Bankroll collected, perfect basic strategy learned, hi lo learned, variations learned. Need help

R

Rob Bin

Member
#1
#1
Hello to everyone.
I practiced over 300 hours of counting at home, learned all the deviations, basic strategy , deck estimation, True count conversion and read about 4 Blackjack books, but still I am not sure How to bet with my BR.
I have 10 000$, casino I'll play (Europan Casino ), has 2 boxes x 2$ minimum bet, 80% penetration (depends on dealer, from 75% do 83%), Double on any 2 cards , DAS allowed, Blackjack pays 3:2 , NO SURRENDER AND NO RESPLIT ACES (ONLY 1 SPLIT ACES, OTHER CARDS UP TO 4 TIMES).
MAXIMUM bet is in local currency 40$ per box ( I converter to USD FROM local currency ).
Can anybody Run a simulation for me? I didn't buy cvcx still.
I am comfortable with 1-13% ROR, as I know this od beatable game with conditions I mentioned right?
Can Someone give me advice How he would act in scenario Like mine?
And I would be thankfull if Someone can do one Cvcx SIM for me.
EDIT : 6-DECK GAME
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Rob Bin said:
Hello to everyozne.
I practiced over 300 hours of counting at home, learned all the deviations, basic strategy , deck estimation, True count conversion and read about 4 Blackjack books.
Click to expand...
Wow. Nice job man. This is EXACTLY how you become a winning blackjack player.

Rob Bin said:
, but still I am not sure How to bet with my BR.
.
Click to expand...
It's simple. You just calculate your advantage, then use the following formula.

Bankroll * Advantage * .75.

So in your case if you have a 1% advantage, then you would bet $10,000 * 1% * .75 = $75

Can you tell me if the dealer takes a hole card in your casino, and if not do they win all bets if you double down or split and run into a blackjack?

How many decks do they use?

Does the dealer stand on soft seventeen or hit?
 
R

Rob Bin

Member
#3
#3
I got opsessed with Blackjack and I want to WIN THAT GAME over Long run,
I am willing to put over 1000 hours into that game. I tried to Win before, but with not enough knowledge / bankroll and variance wiped me out. ( But at least I found Casino with excellent pen).

Kelly criterion, I made calculation with that, but they write ROR with Kelly is 13% , How do I make it like 5%?

Europan no hole card Blackjack , 6deck game, they take all Double / splits if dealer has BJ. Dealer Stands on Soft17.

Thanks for response Meistro.
 
Last edited:
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
"Kelly criterion, I made calculation with that, but they write ROR with Kelly is 13% , How do I make it like 5%?"

Just scale down the bets. So for example if you amend the formula to be more like bankroll * advantage * .5 that would probably get you an ROR of more like 5%. And you ROR can be reduced again if you have a plan to decrease your bet size if you lose $3000.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Unfortunately, I was unable to get you a precise estimate of your advantage at the lower true counts, on account of how I am limited to using CVCX online at the moment. If someone with CVCX or CV Data could help out our european friend here that would be appreciated. I sim'd 8 decks, S17, DAS

and got

TC 1 : 0.33%
TC 2 : 0.86%
TC 3 : 1.37%
TC 4 : 1.95%
TC 5 : 2.49%


But your actual advantage could be slightly lower as I did not (could not) simulate your precise rules.

So $10,000 * %0.33 = $33. Then you want to reduce by maybe even 1/3rd to be very safe. It's good to take a very cautious approach especially when you are just beginning.

And you do the same.

$10,000 *%0.86 = $86. Reduce by 1/3rd = $28. Of course you would simplify this to $30 or $25.
 
R

Rob Bin

Member
#6
#6
Meistro said:
Unfortunately, I was unable to get you a precise estimate of your advantage at the lower true counts, on account of how I am limited to using CVCX online at the moment. If someone with CVCX or CV Data could help out our european friend here that would be appreciated. I sim'd 8 decks, S17, DAS

and got

TC 1 : 0.33%
TC 2 : 0.86%
TC 3 : 1.37%
TC 4 : 1.95%
TC 5 : 2.49%


But your actual advantage could be slightly lower as I did not (could not) simulate your precise rules.

So $10,000 * %0.33 = $33. Then you want to reduce by maybe even 1/3rd to be very safe. It's good to take a very cautious approach especially when you are just beginning.

And you do the same.

$10,000 *%0.86 = $86. Reduce by 1/3rd = $28. Of course you would simplify this to $30 or $25.
Click to expand...
EDIT : Thank you very much for your help , I Will Listen your advice and reduce it 1/3 time cause I don't have a lot od experience as investor ( I don't Like when they call card counters gamblers, we are investors).
I only have a lot of practice hours , but only played like 15 hours in casino.
I Will try to get to 200 hours till December.
I Will be cautious, because I wasn't at the beggining, and my BR was wiped out , lost 1500$. ( I overbet my BR )
 
Last edited:
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Make sure you are using the right basic strategy for your rules as well. Don't double against ten or ace, or split against ten or ace except AA v T.
 
R

Rob Bin

Member
#8
#8
Meistro said:
Make sure you are using the right basic strategy for your rules as well. Don't double against ten or ace, or split against ten or ace except AA v T.
Click to expand...
I Double vs 10 or A when I have 10 and TC is +4, otherwise I hit.
I Always Double 11 vs 10 and Double 11 vs A when the TC is +1.
Am I using correct deviation chart for Europan rules ?
I also Always Split 88 and AA against any 2 cards.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
"I Double vs 10 or A when I have 10 and TC is +4, otherwise I hit.
I Always Double 11 vs 10 and Double 11 vs A when the TC is +1.
Am I using correct deviation chart for Europan rules ?"

No, you are not. You are using deviations and basic strategy for a peek game.

Instead, you should never double or split against ten or ace except if you have AA v T.

This is assuming the game you are playing is European No Hole Card, which is to say that in the event of a dealer blackjack after you split or double you lose both (all) bets.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top