- Thread starter Cardcounter
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1*155/311*154/310*153/309 = 12.26%.

Average value of a hand in blackjack is 49.5%, but since a blackjack pays 1:1, that lowers it by about 2.5% to 47%. The chance of winning at least one hand is 1-(0.47^2) = 77.9%.

so you have

12.26% will loose 1

32.1% will loose 1

77.9% will win 1, if you pick the right hand, else loose.

Standard deviation in blackjack is 1.3 and 1.4 for two hands. Meaning if you take the best hand, you will still only be correct 10% of the time more than you are incorrect. so about 77.9/2 -5 = 33.95% you pick the wrong hand, and 43.95 you pick the right hand.

So all up I would say you win 1:1 43.95% of the time and loose 1:1 the rest of the time, for a house edge of about 12.1%

this is a rough guesstimate only.

Obviously high counts would amplifty the rate at which the house edge favour you though. It would be interesting to see when it becomes profitable to bet. Only have to have 1 hand hit a 18/19/20 to win would be awesome.

zengrifter said:

Why does Wong say it might be posi-EV for a smart player? zg

With my theory, you can get +'ve ev situations, although it involves extra work at the table. These situations arise, independent of the 'count', but will depend greatly on the penetration of the shoe.

Of course, my theory may be different from Wong's.

zengrifter said:

Why does Wong say it might be posi-EV for a smart player? zg

So now we have a game that pays 1.78:1 (average) for a naturals, but how much does it cost when you are forced to add the press bet to hands with -ev? Is it double the normal house edge minus the extra payout for a natural?

A bs for this side bet surely must be place the bet with the highest ev (sometimes least -ev). bjmath.com has every hand vs. dealer up card ev values. I would imagine you could figure out the house edge that way. You'd have to sit at the table with a whole chart to play optimally, if you are counting too, that might be a little suspicious. Hmm...maybe I will take the time to do this if there is some interest.

Josh

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If you had a blackjack and a 11 vs a 5 or 6 with the press bet you always take the natural. The natural will win 100% of the time and the 11 vs 5-6 will only win 60% of the time. $10 press bet Plus $10 win equals $20! Compare that to $20*.6=$12-$20*.4=8 for a $4 average win. A $10 average win vs a $4 average win what would you pick?

zengrifter said:

Wong says (MAYBE) -

- Two BJ bets lose at 2.9% each
- Press bet wins at 12%

If you were allowed to 'Press' only the hands that you wanted to then the value of the 'press' bet jumps to around 24%. This would leave a +'ve figure of around 12%. I'm not sure but maybe Wong overlooked that players must 'Press' even if they have 2 bad hands i.e. 15 & 16. Alternatively, he may have overlooked the 'Same Color' compensation.

Geoff Hall said:

The value of the 'Press' bet is pretty much negated by the condition that you lose your 'Press' if you have 4 cards of the same color.

If you were allowed to 'Press' only the hands that you wanted to then the value of the 'press' bet jumps to around 24%. This would leave a +'ve figure of around 12%. I'm not sure but maybe Wong overlooked that players must 'Press' even if they have 2 bad hands i.e. 15 & 16. Alternatively, he may have overlooked the 'Same Color' compensation.

If you were allowed to 'Press' only the hands that you wanted to then the value of the 'press' bet jumps to around 24%. This would leave a +'ve figure of around 12%. I'm not sure but maybe Wong overlooked that players must 'Press' even if they have 2 bad hands i.e. 15 & 16. Alternatively, he may have overlooked the 'Same Color' compensation.

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Cardcounter said:

If you had a blackjack and a 11 vs a 5 or 6 with the press bet you always take the natural. The natural will win 100% of the time and the 11 vs 5-6 will only win 60% of the time. $10 press bet Plus $10 win equals $20! Compare that to $20*.6=$12-$20*.4=8 for a $4 average win. A $10 average win vs a $4 average win what would you pick?

All in all, it's not any worse than a regular 6 deck shoe. I think the harrah's has changed some more rules for the worse but I need to double check that.

Josh