Beating CSMS - possible??

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blackjackstudent

Well-Known Member
This is a message for Zengrifter in particular - can CSMs be beaten? How is it possible to track the cards especially when after three to five rounds, the cards are inserted back into the CSM for reshuffling purposes?

I mean the cards from the last round might even appear in the next round after reshuffling. CSMs makes counting impossible and the only logical thing I can deduce from beating CSM is through some voodoo betting system - because no can predict the next card.

Do we get a bunch of high cards followed by a bunch of low cards?
 
UK-21

UK-21

Well-Known Member
Search the Forum and you will see this has been discussed ad infinitum.

CSM can be counted. They can also be beaten if you have a lot of patience, time, zillions of $s and are allowed to make huge spreads. If the dealer is putting five rounds in the discard before putting them back in the shuffler the game is certainly beatable. With a full table of seven players, and an average of 20 cards a round, that's almost two decks out of play before they are reinserted. With three players it'd be over one deck. The usual advantage/disadvantage of high cards/low cards will still apply. I suspect though, that you'd need to spread higher than the table max in order to make it work, and that is the fundimental problem - that and the bankroll you'd need.

I mean the cards from the last round might even appear in the next round after reshuffling.

Bearing in mind how the 1-2-6 works inside, extremely unlikely if not impossible.

Good luck.
 
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blackjackstudent

Well-Known Member
How can a game be beaten with only 33.33% or less penetration. Pros get their shoe cut in half before reshuffling occurs - that is 50% penetration. Its hard with 33.33% penetration or less?
 
UK-21

UK-21

Well-Known Member
Sure is.

Even with the equivalent of 33% penetration, there will be times when there will be additional high cards left in the shoe. So one would assume an advantage - but the more cards that are cut out of play, the greater the chance that these additional high cards will be behind the cutoff and so they won't effect the game. To make up for this, one could raise bets considerably and over the longer term the minor advantage would, I'm sure, pay off. But . . . . the variance of the game would go through the roof - hence my saying you'd need a great deal of time, patience and money to take this on, if indeed the table limits allowed bets that could pull it off.

It is certainly possible to calculate what you'd need to do to beat the game with a 33% pen, but I doubt anyone has ever done it as few will have a bankroll that could cope with the variance.

I think if you're in Australia you're would seem to be stuffed as far as finding a beatable BJ game. Save up for a trip to the States.
 
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blackjackstudent

Well-Known Member
Now that you mentioned that newb99, yes CSM can be beaten through counting but the standard deviation would be very high. Your advantage will not exceed more than 0.4% and there is a high possibility that you could lose - you probably need to employ a bigger spread (say 1-25 spread) and this calls for a big bankroll to minimize RoR. Is playing these machines worth the risk of getting bankrolled?

Most Australian casinos (except Crown) offer S 17 8 deck BJ but most of these casinos will use CSMs except in the VIP sections where you get to play ASM or hand shuffled 8 deck shoes. There is no surrender - the house edge is rougly 0.47% except at Crown where house edge is 0.75%. Is S17 8 deck BJ still playable with no soft doubling but D on 9 , 10 and 11?
 
UK-21

UK-21

Well-Known Member
A CSM dealt game, although beatable in theory, will require a HUGE bankroll and a spread that I would guess would need to be a lot more than 1-25. You're right about the advantage, and I would add that when it happens it will only last for a hand or two as the cards reinserted back into the shuffler will then be liable to put an appearance back in.

The shoe games you detail can also be beaten in theory using counting, but again you will need such a high spread the odds are you will be sussed as a counter and kicked out.

Your call of course, but I would say travel to a better game. Alternatively, if you're not holding an expectation of winning longer term, and you intend to play for fun (by which I mean gambling) flat bet and keep your fingers crossed.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
It is very unlikely that card counting is going to beat the machine (unless the casino procedures are very unusual). Read through some of the old threads to get a better idea of where the machines might be vulnerable.

-Sonny-
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
Sonny said:
It is very unlikely that card counting is going to beat the machine (unless the casino procedures are very unusual). Read through some of the old threads to get a better idea of where the machines might be vulnerable.

-Sonny-
Click to expand...
What Sonny said.
 
E

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
Re

To beat the CSM's is as daunting and difficult as if you give a cow
a piece of sugar and lick as long at the cows a.. till it tasts sweet.

Good luck El Hombre :devil:
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
bjcount said:
I'm not too familiar with playing machine shuffled games, nor the remotely possible reliabilility of the site, but here's a link for Boris's site:

http://www.borisbj21.com/Page28/page28b.html
Click to expand...
Just be aware that some of the descriptions on that website are not accurate. The theory is correct but some of the specific details are incorrect. Also, the betting advice is pure voodoo and I do not have any faith in his software products. Other than that, it's actually a pretty good description of how the machines operate. :)

You aren't going to find too much detail about the CSM's weaknesses on a public forum, but you will find posts that lead you in the right direction. Once you find some potential vulnerabilities you will have to do all of the work yourself. Search through the Advanced Strategies forum for some pearls of wisdom.

-Sonny-
 
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bigplayer

Well-Known Member
Beating CSM's

blackjackstudent said:
How can a game be beaten with only 33.33% or less penetration. Pros get their shoe cut in half before reshuffling occurs - that is 50% penetration. Its hard with 33.33% penetration or less?
Click to expand...
Generally you can't but under certain circumstances possibly. These would include:

1. Great rules (Early Surrender)
2. Rebates on Losses and Airfare reimbursements when you never flew.
3. Great Mail Coupons

You get the picture.
 
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