BJ Math for Dummies?

T

TwuntyWun

Member
I do not have a great math mind. Although I am pretty bright and can learn most things easily, math is more difficult for me. I have never been driven to get past that before. My game is now progressing to the point that I really need to understand more of the math of it.

Can anyone (Eliot?) recommend some good self-study books to help me learn? I have never taken a Probability, Statistics, or Calculus course, and have forgotten almost all of the algebra that I learned when I was a kid, so the approach needs to be basic and simple! Am I hoping for too much?

Thanks,

TW
 
Suggestions

On the left hand side of the screen, there's a list of links, third from the bottom is a "Reading List" link.

There are enough books there to keep you happy for a long time.

It's a misconception that the math behind counting is "hard" math. The fundamental mechanics of Hi-Lo involves the ability to add and subtract 1. On a basic level, you can count cards effectively adding and subtracting the number 1. If you count each card as it comes out of the deck, the count in your head goes someting like this, "3, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -1...." and so on. It doesn't change. This isn't calculus...it's addition and subtraction...and, every now and then, you need to adjust with division to get your "true count" if you're playing a multi deck game. Unbalanced systems take even that conversion out of the mix.

The "hard" of counting cards is the self control and the dedication to learning to count multiple cards at a time ( to make a non-math analogy, counting several cards at once is like reading a word instead of a letter.) , learning to count accurately very quickly, and learning to us that count to adjust basic strategy. None of those things are "math"....they are practice and practice.

I'm not a math-minded person either...approach it like it's a new language.

Good luck...the mechanics behind counting aren't that hard...but having the dedication to develop the skill can be very hard. Take it slow. Don't play in casinos with real money until you're confident enough that you can watch a card game on TV in a crowded sports-bar, while flirting with the bartender or waitress, and know the balance of the remaining deck.

practice. practice. practice.
 
don't understand

I'm not sure why you need to know more about probability and statistics. I guess it helps to understand it a little but unless you want to become the greatest bj player that ever lived, I would think that one or two bj books is enough. Actually, the mathematics of bj is pretty complex. Have you read through Peter Griffin's Theory of Blackjack? I've had 5 years of college mathematics and couldn't understand a lot of it. If you really want the math of it, that is the book but it won't really help you make any money. If you want to make money, read about about casino surveillance and casino management and learn what makes pit bosses tick.
 
A slight addition/rewording

John is absolutely right,

The math involved with the game of blackjack get very complex...particularly the math of determining odds, playing strategies, and the like.

We (math minded and non math-minded) should all remember and be thankfull that there are people out there who have done that extensive number-crunching so that we don't have to. People like Stanford Wong have beautifully worked the difficult math into something accessible and approachable...People like Eliot who have dozens of essays that take the math-mystery out of the numbers, and put them into laymans terms.

The math behind it all *is* complicated. Fortunately, executing the resulting strategies are far less so.

Thanks to all of you math-minded folk out there who have given us such workable systems!
 
I should add

Twentywun,

I am not sure where you are in your skills. Are you having difficulty on the tables ? Not earning enough ? I would suggest that you get qfit's CVCX and CVDATA at the qfit.com website. These programs will help you make more money because they can tell you what your optimal spread for nearly any particular game. I apologize if I was too harsh. It does seem like their is a wealth of mathematics that can be applied to bj. It is very difficult to apply any kind of probability or odds to a bj game while the game is in progress. Also, I can't remember who it was but a famous bj player once figured out a technique that would enable him to know every single last card remaining in a single deck of cards. He decided to show his friends his new technique and he was accurate down to the card and suit. Then his friend asked him, "ok, you got a 9 and a 7 and then dealer is showing a 10, do you hit or stand. " He replied, "I have no idea." It went something like that. It was funny because he was using his toes, his stomach muscles, and everything else to keep track of these cards but he had no idea what to do with this information. I think I read this in "World's Greatest Bj Book".
 
AAAH! Don't say that!

Oh no. Ever since I read that article, every time I'm in the casino and I see someone who resembles a duck, I can't get "7 duckboy 3" out of my head. Screws up my counting. If I ever meet anyone named Farley, I'd better leave.
 
Good math books *LINK*

> I do not have a great math mind. Although I am pretty bright and can learn
> most things easily, math is more difficult for me. I have never been driven
> to get past that before. My game is now progressing to the point that I
> really need to understand more of the math of it.

I'm was in the same place about a year ago, then I read through "The Mathematics of Games and Gambling" by Edward Packel. It gave me a great understanding of basic probability theory. Pretty much everything else you need to know about the math behind blackjack is in Schesinger's "Blackjack Attack." They are both very well written and explain the math very simply. That is where I would suggest you start.

-Sonny-
 
Thanks, More info...

Thanks, HiNoon. Your words of advice are certainly accurate & should be of great use to a new counter. I guess I should have been more specific rather than simply stating "my game has now progressed to the point that..."

I have been counting for over a year. I have no trouble with the actual counting/playing/chatting/being aware of my surroundings/ordering drinks, etc. I learned recently that I can backcount two almost-full 6D tables simultaneously, which was a very cool discovery. (Now, if I could just learn to do that without looking so obvious, I might be able to do something with it.)

