Bad Variance....

[winnawinna]

I just got back from a 10 hour session and lost 200+ units. Does this happen often? I had a great streak of positive sessions totalling over 700 units. This was a really bad one and it seemed that every time I had my big bets out, the dealer beat me. I feel like I need to get back out there again ASAP and get a winning session started. Its like you feel you have been defeated.

 

[Wookets]

I just got back from a 10 hour session and lost 200+ units. Does this happen often? I had a great streak of positive sessions totalling over 700 units. This was a really bad one and it seemed that every time I had my big bets out, the dealer beat me. I feel like I need to get back out there again ASAP and get a winning session started. Its like you feel you have been defeated.

A 200 unit loss is well within the realm of possibility. Before you get back out there, review your session and acknowledge any errors you may have made - especially ones relating to bet sizing.

 

[fwb]

Statistically it WILL happen as you start putting in more hours. Here is a short term portion from a sim I just ran of one of the best tables in the country, using no cover and a 1-25 spread.

Each block represents 100 hands (high and low points).

In the long run, your positive streaks will outweigh negative ones. This is why you should just focus on putting in as many quality hours as possible and avoid second guessing losses (as long as you know your play is strong).

Now, lets look at that same player, but in the long run (each block is 1000 hands):

Try to look at your career from the same perspective.

 

[winnawinna]

Statistically it WILL happen as you start putting in more hours. Here is a short term portion from a sim I just ran of one of the best tables in the country, using no cover and a 1-25 spread.

Each block represents 100 hands (high and low points).

In the long run, your positive streaks will outweigh negative ones. This is why you should just focus on putting in as many quality hours as possible and avoid second guessing losses (as long as you know your play is strong).

Now, lets look at that same player, but in the long run (each block is 1000 hands):

Try to look at your career from the same perspective.

Thank you for that graph...i know in the long run I will get ahead and I just thought back at ne of my losing sessions that was over 350 units. This one was hard because I think I was playing too high of stakes for my bankroll.

 

[paddywhack]

Thank you for that graph...i know in the long run I will get ahead and I just thought back at ne of my losing sessions that was over 350 units. This one was hard because I think I was playing too high of stakes for my bankroll.

Yep, that'll do it.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I just got back from a 10 hour session and lost 200+ units. Does this happen often? I had a great streak of positive sessions totalling over 700 units. This was a really bad one and it seemed that every time I had my big bets out, the dealer beat me. I feel like I need to get back out there again ASAP and get a winning session started. Its like you feel you have been defeated.

Do it !!! :gun:

No ablution can cleanse you of the feeling of losing, but winning.

Just be prepared for even more losing, despite the odds being in your favor.

Overbetting can give you both staggering wins, and staggering losses. Only problem is: when your losses get too big, you don't get to play anymore. That is the only purpose of bet sizing.

 

[winnawinna]

Do it !!! :gun:

No ablution can cleanse you of the feeling of losing, but winning.

Just be prepared for even more losing, despite the odds being in your favor.

Overbetting can give you both staggering wins, and staggering losses. Only problem is: when your losses get too big, you don't get to play anymore. That is the only purpose of bet sizing.

So do you think playing $50 hands is to high for a 40k BR

 

[Automatic Monkey]

So do you think playing $50 hands is to high for a 40k BR

Depends on a lot of things, but that sounds like it's pretty close to full-Kelly, especially if it's a surrender game.

 

[winnawinna]

Depends on a lot of things, but that sounds like it's pretty close to full-Kelly, especially if it's a surrender game.

Yes 6 deck, LS, DAS DOA, play all....i used to play $25 ph but tried $50 ph and I guess I had a streak of +variance... I love the upswings on the larger minimum but hate the downswings

 

[noharmnofoul]

Depends on a lot of things, but that sounds like it's pretty close to full-Kelly, especially if it's a surrender game.

Sorry for my lack of knowledge, but what does full-Kelly mean?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes 6 deck, LS, DAS DOA, play all....i used to play $25 ph but tried $50 ph and I guess I had a streak of +variance... I love the upswings on the larger minimum but hate the downswings

What kind of a spread are you using?

 

[winnawinna]

What kind of a spread are you using?

1-8 spread

 

[Automatic Monkey]

1-8 spread

Ah that's a problem, not quite enough if you are going to play all. If you can afford a $50-$400 spread, Wonging out of bad counts will make a world of difference in your game. This is where your acting skills come in- when they count goes low, get good at getting out of hands or just changing tables. If it is a large store with a lot of tables and anonymity, the Wong-around works best, but if it is the kind of place where you are very limited in tables you can play, you need to get fancier.

Going to the bathroom, going to the bar, taking or making cell phone calls, all of these things can be worked to get you out of bad hands. One neat one is to feign interest in a ball game that's going on, and get up from the table to run to the bar and cheer/curse the team that you have allegedly put a lot of money on. If you are in Nevada you can even place a bet, to make it realistic and to give you the look and feel of a gambler.

 

[winnawinna]

Ah that's a problem, not quite enough if you are going to play all. If you can afford a $50-$400 spread, Wonging out of bad counts will make a world of difference in your game. This is where your acting skills come in- when they count goes low, get good at getting out of hands or just changing tables. If it is a large store with a lot of tables and anonymity, the Wong-around works best, but if it is the kind of place where you are very limited in tables you can play, you need to get fancier.

Going to the bathroom, going to the bar, taking or making cell phone calls, all of these things can be worked to get you out of bad hands. One neat one is to feign interest in a ball game that's going on, and get up from the table to run to the bar and cheer/curse the team that you have allegedly put a lot of money on. If you are in Nevada you can even place a bet, to make it realistic and to give you the look and feel of a gambler.

Whats crazy though is that I lost most of the money during positive counts. I know its variance and I will be back out there tomorrow

 

[paddywhack]

Whats crazy though is that I lost most of the money during positive counts. I know its variance and I will be back out there tomorrow

Not surprising considering that's when you have the most money on the table.

 

[Gamblor]

Not surprising considering that's when you have the most money on the table.

:grin: New members often seem to have the misunderstanding that at some some high count, oh lets say +4 TC, we have some super huge advantage over the casino. We really never do.

If you were to flip a coin that has a 2% bias towards, oh lets say heads, you wouldn't even notice, until recording many many results.