Bad players make the game worse for an AP

[psyduck]

I think if the player Wongs out but reenters the same shoe, Wonging should have higher hourly return because all he does is to avoid the disadvange hands. If the player waits for a new shuffle after Wonging out, then the hourly return depends on the TCs at which he enters and quits.

 

[zengrifter]

I think if the player Wongs out but reenters the same shoe, Wonging should have higher hourly return because all he does is to avoid the disadvange hands. If the player waits for a new shuffle after Wonging out, then the hourly return depends on the TCs at which he enters and quits.

Is that your answer to 'what is Jack_Black's confusion?' zg

 

[zengrifter]

let me rephrase that: if you were playing table max of $2000 play all vs $2000 wonging, [wonging] will destroy your EV.

Au contrair, mon ami. In your example the wonging HOURLY EV will markedly
improve. I think I know the source of your confusion. Anyone else? zg

Anyone? zg

 

[zengrifter]

I think if the player Wongs out but reenters the same shoe, Wonging should have higher hourly return because all he does is to avoid the disadvange hands. If the player waits for a new shuffle after Wonging out, then the hourly return depends on the TCs at which he enters and quits.

Incorrect answer BTW. Its technically correct but too selective.
It DOES hint at where Jblack's confusion lay. zg

 

[psyduck]

Incorrect answer BTW. Its technically correct but too selective.
It DOES hint at where Jblack's confusion lay. zg

Why do you call something technically correct incorrect when I was talking the technical aspect?

 

[zengrifter]

Why do you call something technically correct incorrect when I was talking the technical aspect?

Because you were addressing mine and Jblack's debate. Jblack says -"play all has "better EV than wong" -- your answer was not entirely correct relative to Jblack's numerous assertions but it does provide a clue as to how he either ran his sims wrong and/or misinterpreted his results that led to his statements -

... lets say you could play max $500 and no one will freak out about it, then play all vs wonging would be better for EV.

and although wonging helps tremendously with SCORE, ROR, etc. [but] it destroys EV.

And I am saying that I think I know the source of his confusion. THAT is what you (Psyduck) were addressing. But your answer did not resolve why Jblack is so far off. zg

 

[Jack_Black]

 

[zengrifter]

So Jblack, is it your sim - wrong - or misinterpretation - or both?
Or is it me showing my ignorance? z:laugh:g

 

[zengrifter]

Gawdzooks! There is an army of CV users running amok at this site.
Can anyone set us straight here? Other than QFIT?
Does play all really beat wonging at 6D? z:laugh:g

Good evening Mister and Missus America and all the ships at sea! Let's go to press!
Flash: Jblack using sophisticated software has proven that play-all strategy at 6-decks with
lower max bet beats wonging! More on this soon, stay tuned!

 

[alwayssplitaces]

Play-all has a higher hourly win rate only because in the sim shown, the max bet of $1000 is bet more often, at all counts above 5 with play-all or above 8 with wonging.

 

[zengrifter]

Play-all has a higher hourly win rate only because in the sim shown, the max bet of $1000 is bet more often, at all counts above 5 with play-all or above 8 with wonging.

Thats all?? I'm losing it! zg

 

[Jack_Black]

very interesting. changed wong in ramp to match play all ramp in the custom bets, and now wong in has better ev than play all. so why does cvcx calculate a non optimal ramp for wonging?

ROR has increased tremendously with this spread. a clue?

 

[zengrifter]

That is not the mistake I thought you made, though.
Until you showed the sims I thought that you weren't properly counting the neg-EV -0- bet hands as "played" (ie "seen") zg

 

[zengrifter]

Jblack, why don't you run sims where --

-- The betting is in real world amounts, and
-- The ramps are more identical

Example:
(use same TC ramp for both)

PLAY ALL --
25-25
75-75
100-100
200-200
300-300
500-500

WONG --
0-0
75-75
100-100
200-200
300-300
500-500

 

[Jack_Black]

Jblack, why don't you run sims where --

-- The betting is in real world amounts, and
-- The ramps are more identical

Example:
(use same TC ramp for both)

PLAY ALL --
25-25
75-75
100-100
200-200
300-300
500-500

WONG --
0-0
75-75
100-100
200-200
300-300
500-500

cvcx is an optimal ramp calculator. you give it the game parameters, and it generates the best betting ramp for that particular game.

I did match the ramps in the second post. that's why I said to look at the custom bet line. it was using play all's spread on a wonging game.

 

[zengrifter]

cvcx is an optimal ramp calculator. you give it the game parameters, and it generates the best betting ramp for that particular game.

Apparently NOT, assuming you set the sim correctly. What is the issue?
Whatever it is it has skewed your perception (ie that "2 other players reduce hourly EV by 75%") zg

 

[Jack_Black]

Apparently NOT, assuming you set the sim correctly. What is the issue?
Whatever it is it has skewed your perception (ie that "2 other players reduce hourly EV by 75%") zg

Oh please. I'm not the software designer. I'm also wondering why the program optimizes play all for the best EV, but optimizes wonging for the lowest ROR. but honestly, it all boils down to personal preference of more risk/reward or less of it.

the reduction of ev from other players entering is a completely separate issue. have you ever physically timed a table? The speed of the game slows down for sure, which in effect lowers your rounds/hr.

 

[zengrifter]

Oh please. I'm not the software designer. I'm also wondering why the program optimizes play all for the best EV, but optimizes wonging for the lowest ROR. but honestly, it all boils down to personal preference of more risk/reward or less of it.

QFIT or someone else respond please.

the reduction of ev from other players entering is a completely separate issue. have you ever physically timed a table? The speed of the game slows down for sure, which in effect lowers your rounds/hr.

That was how our conversation began - comparisons of hourly EV based on different #s
of players should factor in the necessary adjustment of your own #hands (see BJAttack). zg

 

[pit15]

Assuming holecarding is one of the techniques here, but how would you actually determine a specific value? Based on bet unit, etc. I guess. Any, it got me thinking, which is unusual before noon or so.

Very simple.

Expected hands per hour * bet size * expected advantage * how much of the shift is remaining

 

[Tarzan]

I can't see the forest because all those trees are in the way!

Bad players don't make the game difficult for AP's at all... they make it POSSIBLE! You NEED those crazy and stupid players in place emptying their wallets and playing in a manner that gives the casinos a much higher house advantage to keep them in business and content with their profitability, plain and simple. No profits means no reason to have the game! If every single player adhered to proper basic strategy and played conservatively, there would be little in it for the casino. Some of those "hunch luck crazy" players making horrific strategy and betting errors fill in the gaps for profitability!

It's not 1980 anymore and as it is the casinos have altered procedures and rules to whatever extent they can get away with to increase profitability and eliminate AP issues. An AP that was using some very basic counting method and turning a nice profit in 1980 would be up against a brick wall in today's games and would go broke in a hurry! It's just not like it once was. AP's are no longer any threat to the casinos, primarily because the procedural and rule changes have rendered the vast majority of games unplayable to begin for an AP. These days, you have to not only shop around for what games you play but employ advanced techniques and tactics flawlessly to gain just the tiniest bit of advantage with today's games. How many people can do this? Not very many...


When you see someone making disastrous strategy errors, betting irresponsibly, using some luck and hunch method rather than any common sense, etc... commend them, be grateful for them, feel blessed to have them around because they are insuring profitability for the casinos. Profitability means not having to jack up the house advantage beyond what they've already jacked it up to. The game has already become tough enough! Having enough of these sorts of players onboard possibly means having the game in place to begin with.