bankroll ever ........:whip:
Wait till i tell the wifey Homey!!!!!!!!!!!!! You know how much sheetrock that could have bought..... wait oh yeah you do!!!!!!!!!!!

Mach

 

[Sucker]

The most important trait a card counter (or ANY gambler) can possess is discipline, especially when it comes to bankroll management. Sounds like you may need a little bit of work in that area.

And no, that's not even CLOSE to the shortest BR ever.

 

[Homeschool]

I shouldn't say $100 is my entire BR, I just didn't happen to have anymore cash on me at the time. Even at a $5 or $10 table I would have had almost as many "units" in play.

And you're right SOH, without the cash to split again my advantage was likely a little less than I thought. Good point.


And as far as the "discipline" statement, at least I actually realize the BR requirements and ROR, especially for a $25 min table. This was actually the first time I have played anything higher than a $5 unit. I was not planning on playing for any extended period of time. Play with the advantage and leave.

By saying money I "hadn't planned to spend on gambling" I do not mean I was using the rent money to play BJ, just that I hadn't planned on playing. Maybe a better statement would have been that I hadn't brought a sufficient BR for such a unit size, or any unit size for that matter. I actually was there to do some recon for another type of game, with the ability to withdraw money from the ATM to cover that, if needed. I just didn't have it on me at the time and wasn't going to walk away to get it, by then the opportunity would have been gone.

My purpose of this post was not to ask if I did the right thing, it was to tell the story of having things looking good and getting some cards that didn't help me out. Oh well, life goes on, NBD......

Had I taken the time to spell all this out, it wouldn't have been a very good story, at least not very interesting. IMO.

Homeschool

 

[sagefr0g]

.... New shoe, count goes up substantially. A little over one deck played, count is +3 according to Red 7, which I know underestimates early in the shoe and over-estimates late. Oh BTW, 6d with about 1-1.25 cut off.

... However the $25 minimum is VERY steep for my level of play and I only have $100 in my pocket, which I really was not planning on gambling with. ( But it's not gambling if you know you're gonna win. Card counting is a foolproof system )

...Anyways, on to the story, I decided the count is too good to pass up. I cash in my measly $100 and place it on 2 spots at $50 each. Hey, I've got the advantage right? First round I make 2 good hands against a dealer stiff and win. I think of walking away but the count is still +2 so I figure why not push on, as my advantage is likely a little greater than that. Next round, same 2x$50, 9 and 4,4 vs 6! Feeling good knowing the dealer busts more with a 6 and I've got some promising hands I proceed to split the 4's (DAS) and pull 2 faces, and double the 9 pulling a 6. So now with these 3 stiffs all the dealer needs to do is come through with her end of the bargain. WRONG! She proceeds to pull a 4 card 18.l

just i wonder if you was playing a five dollar table, at plus two (red 7, erhh i don't know the specifics of that count, do you use the true edge adjustment method Snyder writes about?) would you have bet that much?
two hands at $50 each? i mean how does that fit in with your ROR? is that how you'd of played that scenario on a five dollar table?
point being, did you maybe over bet a bit?
just wondering on that, no big deal.
i mean, this story kind of reminds me of the time i scavenged a ploppies double down opportunity on a hundred dollar bet he made, thing is my top bet for my bankroll at the time was no where near a hundred dollars, lol.
and of course i lost the bet.

Ouch! It hurts, and I mean hurts bad, but I just couldn't pass up the opportunity. But hey, I guess it's not so much whether you win or lose, it's how you play the game, right? Still sucks though :laugh: .

Oh well, I'll get them next time :whip:

Homeschool

yeah it does hurt. well you made the play though and long as you weren't overly stretching it ROR wise i think you can view it as a legit action.
thing is though if it hurts, and maybe this is controversial, but i think from what you wrote, where you sort of didn't want to do it, well maybe you had a premonition that it might could hurt, lol.
so but the point is you could if you chose to bet less, maybe one spot of twenty five or two spots of twenty five, what ever.
i mean really, it's your choice, sort of thing.
i mean just don't fall into the trap of because theory says you got to do so and so far as betting goes that you have to do it.
i mean heck, if you know it's gonna make you miserable if things don't go according to expectation, it's not gonna hurt the grand scheme of things if every so often under some unusual circumstances (such as your story) that you make some risk averse decision because of personal reasons sort of thing.
controversial, i know.
what ever, good story homey.

 

[Homeschool]

I realize it was a little bit of an overbet but I wanted to be able to play 2 hands, which of course requires the $50/ea. Guess I failed to consider how my usual spreadding to 2 hands would affect betting. Oh well, chalk another one up to experience.........just like the "even bets for insurance purposes" :laugh:


It actually didn't hurt that bad but I was trying to get into the story telling mode. Guess i'm no CP

And i've done dumber things with $100 before


Homeschool

 

[creeping panther]

Homey

I realize it was a little bit of an overbet but I wanted to be able to play 2 hands, which of course requires the $50/ea. Guess I failed to consider how my usual spreadding to 2 hands would affect betting. Oh well, chalk another one up to experience.........just like the "even bets for insurance purposes" :laugh:


It actually didn't hurt that bad but I was trying to get into the story telling mode. Guess i'm no CP

And i've done dumber things with $100 before


Homeschool

I can understand you jumping in, cannot fault you for that.

Here is what I would have done in that situation, hit the 8, pulled the 18, doubled the 9, pulled a 19, I believe you would have had a winner. You were in a h-17 game with no LS or DDOSA, they have you in a box. But the pen was decent.

That guy with all the money, very, very possible he was still a loser. It is very possible to play a super 6d, like at I, and using perfect basic and a positive progression to kill the house...now add AP play to that and you are in for alot of excitment,,,,like using the Predator System.:grin:

Good story.

CP

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I can understand you jumping in, cannot fault you for that.

Here is what I would have done in that situation, hit the 8, pulled the 18, doubled the 9, pulled a 19, I believe you would have had a winner. You were in a h-17 game with no LS or DDOSA, they have you in a box. But the pen was decent.

That guy with all the money, very, very possible he was still a loser. It is very possible to play a super 6d, like at I, and using perfect basic and a positive progression to kill the house...now add AP play to that and you are in for alot of excitment,,,,like using the Predator System.:grin:

Good story.

CP

Just curious why would you not have split the 4s? Or is this assuming you have no DAS money.

Could very well have still been a loser though, from the original post it looked like there were a string of small cards after the two tens. I hope the original poster learned a lesson worth $100, a +2 count isn't worth overbetting your bankroll.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

And no, that's not even CLOSE to the shortest BR ever.

Yeah, I think Clark Cant's Couponomy writings define that, talking about riding around on his bicycle looking for change on the ground to play $1 match plays with.

 

[Sharky]

I would feel "buck neckid" walking into a store w/ $100.

Even if I'm not going to a store, if I don't have at least 5 bills on me I feel like my fly is open.

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[creeping panther]

4,s

Just curious why would you not have split the 4s? Or is this assuming you have no DAS money.

Could very well have still been a loser though, from the original post it looked like there were a string of small cards after the two tens. I hope the original poster learned a lesson worth $100, a +2 count isn't worth overbetting your bankroll.

Blue, splitting 4's against 6 at -1 or lower, double +4.


CP

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Blue, splitting 4's against 6 at -1 or lower, double +4.


CP

Wait you only split 4's at a count BELOW -1? I am confused.