What I want to be able to do now is to analyze my game and find how I can make it stronger, and to analyze games available to me to find the best way of taking advantage, etc. I want to understand Co-Variance, Certainty Equivalents, etc. Through experience & necessity I have learned about Standard Deviation, N0, variance, and such. I feel I need to go deeper now and without a background in math, I am finding it difficult.

Thanks,

TW
 
May your reach exceed your grasp.

Thanks again to HiNoon and to John,

I think I answered some of your questions in my response to HiNoon above re: my level of play.

As for two books being more than enough, I guess I must be a) an overachiever or b) exceptionally dense :o) as I have already read at least 8 and am still wanting to learn more. Now--have I understood everything I read? Not even close. Griffin makes me dizzy and I believe myself to be incapable of grasping it all without an understanding of the basic concepts. And, while I certainly acknowledge and appreciate Don's contributions in BJA, and have learned *much* from it, I also find it to be quite choppy and confusing in some areas. I finally grasp something, and then a few chapters later, in another essay, I read that what he *once* believed and presented in a previous chapter, after further study and evaluation, is not the whole story, etc.

I own BJRM and don't use it as often as I should. I am grateful to Griffin, Schlesinger, Wong, and all the other website hosts (Thanks, Eliot!) & authors I have read as well as the posters on sites like this. I also acknowledge and agree with you that the math is complex. But I don't accept that because others already understand it all and have boiled various parts of it down for people like me means I should not attempt to understand it all!

I am grateful for your reaction to my question, because it has helped me to clarify my goals and reasons for pursuing them. I am pretty determined to learn the math concepts myself and not rely completely on the Masters for spoon feeding me what they have determined I need to know. I would guess that Wong & Schlesinger would be among the first to encourage such an endeavor. Their contributions have been a gold mine for many, but they have also spawned a generation of counters who are happy to have had someone else do all the work for them and are content to simply reap the rewards with little *real* understanding. I have been among this group, and I'm looking to reach higher.

I recall a blessing that goes something like, "May your reach exceed your grasp." That's where I'm heading with this.

Thanks,

TW
 
The next level *LINK*

> I have been counting for over a year. I have no trouble with the actual
> counting/playing/chatting/being aware of my surroundings/ordering drinks,
> etc. I learned recently that I can backcount two almost-full 6D tables
> simultaneously, which was a very cool discovery. (Now, if I could just learn
> to do that without looking so obvious, I might be able to do something with
> it.)

All serious counter will reach the point you are at. You have learned the necessary skills and can execute them in a casino environment. There are many directions to branch off from this point.

Many players will focus on their game and learn methods to become an even better player. They may learn more indices, try shuffle tracking or ace sequencing, or work out new acts that will allow them a greater bet spread.

Other players will begin to focus on the math stuff. This includes bankroll and bet sizing, risk of ruin analysis, EVs for different games (or playing styles), etc. It sounds like you are in this group. Since you already have some software, that is the easiest way to compare games. I have a spreadsheet that has the stats for all the different games I have ever seen. I have different pages for different numbers of decks and sections for different rules and bet spreads. I track the EV, STD, ROR, N0 and much more for each game so I can easily see which games are worth the most to me. Although Wonging into a great 6D game with a $5-$40 spread is nice, it's not worth nearly as much as a standard 2D game with a $3-$35 play-all approach (for roughly the same risk). This is good to know.

I think your search for mathematical understanding is a very natural progression that all serious players eventually realize. I wish you the best of luck in your search. You have made a perfect first step: you have registered at this website. The people here have taught me most of what I know about the REALITY of card counting. Welcome.

> What I want to be able to do now is to analyze my game and find how I can
> make it stronger, and to analyze games available to me to find the best way
> of taking advantage, etc. I want to understand Co-Variance, Certainty
> Equivalents, etc. Through experience & necessity I have learned about
> Standard Deviation, N0, variance, and such. I feel I need to go deeper now
> and without a background in math, I am finding it difficult.

Check out the link below. The math can be a little tricky at times, but the explanations are good. Remember - you don't need to understand every piece of a complicated formula, you just need to know how to make the formula work for you. I don't understand half of the things that Griffin or Epstein say, but I know how to use their formulas to get the results I need. It is MUCH more fun to let someone else come up with the answers then just copy off of their paper! How do you think I got straight C+s all through school?

-Sonny-
 
You've been spying on me!

Sonny,

Thanks again for your insight. Yes, You are absolutely correct. That's where I find myself! I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I will never be a BJ Theorist. I will never know the math that well, nor would I want to, I think! But I do want to add a basic unserstanding of it all to my AP toolbox. When I go to BJRM, I'd like to be able to test a hypothesis rather than be repeatedly amazed at the results I get.

I have indeed been learning new indices and dabbling with learning ST among other things. I have also been trying to improve my self-discipline/self-control. I do tend to steam and I need to stay on top of that. It is a useful act, but when the act becomes too close to reality, only bad things happen.

Thanks for the link to the BJ Math site. I knew about that site before I cared to read any of it, and forgot about it. I'll look forward to spending some time there now :o)

Thanks for the welcome and the help!

TW
 
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