bankroll questions

[Kasi]

WTF. are you a mathaemtician or something?

LOL - Absolutely not. Never took a stat or probability course. Pretty much all I can do is add subtract multiply and divide.

Was just tryiing to say you don't necessarily need a large $roll to make $50K year if you are willing to take the higher risk associtaed with a smaller roll.

 

[Kasi]

If only this were true!

We can calculate expected win per hour, but actual wins per hour or per hand is anything but fixed.

The same goes for how many hands it takes to win a particular amount.

Keep in mind that "expected value" really means 50/50 value. We only have a 50/50 chance (if we play a perfect game) of achieving the expected results or better. It not a guarantee.

Right Stan Dev - I should have siad expected value per hand remains the same. But a win of x dollars is expected to occur after a fixed number of hands. We're probably on the same page here I suspect.

 

[StandardDeviant]

Right Stan Dev - I should have siad expected value per hand remains the same. But a win of x dollars is expected to occur after a fixed number of hands. We're probably on the same page here I suspect.

I think we're on the right page. Now if we can get BJK there too...

 

[Kasi]

"In other words, take Table 10.43 in Don's book back-counting 1-3 practically.
With a $10Kroll and $100 unit, your ROR is 14% and you will make $40.39 for every 100 hands you see. It will take you $50000/$40.39= 1238 hours to have an EV of $50K."

Billy didn't say it. I did. I did not say "you will make $40.39 for every 100 hands you PLAY" I said "you will make $40.39 for every 100 hands you SEE".

And, as you say, only being able to PLAY 16% (in this case) or whatever of every 100 hands you SEE while standing around back-counting.

Back-counting results usually seem to be expressed in terms of 100/hds "seen" I guess so one can equate an "hourly" win rate to a play-all game.

You must not back-count much lol.

Basically, in this case the guy makes ~$2.50 for every physical hand he plays but only gets to "play" 16 hds/hr. So $40/hr.

After 20,000 physical hands played, his EV is $50K no matter how long or short of a time it takes him to play those 20,000 hds.

So, no error.

Was just trying to show Billythe K, how a $10K roll could make $50K a year with about a Kelly risk if he was willing to accept that risk,

Heck, N0 would only be about 4000 physical rounds played and if he was still alive after that, he very well could be home free!