Bad idea, good results

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#1
A while back I was playing on the Strip, overnight on a weekend. I play the Strip several times a month as part of my expanded rotation of spreading play amoung many casinos, and shifts. When I play the Strip, particularly at busier times, it is an opportunity for me to bump my max bet up past my normal just under $500 level, through that $500 threshold, to about $800, because of the larger action.

So on this particular night just as I jumped from $400 to $800 after a win, a pit guy who happened to be standing nearby, gave me a disapproving glance. I don't know what made me say it, but I looked directly at him and said "I am going to keep doubling until I lose". Well that insured that he stayed nearby watching, which was stupid. :(

So I won my $800 hand and bumped to $1600, where I received a double down hand. The pit guy actually seemed to be routing for me as he said "give him a 10". I didn't get a 10, but I did win the doubledown and attempted to bump to $3200. The table max was $3000 and that was all he would allow me to bet. I played 4 rounds at that table max winning 2, including a BJ, and had a push before I finally lost the last hand of the shoe. Having shown my full spread (and then some) I colored up and exited.

So several firsts for me. First time I played table max. First time I max bet at that level....I have only bet $1000 maybe 3 other times.

In hindsight, everything about this spur of the moment episode was a bad idea. While enough time has passed that, there doesn't appear to have been any consequenses of my actions, there very well could have been, even after the fact with a review of my play.

In addition there is the issue of variance. I play a preset spread and while this particular circumstance my preset limits are about double, jumping to this much higher max bet for only a very few hands like this invites extreme variance. While I was lucky and registered a nice win, I could just as easily have lost 5 figures and then spent the next.....I don't know how long, trying to win back at my normal much smaller spread. Even playing at an advantage (+EV for those rounds), playing a max bet almost 8 times my normal for just a handful of rounds, feels like gambling to me, because it is for only a few rounds. It just defies my whole, grind it out, approach.

Having had some time pass, I can only conclude, very bad idea, with very good results. Thought?
 
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DSchles

Well-Known Member
#2
"Having had some time pass, I can only conclude, very bad idea, with very good results. Thought?"

It was a very bad idea with very good results! :)

Just imagine that $3,000 bet becoming EIGHT bets, through splits and doubles. (Remember, you don't count eights, so matter how high the count, you can get eights at any time.) So, you have $24,000 on the felt. The count is plus a million, the dealer's upcard is a 6, he flips a ten in the hole and then hits it with ... a five! $48,000 swing on the turn of a single card. (See BJA3, page 9, THE Hand.)

Don
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#4
This is proof that progressions are the way to go! o_O

Your problem is you have a very bad habit of never shutting up, particularly in relation to a bunch of compulsive gambler morons on another so-called forum who joy in egging you on. This has now spread into your real life. Beware the consequences!
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#9
I'm just uncertain why you felt compelled to continue this progression just because you said you would. "Hey, this is getting a little rich for me! I can't afford to keep that up, I'm wussing out" would be easy to say (if anything). I don't think that would have any different impact on the pit.

Still, I'm happy your risky gamble paid off!
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#10
BoSox said:
Considering the situation that happened what was the relevance of the above quote?
BoSox, if you wanted to discuss this here, why did you cut and paste my entire post and reprint it at one of the troll forums. There is a reason, I posted this here, where real players participate and not the troll forum with all the trolls and hater. AND YOU KNEW THAT. If you wanted to legitimately discuss any part of this post, you could have done so here. What you did is extremely sleezy.

For those that may not know, BoSox has become one of those trolls at one of the troll forums, trolling and attacking me on almost a daily basis. I can not beleived he stooped this low.

I am now ignoring you on every forum. I want nothing more to do with you.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#11
johndoe said:
I'm just uncertain why you felt compelled to continue this progression just because you said you would. "Hey, this is getting a little rich for me! I can't afford to keep that up, I'm wussing out" would be easy to say (if anything). I don't think that would have any different impact on the pit.

Still, I'm happy your risky gamble paid off!
My answer: I don't know why I continued. In hindsight....

I freely admit (as per the title of thread). Bad idea....make that very bad idea (as per Don) that I got very lucky with.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#12
KewlJ said:
BoSox, if you wanted to discuss this here, why did you cut and paste my entire post and reprint it at one of the troll forums. There is a reason, I posted this here, where real players participate and not the troll forum with all the trolls and hater. AND YOU KNEW THAT. If you wanted to legitimately discuss any part of this post, you could have done so here. What you did is extremely sleezy.

For those that may not know, BoSox has become one of those trolls at one of the troll forums, trolling and attacking me on almost a daily basis. I can not beleived he stooped this low.

I am now ignoring you on every forum. I want nothing more to do with you.
Everyone should know that there are two sides to a story. Let's just say I do not like what Kj has said about my late wife. Continuing with what he has also said about me.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#14
21forme said:
Bosox, please keep your fight on the shit-hole site. That's what it's for. This is a BJ site.
Correction should be in order on your part 21forme as I did not bring any type of fight here. Thanks to Moses for pointing that out to me., yes 21 forme this also was said on another site.
 
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KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#16
Blitzkrieg said:
You're right KJ, that was reckless. As long as you've been playing BJ I thought you've bet table maximum before.
Well, No, I have never really bet table max before, except a very small casino that has a table max of $500. My whole game is about longevity and identifying and playing limits that are well tolerated, so table max is in direct conflict with that any way you cut it.

I do have the bankroll to safely play higher limits than I normally play, so that particular incident was only reckless in that it invited huge variance. Playing just a few hands like that is what invited that huge variance. Overall I have been playing some higher limits than usual last year and this year, because with masks and stuff, I can get away with it and it is an opportunity to make up for lost time and EV. But still my max bet is below the key $1000 threshold. So playing a max bet of $3000 for just one sesssion like that, just invites huge variance. Reckless is a good word. Another would be "gambling". Even with an advantage that is basically what it was. :rolleyes:
 
#17
KewlJ said:
Well, No, I have never really bet table max before, except a very small casino that has a table max of $500. My whole game is about longevity and identifying and playing limits that are well tolerated, so table max is in direct conflict with that any way you cut it.

I do have the bankroll to safely play higher limits than I normally play, so that particular incident was only reckless in that it invited huge variance. Playing just a few hands like that is what invited that huge variance. Overall I have been playing some higher limits than usual last year and this year, because with masks and stuff, I can get away with it and it is an opportunity to make up for lost time and EV. But still my max bet is below the key $1000 threshold. So playing a max bet of $3000 for just one sesssion like that, just invites huge variance. Reckless is a good word. Another would be "gambling". Even with an advantage that is basically what it was. :rolleyes:
Okay so you're in fact lying as you stated in your original post that, "So several firsts for me. First time I played table max." If you've bet $500 at a different casino and that was the table max bet then you have bet the table max bet before, before betting that $3000 table max bet. It seems like you're ashamed that $500 was your very first table maximum bet at BJ. You shouldn't have to be but then again it's not nice to start telling fibs. :mad:
 

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
#18
Heh... i've tried an idea called surrender betting. Start with a maximum bet and pretty much surrender any stiff, 17's & 18's vs 9,10,A.... I really looked foolish to everyone watching but made some money quickly :) 500 bet... lose = 250... lose again = 125... win 250, win again 500, win again 1000... lose 500... win 1000, win again 2000... win again 4000 =) lol Then lost it all counting :)
 
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