Best AP play

JJP

Well-Known Member
#2
There's no rush. When a chart goes parabolic, it is broken for a long time. I can't think of any exceptions. All one needs to do is look at many of the tech stocks from the 1998-2000 bubble that burst. Yes, a few survived, but it took a long time for many to come back. To Bitcoin's credit, it is trying to consolidate and hasn't completely crashed. The downtrend has slowed but it still is a downtrend. I think the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin would be to fall back and test the support level around 7000. Then if it would hold on the double bottom, it would be bullish. But too early to speculate on that.
 

JJP

Well-Known Member
#5
Good Guy said:
I wish one day someone could explain what it means when they say "testing support level"
Technical analysis term. Within any chart, there are levels of support and resistance. Support levels are previous price points where the stock can (temporarily) bottom and bounce. Resistance is just the opposite; a stock may be on the rise but a look at the chart shows that it can't get past certain levels. And once a stock falls thru support, or breaks thru resistance, that trend is expected to continue for the short term. The strongest points of both support and resistance tend to be accompanied by strong trading volume.
 

JJP

Well-Known Member
#7
Time will tell. Those that got in early made big money but many got on board last December and January when it peaked and they've been buried. I've thought about using Bitcoin for a deposit for my offshore account, but not at these levels. It's still really volatile. If it's $1000 three months from now, I won't be surprised. If its $15k three months from now I will be a bit surprised but not shocked. It still needs more time to consolidate.
 

JJP

Well-Known Member
#10
johndoe said:
All of these schemes work wonderfully, until they don't.
Are you referring to Bitcoin or Technical Analysis? And no, nothing works all the time. A card counter should certainly know that. I used to believe TA was mumbo jumbo. I thought I dodged some damage in the dot.com meltdown and got back into the market in 2002. A full year too early. Had I known TA back then, it would've saved a decent amount of money. The fact is, most trading houses rely largely on various TA points in their trading algorithms. Yes, fundamentals absolutely matter. When a company reports a great quarter, its rarely a surprise. Word has leaked out long before report date. And in the perfect world, there would be no insider trading, but we all know that isn't true. That's how the charts can lead the fundamentals.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#11
I was referring to any of these unproven techniques that is shown to work "sometimes", for some kind of success, and is then taken to generalize as a +EV strategy. I'm pretty sure TA is voodoo, comparable to betting "streaks" and whatnot in blackjack.
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#12
Technical analysis only works when everyone in the stock or company or in this case currency is 'doing' it and not because it has any foundation or credibility to it, but only because of its trading history. Best way to invest is to do it slow and steady and invest in a low cost index fund and letting it compound year after year as you add to it. Get rid of any debt you have and start investing anything you have in your mid 20s and more each year and youll be set in 30 years.

In the case of bitcoin it 'is' a technical analysis type of investment. Most of the people are just flipping it back and forth, especially the big fish. If you wanna get into bitcoin, youre better just doing it as a flip and using technical analysis like JJP has been doing, but I suggest you take a look at RSI and not just support levels etc.

I dont use support and resistance levels with this, but if you look at the 4 year or 5 year RSI(Relative Strength Index) it is so PREDICTABLE and it's basically a traders paradise. Everytime it reaches the oversold levels around 25 or 30, it shoots up to 70-80 oversold levels whether it takes a month or 3 months is irrelevant, the point is it will do it every time, which is more proof that no one actually believes in bitcoin as a long term investment, people are simply buying bitcoin to trade it up and down for a quick flip. The price levels are showing some long term growth over the years, but in my opinion it is mostly a traders paradise type of investment until bitcoin goes mainstream.

Ive been watching bitcoin for a year or so now, but have yet to put money into it. I rather not do that to my bankroll at this point in time even though ive nailed every single prediction with it the last 2-3 times of when it will rise and fall. Just go check the WOV bitcoin forum thread.
 
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JJP

Well-Known Member
#13
Want to make money from (the) gambling (business)? With the ban on sports betting lifted, there's a number of companies that figure to benefit. Disney, parent company of ESPN comes to mind. ESPN has been plagued by losing subscribers the past 2 years but that figures to change now. In the 19th century, they say the real winners were the sellers of picks and shovels. ESPN is selling the "picks and shovels" now. How about MGM? They and Caesers own a good bulk of the Strip properties and MGM already has secured its sportsbook license for New Jersey. Investor's Business Daily likes a couple of smaller names: Boyd and Penn Gaming. Boyd is the parent of the Orleans and Gold Coast.
 
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